Every selection on this page carries two numbers: our probability and the market’s. That comparison is the method, and it is the reason to read us rather than anyone else.
A betting price is a probability in disguise. A shot at 10/11 is the bookmaker saying 52%; a foul drawn at 2/1 is the bookmaker saying 33%. We work the same number out independently from the player’s own record, and publish both.
What Makes the Europa League Different
The competition spans thirty-odd leagues, and that is the whole problem. A record built in the Armenian Premier League and one built in the Bundesliga are not the same currency, and a model that treats them as such will read a domestic goalscorer as a European one.
Our pull reports the competition mix behind every side’s last twenty matches. On this round it ranged from Bournemouth at 100% Premier League to Levski Sofia at 60% Bulgarian football — and where the two sides in a tie sit far apart on that measure, we exclude the weaker side’s players rather than pretend to price them.
That costs selections and it should. Five of Wednesday’s nine ties and four of Thursday’s lost their weaker side entirely. What is left is the fixtures where both records describe football at a level our figures understand.
This Round’s Europa League Best Bets
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Best Bets, Bet Builders And The Props Tool Are For Members
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- Five Best Bets on every preview
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