Dan Burn is booked 0.57 times per 90 minutes, more often than any player starting in this weekend’s fixtures, and he faces Liverpool under Stuart Attwell — the strictest of the nine Premier League referees whose records we have examined. On our numbers that makes him roughly a 45% chance to see a card at St James’ Park.
Below are the nine players whose card records and referees point the same way, with the reasoning for each and the two cases where the numbers look better than they are.
Players Most Likely to Be Booked
| Player | Club | Cards per 90 | Last six | Referee | Our estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Burn | Newcastle | 0.57 | 2 of 6 | Attwell 4.61 | 45% |
| Cristhian Mosquera | Arsenal | 0.48 | 2 of 6 | Bramall 4.30 | 37% |
| Lewie Coyle | Hull City | 0.42 | 1 of 6 | England 4.55 | 37% |
| Mats Wieffer | Brighton | 0.50 | 2 of 6 | Bankes 4.14 | 35% |
| Frank Onyeka | Coventry | 0.44 | 2 of 6 | Bramall 4.30 | 34% |
| Pedro Porro | Tottenham | 0.39 | 3 of 6 | Oliver 3.90 | 30% |
| Luke Shaw | Man Utd | 0.32 | 3 of 6 | England 4.55 | 28% |
| Alexis Mac Allister | Liverpool | 0.30 | 2 of 6 | Attwell 4.61 | 27% |
| Diego Gómez | Brighton | 0.33 | 2 of 6 | Bankes 4.14 | 26% |
Cards per 90 covers each player’s last 20 appearances. Referee figures are the official’s average across his last three Premier League seasons. Our estimate combines the two across expected minutes.
Which Player Is Most Likely to Be Booked This Weekend?
Dan Burn, and it is not close on the raw rate. He has been booked six times in 951 minutes, a rate of 0.57 per 90 that is the highest of any player expected to start across the weekend’s fixtures.
The referee makes it stronger. Stuart Attwell books 4.61 players a game across his last three Premier League seasons, the most of the nine officials we have examined, and produces a card every 4.59 fouls — quicker than any of them.
Newcastle also collect 2.10 cards a game to Liverpool’s 1.20, the widest gap between two sides in our data.
Why Does the Referee Matter So Much for Card Bets?
Because the spread between officials is large enough to move a marginal bet either way. Attwell books 4.61 players a game; Paul Tierney books 3.76. That is nearly a full card between two Premier League referees taking charge of the same standard of football.
Most published referee averages will not tell you this. They cover a whole career, including non-league and European fixtures, and for the nine officials we checked they understated the Premier League figure by an average of 1.19 cards a game.
Our full breakdown is in our Premier League referee card stats guide.
Which Card Records Are Misleading?
Two of them, and both for the same reason: a healthy-looking rate built on a short run of minutes. A single booking early in a substitute’s season produces a per-90 figure a regular starter cannot match, and card records suffer from this more than any other market.
Cristhian Mosquera shows 0.48 cards per 90 from 564 minutes — three bookings across what amounts to six full matches. His last six read 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0. The rate is real but it rests on very little.
Marc Guehi does not appear in our table at all despite a 0.33 rate, because it comes from 270 minutes. One booking in three matches tells you nothing.
Luke Shaw is the opposite case. His 0.32 per 90 is modest and sits seventh on rate, but he has been booked in three of his last six — the best sequence of anyone here — from 1,676 minutes, the largest sample on the page.
Why Is Luke Shaw Worth a Second Look?
Because his sequence is better than his average. Booked in three of his last six matches is the strongest recent run of any player on this list, and it comes from the biggest minutes total, so there is no small-sample distortion behind it.
He also faces Darren England, who books 4.55 players a game in the Premier League — a figure widely published as 2.91, because his career average still carries sixty National League fixtures from over a decade ago.
Hull commit 11.00 fouls a game, and Shaw will spend the afternoon defending against a promoted side happy to break up play.
Which Defender Is Most at Risk in Brighton vs Aston Villa?
Mats Wieffer, at 0.50 cards per 90 from 726 minutes, with two bookings in his last six matches. He is the highest-rated card candidate in the fixture on either side, and Brighton’s matches produce 4.15 cards across both teams while the club collect 2.10 themselves against Villa’s 1.55.
Diego Gómez is the alternative on 0.33 per 90, and he adds 2.41 fouls a game — the higher foul count of the two, even if the card rate is lower.
Peter Bankes referees and books 4.14 a game in the Premier League, against a published career figure of 2.94.
How Do We Calculate the Likelihood?
We take each player’s cards per 90 minutes across his last 20 appearances, apply it over the minutes he is expected to play, and scale the result by the referee’s Premier League card average against the 4.24 average of the nine officials we have measured.
It is an estimate rather than a price, and it assumes the player starts and stays on. Check the team sheet before backing any of these — an hour on the pitch instead of ninety minutes cuts the chance by roughly a third.
More Card Tips and Guides
Every fixture we cover carries a card section with the referee’s record and the two sides’ own figures. See our cards tips for this weekend’s selections, and the Premier League referee card stats guide for the full breakdown by official.
Live Card Tips
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
