Millwall vs Newcastle United
Millwall
- W4-0Bolton Wanderers05 Sep
- L0-3Wrexham02 Sep
- L1-5at Southampton29 Aug
- W3-0Norwich City22 Aug
- W2-0at Bristol City15 Aug
- L0-2Hull City11 May
Newcastle United
- D2-2Bournemouth05 Sep
- W2-0at Tottenham Hotspur29 Aug
- D2-2Liverpool23 Aug
- L0-2at Fulham24 May
- W3-1West Ham United17 May
- D1-1at Nottingham Forest10 May
Newcastle are 4/7 and this is the televised tie of the round.
Every priced player is listed below with his record from the last 20 matches, because the XI is not knowable until an hour before kick-off.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Taylor 2+ Shots | 9/4 | 50% | 31% | +19 | Tipped |
| J. Cooper 1+ Foul Drawn | 91/100 | 67% | 52% | +15 | Tipped |
| C. Neghli 2+ Shots | 4/5 | 67% | 56% | +11 | Tipped |
| Both Teams to Score | 3/4 | 60% | 57% | +3 | Tipped |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 5/6 | 57% | 55% | +2 | Tipped |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2/3 | 58% | 60% | -2 | Tipped |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
Three tips: over 10.5 corners at 5/6, both teams to score at 3/4 and over 2.5 goals at 2/3. No card selection, and the referee is why – Craig Pawson’s last three seasons read 4.68, 4.58 and 2.90.
Millwall vs Newcastle United Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Newcastle. Millwall saw goals at both ends in 8 of their last 20, the lowest rate of the round; Newcastle in 16 of 20, the highest. The two records disagree sharply, which is why our figure sits close to the price.
Cup ties break what this model reads. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a competition where both managers rest their regulars, those matches were played by different teams. The tips above are all team markets for that reason – corners, cards and goals depend on how two sides play rather than on which 11 players start.
- Carabao Cup tips for every tie in this round
- Value bets across every competition we cover
Tomorrow
17:45Club Brugge vs Aston VillaChampions League6 tips19:45Bournemouth vs Lincoln CityCarabao Cup5 tips19:45Crystal Palace vs MiddlesbroughCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Leyton Orient vs Bradford CityCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Millwall vs Newcastle UnitedCarabao Cup6 tips19:45Sunderland vs Hull CityCarabao Cup4 tips20:00Porto vs Man CityChampions LeagueStats18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.