La Liga Predictions and Betting Tips from a Prediction Model vs Bookies Odds

Jude Bellingham has been fouled 3 or more times in 4 of his last 6 matches for Real Madrid. Our figure of 67% compares with the 48% implied by 11/10.

Real Madrid are 67% on the market and hold the ball, which is the shape a fouls-drawn line wants – a midfielder receiving under pressure rather than one chasing the game.

This is the widest gap on our first La Liga round.

Antony has been fouled twice or more in 4 of his last 6 for Real Betis. Our figure of 67% compares with the 52% implied by 10/11.

Real Betis are 15% on the market, so this is an attacking prop on a heavy underdog – the shape that has failed us most often. Fouls drawn is the exception we are deliberately tracking, because a winger running at a defence gets fouled whether his side is winning or not.

Both sides’ last 20 include European fixtures, so their team figures need discounting. A player’s own record does not.

Athletic Club take 6.20 corners a game and Atletico Madrid 4.95, for 11.15 between them against a line set at 9.5. Ten or more lands about 68% of the time on those figures against the 55% implied by 10/11.

Athletic Club’s 6.20 is the highest corner count of any side in this round.

The market is at 30% home, 29% draw and 41% away, so this is an even fixture where neither side is expected to sit deep and defend a lead.

Rayo Vallecano saw goals at both ends in 9 of their last 20 and Racing Santander in 15 of 20, for about 60% between them against the 62% implied by 8/13.

Racing Santander’s 15 of 20 comes from 17 LaLiga 2 matches and only 3 in this division, so their figure describes a level below this one. Rayo’s 9 of 20 is the more relevant number and it points the other way.

Level rather than value, and where the two figures come from is why we are not making more of it.

Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna saw goals at both ends in 15 of 20 each, for 75% between them against the 56% implied by 9/5.

Deportivo La Coruna played 17 of those 20 in LaLiga 2. A promoted side’s attacking and defensive figures both flatter them at this level, and a 19-point gap built on a division below this one is not one we will publish.

Villarreal are 63% on the market and have their own European fixtures in the mix. There is no selection here we can stand behind.

Valencia have seen 2.95 goals a game across their last 20 and Barcelona 2.95, for 2.95 between them. That puts fewer than three at about 43% against the 31% implied by 11/5.

Barcelona are 74% on the market, the shortest price of the round, and a heavy favourite winning 2-0 is the single likeliest way this finishes on our figures.

The caution is Barcelona’s own scoring – four of their 20 were Champions League fixtures, and their domestic rate is higher than the blended figure suggests.

Deportivo Alaves saw goals at both ends in 13 of their last 20 and Osasuna in 14 of 20, for about 68% between them against the 49% implied by 21/20.

Osasuna’s 20 are all La Liga fixtures, which is unusual in this round – most sides here have European or LaLiga 2 matches in the mix. Alaves have one cup tie and nothing else.

That makes this the cleanest data of the 10 fixtures, and the market is at 42% home, 31% draw and 27% away, so neither side is expected to control it.

The two sides have seen 2.83 goals a game between them, which puts three or more at about 54% against the 40% implied by 3/2.

The same clean data applies. Alaves and Osasuna have both scored in 13 and 14 of 20 respectively and neither keeps many clean sheets.

Aimar Oroz has been fouled 3 or more times in 4 of his last 6 for Osasuna. Our figure of 67% compares with the 50% an Evens price implies.

Osasuna are 27% on the market, so this is an attacking prop on the underdog. Fouls drawn is the market where we allow that, because a player being fouled does not need his side to be on top.

Malaga and Levante have seen 3.08 goals a game between them, which puts three or more at about 59% against the 52% implied by 10/11.

Malaga played 17 of their last 20 in LaLiga 2, so their attacking and defensive figures both need discounting at this level. That is what keeps this below our threshold rather than above it.

Levante’s 20 are all La Liga, and they are the more reliable half of the number.

Espanyol saw goals at both ends in 13 of their last 20 and Sevilla in 14 of 20, for about 68% between them against the 50% an Evens price implies.

Both sides’ 20 matches are all La Liga fixtures – no European ties, no cup runs, no second-division season behind them. That is true of only two fixtures in this round.

The market is at 41% home, 31% draw and 28% away, and neither side keeps clean sheets often enough to make the no side attractive.

The two sides have seen 2.83 goals a game between them, putting three or more at about 54% against the 42% implied by 11/8.

The same clean 20-match records apply, which is why we are willing to price this at all.

Edu Exposito has had two or more shots in 4 of his last 6 for Espanyol. Our figure of 67% compares with the 50% an Evens price implies.

Espanyol are the marginal favourites at 41% and he takes their set pieces, which is the case for the volume holding whichever way the match goes.

Ferran Jutgla has been fouled twice or more in 4 of his last 6 for Celta Vigo. Our figure of 67% compares with the 55% implied by 5/6.

Getafe commit fouls at a high rate and the fixture is close on the market at 40% home, 33% draw and 27% away.

Celta Vigo have four European fixtures in their last 20, so their team figures need discounting. His own record does not.

Getafe take 3.60 corners a game and Celta Vigo 3.20, for 6.80 between them against a line set at 8.5. That would put the under at about 75% against the 55% implied by 5/6.

A 20-point gap is our limit and this sits on it, which means the likelier explanation is a flaw in our figure rather than a mistake in the price.

Getafe’s 3.60 is the lowest corner count of any side in the round and Celta’s 3.20 is lower still. Both are unusual enough to be worth checking before backing.

Elche take 5.10 corners a game and Real Sociedad 5.25, for 10.35 between them against a line set at 9.5. Ten or more lands about 59% of the time on those figures against the 50% an Evens price implies.

Elche’s 20 matches are all La Liga and Real Sociedad have two cup ties, so this is among the cleaner data in the round.

The market has Real Sociedad as marginal favourites at 40% against 32%, which is the kind of even fixture where corners accumulate rather than one side shutting up shop.

Elche saw goals at both ends in 14 of their last 20 and Real Sociedad in 14 of 20, for about 70% between them against the 62% implied by 8/13.

Neither side keeps clean sheets often. The two records agree with each other, which is not true of most fixtures in this round.