Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction
We are predicting a 1-1 draw. Our model gives the draw 35%, Forest 34% and Leeds 31%, from expected goals of 1.00 to 0.94. Over 2.5 goals comes out at just 31%, and a goalless draw alone at 16%.
The draw at 35% is the highest figure we have published on any fixture, and it is not a quirk of the model. Forest have drawn eight of their last twenty and Leeds nine. Both have exactly six wins, and Leeds have lost only five matches in twenty.
Forest carry the strangest split in our data. They have scored eight goals in ten home matches — 0.80 a game — and twenty-two in ten away, at 2.20. No other side we have covered comes close to that reversal.
The market has Forest at 41%, so we are seven points below on the favourite and seven above on the draw. That follows directly from taking their home scoring record seriously rather than discounting it.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Betting Tips
1. Under 3.5 Goals. This has landed in 14 of Forest’s last 20 matches and 14 of Leeds’. Forest score 0.80 a game at the City Ground and Leeds have failed to score in seven of twenty.
2. The Draw. Eight draws in twenty for Forest and nine for Leeds — seventeen between them in forty matches. Our model makes it 35%, the highest we have published.
3. Under 3.5 Total Cards. Referee Robert Jones books 2.92 players a game and shows 0.04 reds. Forest’s matches produce 3.00 cards and Leeds’ 3.70, so both measures sit below the line.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Stats
| Market | Nottingham Forest | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Home scored / conceded | 0.80 / 0.80 | 1.20 / 0.90 |
| Away scored / conceded | 2.20 / 1.50 | 1.20 / 1.50 |
| Won, drawn, lost | 6-8-6 | 6-9-5 |
| Failed to score | 5 of 20 | 7 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.35 | 3.80 |
| Shots outside the box | 5.40 | 3.70 |
| Cards in match | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| First half cards | 0.70 | 1.60 |
Figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Key Stats
- 8 goals in 10 home matches for Forest, against 22 in 10 away
- 17 draws in 40 matches between the two sides, eight for Forest and nine for Leeds
- 5 defeats in 20 for Leeds, the fewest of any side we have covered, alongside only six wins
- 7 of 20 — matches in which Leeds have failed to score
- 1.60 of Leeds’ 3.70 cards come in the first half, the highest share we have recorded
- 5.40 shots from outside the box a game for Forest, the most of any side this week
- 2.92 yellow cards a game for referee Robert Jones, with a red card rate of 0.04
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Team News
Leeds are without Wilfried Gnonto and Gabriel Gudmundsson, both with hamstring injuries, and Mateo Joseph is out until January with a knee problem.
Forest have Chris Wood doubtful with a thigh injury carrying a return date of 24 August, two days after this match. Ola Aina and Elliot Anderson are both available.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Corners and Cards
Corners are low on both sides. Forest take 5.10 a game and Leeds 4.35, a combined 9.45 — under 9.5 has landed in 13 of Forest’s last twenty. Forest do take 3.10 of theirs in the first half, an unusually high share.
Cards lean under. Forest’s matches produce 3.00 across both sides and Leeds’ 3.70, and Robert Jones books 2.92 a game with a red card rate of 0.04. On the teams’ figures over 3.5 reads 43%; on the referee’s it reads 33%.
One oddity worth a bet. Leeds take 1.60 of their 3.70 cards before half time — 43% of them, the highest share of any side in our data — against Forest’s 0.70. That makes a first-half cards line more interesting here than the full-match total.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
