Our Bournemouth vs Everton bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a fixture the market has moved on. Marcus Tavernier has hit the target in five of his last six and is 5/6. Evanilson is 2/7 on a record of four in six.
Money has come for Everton since the market opened.
Bournemouth vs Everton
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Prices are bet365, checked 29 August.
Bournemouth vs Everton Key Stats and Insights
- 5 of 6 for Marcus Tavernier hitting the target, at 5/6 — that is 83% against an implied 55%, the widest gap on the page.
- 0 of 6 for Evanilson clearing two shots on target, priced at 11/8 — an implied 42% against a record of none.
- 1.85 to 2.05 on Bournemouth since the market opened, with Everton shortening from 3.90 to 3.60. Money has come for the away side.
- 10 draws in 20 for Bournemouth, who lost just twice — the most drawn record on this weekend’s card.
- 7 goals conceded in 10 away matches for Bournemouth at 0.7 a game, against 1.4 at home. Their defensive record travels better than it stays.
- 19.15 tackles a game for Everton against Bournemouth’s 17.15, with 53.3% of duels won — the higher figure on both counts despite 44.2% possession.
- 4.46 cards a game for Chris Kavanagh across 74 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, against a published career figure of 3.51 — and 74 matches is the largest referee sample in our card tips data.
- 2.25 own cards a game for Bournemouth against Everton’s 1.75, and both sides average 3.48 cards a match against an official at 4.46.
Bournemouth vs Everton Bet Builder Tips
M. Tavernier 1+ Shot on Target — 5 of His Last 6, 5/6
1, 2, 0, 1, 1 and 1 in his last six, at 0.96 per 90 across 1,311 minutes. Five of six is 83% and the price implies 55% — the widest gap between a record and a price on this page.
Thirty-six shots and fourteen on target is now the largest attacking sample at Bournemouth. Eli Junior Kroupi took 36 shots himself and is out until October with a foot injury, and Amine Adli until September, which concentrates the volume rather than spreading it.
The single blank came at home to Manchester City across a full ninety minutes, so it is a genuine miss rather than a short appearance. The 1.5 line at 9/2 implies 18% against a record of one in six — he hits one and stops, which is exactly what a 0.5 line wants and our shots on target prop bets page is built around.
A. Truffert 3+ Tackles — 4 of His Last 6, 5/6
2, 4, 3, 3, 1 and 4 in his last six, at 2.90 per 90 across 1,800 minutes. Four of six clearing three is 67% against an implied 55%.
Fifty-eight tackles is the highest total in either squad and 1,800 minutes is a full season — there is no rotation buried in the sample and no short appearance flattering the average. That combination is rarer than it sounds.
Everton hold 44.2% of the ball and win 53.3% of their duels, the higher figure on both counts. A side that plays direct and fights for second balls gives a left-back constant work, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page explains why the opposition’s style matters more than the player’s average. The one in six is the floor and it came against Arsenal.
T. Barry 2+ Fouls — 3 of His Last 6, 13/8
2, 1, 0, 0, 2 and 3 in his last six, at 2.10 per 90 across 1,071 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 38%.
He starts, which is the part that makes this usable. Beto has the better scoring record — 8 goals in 830 minutes at 0.87 per 90, the best rate in either squad — and has been linked with a move, so Barry leads the line having scored a hat-trick against Preston in the cup.
The two blanks are the honest caution and both came in full appearances, so this is a boom-or-bust sequence rather than a steady one. Bournemouth commit 11.50 fouls a game to Everton’s 10.95, so the traffic runs both ways and a forward pressing from the front is where a striker’s foul count comes from.
Why Three Legs and Not Four
The fourth would have been worse than the three above it.
Iliman Ndiaye at two tackles is 83% against an implied 75%, but it shares a market group with Truffert. Dewsbury-Hall at three fouls drawn is 33% against 22%, which is real value, but adding it takes the price from around 8/1 to past 35/1 on a fixture the market cannot separate.
The alternatives are worse than that. Evanilson at two shots on target implies 42% against a record of none in six. Alex Scott at two tackles implies 73% against 50%. Marcus Tavernier at two fouls drawn implies 40% against 17%. Our bet builder tips page sets out why we would rather publish three at real value.
Tavernier and Barry need the match open; Truffert needs Everton on the ball. The three do not all fail together.
Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Bournemouth. Our model gives them 43%, the draw 24% and Everton 33%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.36.
The market says 46.4%, 27.2% and 26.4% — agreement within seven points, and the direction of the disagreement is worth noting. Our model likes Everton more than the price does, and so does the money: Bournemouth have drifted from 1.85 to 2.05 since the market opened while Everton shortened from 3.90 to 3.60.
Bournemouth drew ten of their twenty and lost twice, which is the most drawn record on this weekend’s card. Their defensive figures also travel oddly — seven conceded in ten away at 0.7 a game against fourteen in ten at home. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Shots on target prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Tackles and fouls prop bets this weekend
- Players to be booked across the round
- Premier League betting tips all season
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.