Millwall vs Newcastle Predictions, Stats and Odds

Newcastle are 4/7 and this is the televised tie of the round.

Every priced player is listed below with his record from the last 20 matches, because the XI is not knowable until an hour before kick-off.

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Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree

Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.

Three tips: over 10.5 corners at 5/6, both teams to score at 3/4 and over 2.5 goals at 2/3. No card selection, and the referee is why – Craig Pawson’s last three seasons read 4.68, 4.58 and 2.90.

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Millwall vs Newcastle United Prediction

We are predicting 1-2 to Newcastle. Millwall saw goals at both ends in 8 of their last 20, the lowest rate of the round; Newcastle in 16 of 20, the highest. The two records disagree sharply, which is why our figure sits close to the price.

Cup ties break what this model reads. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a competition where both managers rest their regulars, those matches were played by different teams. The tips above are all team markets for that reason – corners, cards and goals depend on how two sides play rather than on which 11 players start.

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• Carabao Cup tips for every tie in this round
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