Coventry vs Brighton betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
Six selections, and four of them are fouls markets. Coventry commit 11.45 fouls a game and Brighton 10.90, and the two sides come from different divisions – which is where our figures are least reliable and the fouls markets least affected by it.
Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion Team Stats
Coventry City
- L0-1at Manchester City05 Sep
- L0-1Hull City29 Aug
- L0-3at Arsenal21 Aug
- W4-0at Watford02 May
- W3-1Wrexham26 Apr
- W5-1Portsmouth21 Apr
Brighton & Hove Albion
- D1-1Leeds United05 Sep
- L3-4at Chelsea30 Aug
- W4-0Tromsø IL27 Aug
- W4-0Aston Villa23 Aug
- D0-0at Tromsø IL20 Aug
- L0-3Manchester United24 May
Coventry vs Brighton Betting Tips
No Both Teams to Score — 11/10. Coventry saw goals at both ends in 8 of their last 20 and Brighton in 8 of 20, which gives about 60% for one side or neither scoring against a fair 44%.
F. Onyeka 3+ Fouls Drawn — 2/1. Frank Onyeka has been fouled three times or more in 5 of his last 10 for Coventry, at 2.22 per 90 across 1,177 minutes.
J. Rudoni 1+ Shot on Target — 5/4. Jack Rudoni has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Coventry, at 0.94 per 90 across 866 minutes.
D. Gomez 3+ Shots — 5/6. Diego Gomez has had three or more shots in 7 of his last 10 for Brighton, at 2.43 per 90 across 1,109 minutes, starting all 5 this season.
L. Vuskovic 1+ Foul Drawn — 6/5. Luka Vuskovic has been fouled in 3 of his last 5 for Brighton, at 1.20 per 90 across 450 minutes, starting all 5 this season.
O. Boscagli 2+ Fouls Drawn — 13/8. Olivier Boscagli has been fouled twice or more in 5 of his last 10 for Brighton, at 1.33 per 90 across 1,018 minutes, starting all 5 this season.
Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Onyeka 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2/1 | 50% | 33% | +17 |
| J. Rudoni 1+ Shot on Target | 5/4 | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| D. Gomez 3+ Shots | 5/6 | 70% | 55% | +15 |
| L. Vuskovic 1+ Foul Drawn | 6/5 | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| No Both Teams to Score | 11/10 | 60% | 48% | +12 |
| O. Boscagli 2+ Fouls Drawn | 13/8 | 50% | 38% | +12 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.
The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.
What We Are Leaving Out
Every card market. The two sides average 3.68 cards between them and Tony Harrington books 4.09 across his eleven Championship matches in the last three seasons, which blends to 3.89. Four or more lands about 54% against a fair 52% – the market has it, and eleven matches is a thin record to argue against a price on.
Player Props Bet Finder
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Every player bet365 have priced for this match, with each player’s record over his last ten alongside the price. No tips, no selections – the numbers and the odds side by side.
Coventry vs Brighton Prediction
We are predicting 0-2 to Brighton. The market makes it 25% Coventry, 25% the draw and 50% Brighton.
Brighton have won 3 of their last 6 and kept 7 clean sheets in 20. Coventry came up last season, and their figures come largely from the Championship.
Our model has this at 50% Coventry, twenty-five points above the market – our figures failing on the division gap rather than an edge. The scoreline follows the price and the clean-sheet records, which is also where our no-both-teams-to-score tip points.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.