Five both-teams-to-score legs, every one picked by our stats model, and every one where our probability is higher than the market’s.
Both teams to score is the market our model reads best. It does not need to know which side is better, only how often each of them scores and how often each of them concedes — and those are two things a count of 20 matches measures directly.
A price is a probability in disguise. 1/2 is the bookmaker saying 67%. 4/5 is 55%. We work out the same number from how often each side has actually seen goals at both ends, and where our figure sits above theirs the leg goes in. Where it sits below, it stays out however inviting the fixture looks.
Every leg below carries both numbers. The gaps run from 4 to 10 points.
Both Teams to Score Accumulator
- 1Both Teams to ScoreNewcastle vs BournemouthGoals at both ends in 16 of Newcastle’s last 20 and 14 of Bournemouth’s — our 75% against a market 67%1/2
- 2Both Teams to ScoreLuton Town vs Leyton Orient14 of 20 for both sides, on clean League One data — our 70% against a market 62%8/13
- 3Both Teams to ScorePortsmouth vs Cardiff City14 of Portsmouth’s last 20 and 13 of Cardiff’s — our 68% against a market 64%4/7
- 4Both Teams to ScoreStoke City vs Charlton Athletic13 of Stoke’s last 20 and 13 of Charlton’s — our 65% against a market 55%4/5
- 5Both Teams to ScoreBurnley vs Bristol CityBurnley have conceded 2.15 a game across their last 6 — our 62% against a market 56%4/5
Every leg is drawn from our prediction model and explained in full on the match page. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
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Why These Five
Newcastle vs Bournemouth — the strongest on either card
16 of Newcastle’s last 20 matches saw goals at both ends. That is 80%, the highest rate anywhere in our Premier League data, and Bournemouth are at 14 of 20.
Newcastle have kept two clean sheets all season. Bournemouth have scored in 8 of their last 10. At 1/2 the market is saying 67% and our figure is 75%.
This is already a best bet on our Newcastle vs Bournemouth page, and it is the leg we would keep if we were cutting this accumulator to one.
Stoke vs Charlton — the widest gap of the five
Our 65% against a market 55% is the biggest disagreement here, and it comes from an unusual place.
Charlton hold 40.2% of the ball, the lowest share in the Championship, which normally argues against a side scoring. They have found a goal in 13 of their last 20 regardless — they score on the break rather than through possession, and the market appears to be pricing the possession figure rather than the goals.
Stoke have seen goals at both ends in 13 of 20 themselves.
Luton vs Leyton Orient — the best League One fixture for this market
14 of 20 for both sides, giving 70% against a market implying 62%.
Both squads have 20 clean League One matches behind those figures, which is not true of every fixture in that division this weekend — several involve a side with Championship or League Two matches in their last 20, where the numbers describe a different level.
Luton score 1.90 goals a game and Leyton Orient have scored in 14 of their 20.
Portsmouth vs Cardiff — the narrowest gap, and the most reliable
68% against 64% is the smallest edge in this accumulator, and the fixture behind it is the least surprising. Portsmouth concede 1.65 goals a game at Fratton Park and kept 3 clean sheets in 20. Cardiff have Ollie Tanner at 3.23 shots per 90, the highest rate of any player in the Championship this weekend.
A narrow gap on a fixture that behaves predictably is worth more in an accumulator than a wide gap on one that does not.
Burnley vs Bristol City — the leg carried by one defence
Burnley have conceded 2.15 goals a game across their last 6, which is what puts this at 62% against a market 56%.
Bristol City take 2.05 cards a game and Scott Twine has had 2 or more shots in 3 of his last 6. This is the leg we would drop first — 62% is the lowest of the five and it rests more on Burnley’s recent defending than on a long record.
The Arithmetic
Five legs come to just over 11/1, and the block above carries the exact figure. A £10 stake returns about £123.
| Our model | The market | |
|---|---|---|
| All five landing | 14.4% | 8.2% |
Our model makes this accumulator nearly twice as likely to land as the price does. That is a large claim and it depends on five separate estimates all being right at once, which is why we publish the legs as singles too.
An accumulator multiplies the bookmaker’s margin as well as the returns. These markets carry around 5% in the bookmaker’s favour each, compounding to roughly 23% across five legs. Five singles cost far less in margin and win far more often — the accumulator is the version you take because the return is bigger, not because it is the better bet.
Why This Market Suits the Model
Both teams to score does not require knowing who is better. Most of what a football model gets wrong is squad quality — it counts results and cannot see that one bench is worth more than another team’s first XI. That is why our match-result figures sit well below the market on lopsided fixtures and why we do not publish them as tips.
Goals at both ends sidesteps that entirely. It asks two simple questions of each side: how often do you score, and how often do you concede. Both are directly measurable from 20 matches, and neither depends on judging which team is stronger.
Where a side has changed division we weight by level. A promoted team’s last 20 include matches against weaker opposition, so their attacking figures flatter them. That is why several League One fixtures with promising numbers are not in this accumulator — the numbers describe the division they came from.
More Predictions
- Accumulator tips from our stats model
- Saturday accumulator of teams to win
- Championship best bets for every round
- Both teams to score tips fixture by fixture
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.