Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction
We are predicting a 1-0 Brighton win. Our model gives them 44%, the draw 32% and Aston Villa 24%, from expected goals of 1.31 to 0.92. Under 2.5 goals comes out at 62% and both teams to score at 45%.
The market has Brighton at exactly 44% too. That is the second time this weekend our figure has landed on the price — Everton against Crystal Palace was 44% against 44% as well — and both were fixtures between two ordinary Premier League sides needing no adjustment of any kind.
Brighton have gone over 3.5 goals in 15% of their last twenty, the second lowest rate we have recorded behind Birmingham City, and they concede 0.90 a game at the Amex. Villa concede 1.50 both home and away and have kept four clean sheets in twenty.
We are six points above the market on the draw and eight below on Villa, which is where the small disagreement sits.
Brighton vs Aston Villa Betting Tips
1. Under 3.5 Goals. This has landed in 17 of Brighton’s last 20 matches. They have seen four goals in a match three times all season, and Villa’s away record produces 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
2. Under 2.5 Goals. Eleven of Brighton’s last 20 and eleven of Villa’s. Our model makes it 62%, with Brighton conceding 0.90 a game at home.
3. Over 3.5 Total Cards. Brighton’s matches produce 4.15 cards across both sides and Villa’s 3.75, and Brighton collect 2.10 themselves against Villa’s 1.55. Referee Peter Bankes books 2.94 a game.
Brighton vs Aston Villa Stats
| Market | Brighton | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.50 |
| Won, drawn, lost | 8-5-7 | 7-5-8 |
| Clean sheets | 6 of 20 | 4 of 20 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 35% |
| Expected goals against | 1.17 | 1.47 |
| Shots inside the box | 8.90 | 8.55 |
| Shots outside the box | 3.85 | 5.20 |
| Final third entries | 56.50 | 48.20 |
| Cards in match | 4.15 | 3.75 |
Figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Brighton vs Aston Villa Key Stats
- £346m of players sold between the two clubs this summer, including Morgan Rogers to Chelsea for £138m
- 3 of 20 — Brighton matches to go over 3.5 goals, the second lowest rate we have recorded
- 17 of 20 — Brighton matches to finish under 3.5 goals
- 0.90 goals conceded at home by Brighton, against 1.50 by Villa home and away
- 5.20 shots from outside the box a game for Villa, against Brighton’s 3.85
- 2.10 cards a game collected by Brighton themselves, against Villa’s 1.55
- 44% — both our model and the market’s price on a Brighton win, the second exact match this weekend
Brighton vs Aston Villa Team News
The two clubs have sold £346m of players between them this summer, and it has stripped both squads of familiar names.
Aston Villa lost Morgan Rogers to Chelsea for £138m, Youri Tielemans to Manchester United, Donyell Malen to Roma and Lucas Digne to Paris Saint-Germain. Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara are both long-term injuries, and Ollie Watkins is not in the expected eleven with Tammy Abraham starting.
Brighton lost Jan Paul van Hecke to Tottenham for £60m, Danny Welbeck to Chelsea, Joël Veltman to West Ham and Carl Rushworth to Coventry, while James Milner has retired. Yankuba Minteh and Evan Ferguson are both injured.
Brighton vs Aston Villa Corners and Cards
Cards are the one market with a case. Brighton’s matches produce 4.15 across both sides and Villa’s 3.75, a combined 3.95, and Brighton collect 2.10 themselves against Villa’s 1.55.
Referee Peter Bankes books 2.94 players a game, which sits mid-range among the eight Premier League officials we have covered — their figures run from Farai Hallam on 2.57 to Jarred Gillett on 3.45. On the two sides’ records over 3.5 cards reads 58%; on his it reads 46%.
Corners are close and not worth a price. Brighton take 4.90 a game and Villa 5.30, with first-half figures of 2.25 and 2.20 that are within a rounding error.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
