A certain advantage is always assumed for the team playing in its own yard, but in the Premier League, how big is this advantage, and how much is already built into the prices? Here’s an overview of the way the home and away form can influence the evaluation of a match, and therefore the bet on the Premier League.
What Is the Premier League Home Advantage?
Home advantage in football is the benefit a team gains by playing at its home stadium. Knowing the dimensions and conditions of the field, being in the usual routine, and having tens of thousands of fans in your corner can make the difference, especially in tight games.
Why Home Advantage Can Vary Between Teams
Every team in the Premier League has to play half of its games at home. But they don’t all have the same facilities, and not all of them can take full advantage of them.
One of the most noticeable differences is the stadiums. The Premier League mixes large, modern stadiums with historic, smaller ones where the proximity of the stands to the pitch creates a particularly dense climate.
The size of the stadium alone is no guarantee of advantage; the attendance, the acoustics, and the closeness between fans and teams are all important too.
An important consideration in the Premier League is that of physical preparation. The clubs have recuperation and re-education regimes in place to cope with the strain of league games, cup competitions and, for some of them, European competitions.
That minimizes some of the disadvantages of travelling, although it can still interfere with routine.
There are also differences in tactics. Some coaches, playing at home, are looking for attacking solutions, are pressing from the first ball and are hoping for the support of the stands to keep the pace going.
In the end, the quality of the squad and the strength of the adversary are decisive. A club that plays well at home is helped not only by its skill on the field, but also by the emotional atmosphere of the ground, and that is something the Premiership odds to win don’t tell.
Home Form vs Away Form: What Should You Look At?
The Premier League can be deceptive if you don’t know how to read it. A team can be placed in a very high position by an excellent series of home games, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it can keep the same level on the road.
A lot also depends on the calendar. A club can play several home matches against easy teams, occupying a good place in the table, but when it begins a series of away matches, especially against stronger clubs, it can quickly lose part of its advantage.
The following table gives an illustration of how a similar team may make very different results, according to where it plays.
| Metric | Home Form | Away Form |
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 22 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 17 |
| Points per game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 |
In this case, this club had a total of 35 points from 20 matches, which would give it a position in the first ranks in the league table. But of those 35 points, 23 were won at home, while 12 were won away.
This difference is also evident in its goals scored and goals conceded. It scores fewer goals away, concedes more, and keeps fewer clean sheets.
In analyzing home vs away betting in the Premier League, this information is more valuable than the standing in the table.
Look Beyond Wins and Losses
Winning is important, but not every victory is a reflection of a Premier League team’s true level. Two Premier League teams may win the same number of home matches, and at the same time be at very different levels.
A team which scores the odd goal, but not more, is an example of good defence, but perhaps not much attack. Then a 3-0, 4-1 scorer indicates attacking power, but one which it may not be able to maintain.
So it is worthwhile taking a look at the goals scored and conceded, the goal difference and the clean sheets, which are indicators of strength and weakness, which the mere number of wins does not show.
Finally, the points per match also make it possible to compare teams that have played different numbers of games.
How Home and Away Form Can Influence Betting Odds
It is known that playing at home is an advantage, and it is taken into account when setting the odds on a game in the Premier League. That is why two teams with equal ability will not always have the same odds to win a Premier League game depending on where they are.
Home ground is only one of the criteria used for setting odds. The quality of the opponent, injuries, the likely starting line-up, and the calendar are all influential in shaping the odds.
Don’t Assume Home Advantage Automatically Means Value
One of the most common mistakes in home-and-away betting in the Premier League is confusing a higher probability of winning with a good betting opportunity.
It’s perfectly reasonable to believe the team is the favourite, but it doesn’t mean it will have a good price, since the Premier League betting odds may already reflect this strength. However, a team that has won eight of its last ten home matches and is playing a weak away team can play differently, even at home.
Also, the state of the season must be taken into consideration. A team struggling to avoid relegation can be in a very different position at the start of a game than one with the division more or less guaranteed. The rota and the coach’s decisions change the conditions of the game considerably.
Hence it is necessary to form a judgement not only by the local factor, but by the fullest knowledge of the surroundings of the match.
When you are looking at the current Premier League betting at BetUS, it is useful to compare the odds on offer with the recent form of both teams, the situation on the field, and the available information on the starting eleven.
We must also ask whether the recent results really reflect the level of the team.
How to Use Home and Away Form When Analysing a Match
Before analyzing a game in the Premier League, it’s worth taking a look at a few indicators that will give us a feel for how both sides are really getting on.
- Check recent home form: Look at the home team’s last five or ten matches in its own stadium. Look for trends, not just isolated wins.
- Check recent away form: Analyze the team’s Premier League away form. Some teams lose attacking effectiveness or show bigger defensive weaknesses.
- Compare goals scored and conceded: Goals scored and conceded help identify strengths, weaknesses, and possible differences between the two teams.
- Consider the strength of recent opponents: A good run against teams in the lower half of the table doesn’t necessarily reflect the same level as getting positive results against the favorites.
- Check injuries, suspensions, and squad changes: The absence of important players, rotations, and fixture congestion can change expected performance considerably.
- Compare statistics with available odds: Check whether the odds reasonably reflect the current strengths, weaknesses, and circumstances of both teams. Remember that bookmakers already factor in many of these variables.
- Avoid relying on a single statistic: A home record, a scoring streak, or a league position can each mislead when taken alone, so weigh them together.
Does Premier League Home Advantage Still Matter?
These old stadiums like Anfield and Old Trafford are indeed fortresses, especially when their thousands of fans support the home team. They are then intimidating for any visitor, even the fiercest in the Premier League.
Neither Liverpool nor Manchester United are unbeatable at home. In the history of the tournament, the effect of home advantage has been very uneven from one season to the next, and the fortunes of some teams depend much more on home successes than others.
Interestingly, although there is a definite home-field advantage, in recent times the margin between the hosts and the away teams has been smaller than in the past.
Hence, in the Premier League home advantage is always important but should never be regarded as a guarantee. Form, injuries, the calendar, the condition of the opposition, tactical considerations- all these can be as influential as the support of the stands, if not more so.
FAQs
What is home advantage in the Premier League?
Home advantage is a statistical tendency, a tendency that is not the same for every club, nor season to season.
Does home advantage affect the odds on a Premier League match?
Yes. Bookmakers take home advantage into account when calculating probabilities and setting odds, so it’s already built into them.
Which is best for punters – to study home form or away form?
In the majority of cases, the best comparison is between the home team’s recent form at home and the visiting team’s recent performance away from home, while also taking into account the opposition and other factors.
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.