Our Sunderland vs Fulham bet builder tips, predictions and best bets compare every record against the price.
Noah Sadiki has drawn two or more fouls in five of his last six and is 7/4. Antonee Robinson is 11/10 for four tackles with one in six. Our model and the market agree to within two points.
Sunderland vs Fulham
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Prices are bet365 and were checked on 29 August.
Sunderland vs Fulham Key Stats and Insights
- 5 of 6 for Noah Sadiki drawing two or more fouls, at 7/4 — that is 83% against an implied 36%, the widest gap in favour of a record we have found this weekend.
- 1 of 6 for Antonee Robinson making four tackles, priced at 11/10 — an implied 48% against a 17% record.
- 6 goals in 9 away matches for Fulham at 0.67 a game, against 1.55 at Craven Cottage.
- 3.90 cards a game for Michael Salisbury across 42 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, against a published career figure of 2.49 — a gap of 1.41. Every one of our card tips uses the level rate rather than the career one.
- 2.40 own cards a game for Sunderland, whose matches averaged 4.55 — the higher of the two by nearly a card.
- 8 blanks in 20 for Fulham, the higher failed-to-score count on the page.
- 50 tackles for Enzo Le Fée, the most in either squad, in a side that makes only 14.05 a game.
Sunderland vs Fulham Bet Builder Tips
N. Sadiki 2+ Fouls Drawn — 5 of His Last 6, 7/4
Three, two, one, two, three and two in his last six, at 1.32 per 90 across 1,570 minutes. Two or more in five of them is 83% and the price implies 36% — the widest gap in favour of a record anywhere on this weekend’s card.
He has also been fouled in all six, so the floor is one rather than nought. That matters more than the average on a market like this, and it is why the sequence does the work rather than the per-90.
Sunderland are fouled 2.40 times a game in the final third against Fulham’s 1.50, the higher figure of the two, and Sadiki is the midfielder they build through at 1,570 minutes. What beats it is Fulham’s discipline — 10.75 fouls a game is the lower count, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page explains why the opposition’s habits matter as much as the player’s.
E. Smith Rowe 2+ Tackles — 4 of His Last 6, 13/8
Two, two, two, one, three and one in his last six, at 2.07 per 90 across 1,176 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 38%.
The consistency is the argument. Four of those six are exactly two, which is the profile a 1.5 line wants — no single match inflating an average and no zeros in the run. Twenty-seven tackles from an attacking midfielder is unusual volume.
Fulham make 16.80 tackles a game to Sunderland’s 14.05 despite holding more of the ball, so the work is there. The risk is minutes rather than rate: two of his last six were 67 minutes or fewer, and a substitution on the hour would leave this a tackle short.
B. Brobbey 2+ Fouls — 4 of His Last 6, 6/5
Two, one, two, three, three and one in his last six, at 1.71 per 90 across 1,475 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 45%.
A forward committing fouls at a midfielder’s rate is the shape worth looking for, and Brobbey does it for a side that commits 11.65 a game — the higher of the two figures here. He has fouled in all six, so like Sadiki the floor is one.
Michael Salisbury supports it. He books 3.90 a game across 42 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, above what a career figure of 2.49 would suggest, so fouls in this fixture are more likely to be given than that number implies. What beats the leg is Brobbey being withdrawn — three of his last six were 72 minutes or fewer.
Why Three Legs and Not Four
Three, because the fourth would have been a worse bet than the three above it.
Enzo Le Fée at two or more tackles is the strongest single selection on this page — 83% against an implied 50% at Evens — but it sits in the same market group as Smith Rowe, and we do not take two legs from one group. It is a pointer above instead.
The obvious alternatives do not survive the prices. Antonee Robinson at four tackles implies 48% against a record of one in six. Kenny Tete at two tackles implies 82% against 67%. Brobbey to score implies 35% against a record of one goal in his last six. Our bet builder tips page sets out why we would rather publish three legs than pad a fourth.
All three need the match to be contested rather than comfortable, which is the concentration worth knowing. On a fixture the market cannot separate, that is a reasonable thing to rely on.
Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction
We are predicting 1-0 to Sunderland. Our model gives them 39%, the draw 27% and Fulham 34%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.20.
The market says 39.6%, 28.6% and 31.9% — agreement inside two points on every outcome. That is the second fixture this weekend where our number and the price land in the same place, and both needed no adjustment: same division, same records, nothing to regress.
The soft spot is Fulham’s squad rather than the method. Jiménez, Wilson, Lukić, Diop and Chukwueze have all gone since these figures were made, and Fulham scored six goals in nine away matches with those players available. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
Get a Free Bet for Sunderland vs Fulham
New customers can claim a welcome offer from any of the bookmakers below and use it on Sunday’s two o’clock kick-off at the Stadium of Light.
More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Tackles and fouls prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Players to be booked this weekend
- Shots on target prop bets across the round
- Premier League betting tips all season
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.