Our Leeds vs Brentford bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from the closest fixture on the card. James Justin has made three tackles or more in five of his last six and is 11/10.
Igor Thiago is 3/10 to hit the target with two in six. Our model splits it 37 apiece.
Leeds vs Brentford
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Prices are bet365 and were checked on 29 August.
Leeds vs Brentford Key Stats and Insights
- 5 of 6 for James Justin making three tackles or more, at 11/10 — that is 83% against an implied 48%. Sixty tackles across 1,736 minutes is the highest total in either squad.
- 2 of 6 for Igor Thiago hitting the target, priced at 3/10 — an implied 77% against a 33% record, the clearest trap on the page.
- 33.30 clearances a game for Leeds against Brentford’s 26.10, with 45.3% possession — the lowest share of the ball of any home side this weekend.
- 3.05 big chances a game created by Brentford against 2.00 missed, and 1.77 expected goals for against 1.50 actually scored.
- 3.95 cards a game for Tony Harrington across 39 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, against a published career figure of 2.60 — and his Championship rate of 4.43 is higher still, which is the reverse of every other official in our card tips data.
- 7-8-5 for both sides across their last twenty — identical records, and the market cannot separate them either.
- 1.70 first half cards in Leeds matches against Brentford’s 1.15, the widest first-half card gap on the page.
Leeds vs Brentford Bet Builder Tips
J. Justin 3+ Tackles — 5 of His Last 6, 11/10
Six, three, two, six, four and three in his last six, at 3.11 per 90 across 1,736 minutes. Five of six clearing three is 83% and the price implies 48% — the widest gap between a record and a price anywhere on this page.
Sixty tackles is the highest total in either squad, and the floor is the part that matters: he has not gone below two in the run, and two of the six were sixes. That is a full-back playing every minute for a side that defends.
Leeds hold 45.3% of the ball, the lowest share of any home side this weekend, and clear it 33.30 times a game against Brentford’s 26.10. Our tackles and fouls prop bets page explains why the possession split matters more than the player’s average — and here both point the same way.
I. Thiago 3+ Fouls — 3 of His Last 6, 7/2
Nought, one, three, five, nought and three in his last six, at 2.07 per 90 across 1,784 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 22% — the second-widest gap on the page.
Forty-one fouls is the highest total in either squad and he is a centre-forward, which is the unusual part. Brentford press from the front and he leads it, so the fouls come from pressing rather than from defending set pieces.
The two blanks are the honest caution and both were full ninety-minute appearances, so this is a boom-or-bust sequence rather than a steady one. Tony Harrington books 3.95 a game across 39 Premier League matches, above what his career figure of 2.60 suggests, which helps a market settled by whether fouls are given.
D. Ouattara 2+ Fouls Drawn — 3 of His Last 6, 2/1
Two, one, one, two, two and one in his last six, at 1.33 per 90 across 1,281 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 33%.
He has been fouled in all six, so the floor is one rather than nought, and that consistency is worth more on this market than a higher average with zeros in it. Thirty-four shots across the sample says he carries the ball rather than waits for it.
Leeds commit 10.90 fouls a game to Brentford’s 10.35 — the higher figure, though not by much, and that is the weakness. Neither side fouls heavily, and a match between two low-foul teams is where this leg struggles.
Why Three Legs and Not Four
The fourth would have been worse than the three above it.
James Justin at four tackles is the biggest edge on the page — 50% against an implied 27% at 11/4 — but it shares a market group with his own three-tackle line and we do not take two legs from one player. Anton Stach at two tackles is 83% against 69%, but that is the same group again.
Everything else is priced accurately or against us. Yarmoliuk at three tackles implies 56% against a record of two in six. Aaronson at two fouls drawn implies 48% against 33%. Igor Thiago at one shot on target implies 77% against 33% — the clearest trap we have found this weekend. Our bet builder tips page sets out why three legs at genuine value beats four with one padded.
All three need the match to be contested. On a fixture the market splits 37-28-35, that is a reasonable thing to rely on.
Leeds vs Brentford Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Our model gives Leeds 37%, the draw 26% and Brentford 37%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 1.38 — the closest two numbers it has produced.
The market says 37.2%, 27.6% and 35.2%. Agreement inside two points on every outcome, and the third fixture this weekend where that has happened. All three were same-division fixtures needing no adjustment, which is now a clear pattern: every large disagreement this month has involved a correction of some kind.
Both sides have identical records across the twenty — seven wins, eight draws, five defeats. Brentford create more, with 3.05 big chances a game to Leeds’s 2.25 and 1.77 expected goals for, but they also miss 2.00 of them and scored 1.50. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Tackles and fouls prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Players to be booked this weekend
- Shots on target prop bets across the round
- Premier League betting tips all season
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.