Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid betting tips and predictions using our stats model, factoring in recent form, player props, and the latest betting odds to pick the best bets.
Four tips, and the corners line is the one we are most confident in. Our bet builder tips page carries the rest of this round. Liverpool and Atletico Madrid take 11.00 corners a game between them against a line set at 9.5, and the market has it at 44% once the margin comes out.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid
Liverpool
- W2-0at Ipswich Town04 Sep
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 Aug
- D2-2at Newcastle United23 Aug
- D1-1Brentford24 May
- L2-4at Aston Villa15 May
- D1-1Chelsea09 May
Atlético Madrid
- L0-3at Athletic Club05 Sep
- W3-1at Sevilla29 Aug
- D2-2Villarreal23 Aug
- W2-0Málaga19 Aug
- L1-5at Villarreal24 May
- W1-0Girona FC17 May
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Betting Tips
Over 9.5 Corners — 11/10. Liverpool take 6.15 a game and Atletico 4.85. About 66% on our figures against a fair 44%, the widest gap of the round.
Over 3.5 Cards — 8/11. The two sides average 3.90 between them and Davide Massa books 4.76 a game, which blends the fixture to 4.33. About 63% against a fair 54%.
D. Szoboszlai 3+ Shots — Evens. Three or more in 4 of his last 6, and he has started all 3 of Liverpool’s matches this season.
J. Frimpong 2+ Fouls Drawn — 3/2. Fouled twice or more in 3 of his last 6, and Liverpool are 56.1% on the market, which is the right side for an attacking prop.
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Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 Corners | 11/10 | 66% | 48% | +18 | Tipped |
| D. Szoboszlai 3+ Shots | Evens | 67% | 50% | +17 | Tipped |
| J. Frimpong 2+ Fouls Drawn | 3/2 | 50% | 40% | +10 | Tipped |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 8/11 | 63% | 58% | +5 | Tipped |
| Liverpool to Win | 13/10 | 48% | 43% | +5 | Tipped |
| A. Baena 2+ Shots | Evens | 67% | 50% | +17 | — |
| G. Simeone 2+ Shots | 2/1 | 50% | 33% | +17 | — |
| Both Teams to Score | 4/5 | 63% | 56% | +7 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
The Edge column compares against the raw price. A tip has to beat the fair price once the bookmaker’s cut is removed, which is why a selection can show a small edge here and still be one we are backing.
Potential Bet Builder Legs
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Wirtz 1+ Shots | 1/7 | 100% | 88% | +13 |
| J. Cardoso 1+ Fouls Drawn | 4/11 | 83% | 73% | +10 |
| D. Szoboszlai 2+ Shots | 4/11 | 83% | 73% | +10 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are not tips. Every row is priced too short to back on its own — at 1/4 or 2/5 you are risking a lot to win a little, and a 100% record across six matches is not a guarantee of a seventh. They are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. None of them is in our record, because we are not recommending them.
What We Are Leaving Out
Giuliano Simeone 2+ shots at 2/1 and Alex Baena 2+ shots at Evens. Both clear our figure comfortably – 50% and 67% against implied 33% and 50%. Neither is a tip because Atletico Madrid are 20.1% on the market, and every attacking prop we published on a side priced below 25% lost last month. The records are real; the fixture is wrong for them.
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Liverpool. The market makes it 56.1% Liverpool, 23.8% the draw and 20.1% Atletico.
Liverpool have drawn four of their last six and score 2.11 goals a game at Anfield against 1.11 conceded. Atletico concede 2.00 a game away from home, the worst away defensive record of any side in this round, and have won 3 of their last 6.
We do not publish a match result view on this fixture. Our model reads corners, cards and shots well and results badly, and across this Champions League round it sits an average of 11 points from the market even after adjusting for league strength.
Federico Chiesa, Joe Gomez, Hugo Ekitike and Conor Bradley are all out for Liverpool, which thins the attacking options rather than the spine.
More Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Tips and Predictions
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.