Bundesliga Predictions and Betting Tips from a Prediction Model vs Bookies Odds

Andrej Ilic has had 3 or more shots in 4 of his last 6 for Union Berlin. Our figure of 67% compares with the 50% an Evens price implies.

Union Berlin are 15% on the market, so this is an attacking prop on a heavy underdog – the shape that has failed us most often. A striker’s shot count depends less on his side controlling the match than a midfielder’s does, which is the case for it here.

Bayer Leverkusen have 4 Champions League fixtures in their last 20, so their team figures need discounting. His own record does not.

Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin have both seen goals at both ends in 13 of their last 20, for about 65% between them.

Leverkusen are 65% on the market and score freely at home. Union Berlin have scored in 13 of their last 20 and 1-1 is the single likeliest scoreline on our figures at 10%.

Jens Castrop has had two or more shots in 4 of his last 6 for Borussia Monchengladbach. Our figure of 67% compares with the 56% implied by 4/5.

Monchengladbach are 51% on the market at home against a promoted side, which is the shape a shots line wants – a midfielder in a team expected to have the ball.

Elversberg played 18 of their last 20 in the 2. Bundesliga, so nothing in their team figures describes this level. That is why there is no card or goals selection on this fixture.

Stefano Marino has had 3 or more shots in 4 of his last 6 for Paderborn. Our figure of 67% compares with the 50% an Evens price implies.

The fixture is priced at 26% home, 26% draw and 49% away, so Paderborn will spend much of it defending. A shot count of three from a side in that position points at a player getting the ball in transition rather than one working an opening.

Paderborn played 16 of their last 20 in the 2. Bundesliga and Freiburg have 6 European fixtures in theirs, so neither side’s team figures describe this match. Both are reasons there is nothing here beyond the player line.

Hoffenheim saw goals at both ends in 11 of their last 20 and Borussia Dortmund in 10 of 20, for about 52% between them – which puts the no side at 48% against the 36% implied by 7/4.

This is the only fixture in the round where both sides sit below 55% on that market, and Dortmund have kept 8 clean sheets in 20.

Dortmund have 3 Champions League fixtures in their last 20 and Hoffenheim’s are all domestic, so the two records are not measuring quite the same thing. That is the caution rather than the case against.

Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig both have clean 20-match records – 19 and 18 Bundesliga fixtures respectively, with nothing from another division or competition to discount.

That should make this one of the more reliable fixtures to price, and it produced nothing. Not one player line and not one team market showed a gap of 8 points or more against the price.

The market has RB Leipzig at 54%, the draw at 22% and Werder Bremen at 24%. Our own figures agree closely enough that there is nothing to say.

Schalke and Bayern Munich take 11.40 corners a game between them against a line set at 9.5. Ten or more lands about 70% of the time on those figures against the 52% implied by 10/11.

Bayern are 83% on the market, the shortest price in this round, and a side that dominant wins corners whatever else happens. Schalke defending deep for 90 minutes concedes them.

This is the selection on a lopsided fixture that does not depend on our model reading the result, which is why it is here and a match-result view is not.

Michael Olise has been fouled 3 or more times in 4 of his last 6 for Bayern Munich. Our figure of 67% compares with the 55% implied by 5/6.

Bayern hold the ball and Schalke will foul to stop them – Olise carrying it at a deep defence is the shape this market wants.

Schalke played 18 of their last 20 in the 2. Bundesliga, so their fouling rate at this level is unknown. That is a caution rather than an argument against, since it is Bayern’s possession doing the work.

Moussa Ndiaye has been fouled twice or more in 3 of his last 6 for Schalke. Our figure of 50% compares with the 38% implied by 13/8.

Schalke are 6% on the market. Fouls drawn is the one attacking market we will publish on a side priced that short, because a player being fouled does not need his team on top – though a side with 20% of the ball has fewer chances to be fouled at all.

Hamburg have 19 Bundesliga fixtures in their last 20 and Mainz 15, with 4 European ties making up the rest. Neither needs a large adjustment.

No player line and no team market showed a gap of 8 points or more against the price. Tobias Reichel books 3.68 yellows a game, the lowest rate among the 8 referees appointed this round, which takes the card markets out as well.

The market has Hamburg at 41%, the draw at 27% and Mainz at 32%.

Michael Gregoritsch has had 3 or more shots in 4 of his last 6 for Augsburg. Our figure of 67% compares with the 50% an Evens price implies.

Augsburg are 27% on the market, so this is an attacking prop on the underdog. A centre-forward’s shot count survives that better than a winger’s, because the chances come to him rather than being created by territory.

Both sides’ records are among the cleanest in this round – Frankfurt have 2 European fixtures and Augsburg 19 of 20 domestic.

Can Uzun has had 3 or more shots in 4 of his last 6 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Our figure of 67% compares with the 56% implied by 4/5.

Frankfurt are 49% and at home, which is the right side of the role rule for a shots line.

His 4+ line at 2/1 is also available and we are not taking it – 3 of 6 is 50% against an implied 33%, and 33% sits below the 40% floor we require.