Premier League Tips from our A.I Predictions Model and the Betting Edge

Our free Premier League tips cover every gameweek – best bets, bet builders, accumulators and pundit predictions for all the big fixtures, each backed by the stats. Every selection on this page carries two numbers: our probability and the market’s. That comparison is the whole method, and it is the only reason to read us rather than anyone else.

Every betting price is a probability in disguise. A shot at 10/11 is the bookmaker saying 52%; a card at 3/1 is the bookmaker saying 25%. We work out the same number independently and publish both, so you can see exactly where we disagree with the market and by how much.

Our figure comes from the player’s own record rather than from opinion. For a shots or fouls line we count how often he has cleared it in his last 6 matches and check the rate per 90 minutes behind it. For a team market we use both sides’ last 20. Where a rate comes off a small sample we pull it towards a positional baseline before quoting it, because 4 goals in 266 minutes is a hot streak rather than a rate.

A selection needs three things to appear here. A 40% chance or better on our figure, a price of 4/6 or longer, and a gap to the market of no more than 20 points — because when our number sits far above the bookmaker’s, the likelier explanation is that ours is wrong.

Premier League Betting Tips from the Prediction Model

Eighteen of our 29 selections sit between 8 and 20 points clear of the price. The rest are on the individual match pages, where the full argument for each one sits alongside the numbers.

A market percentage always includes the bookmaker’s cut, which on these markets runs around 5%. That is why the table starts at 8 rather than at 1: below that, our number and the price are broadly saying the same thing.

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Where the Round’s Selections Come From

Fouls drawn is the market we are backing hardest, with 9 of the 25 selections. It is also the one we understand least — the record we are building will tell us whether a player’s rate of being fouled holds up against a specific opponent, and we would rather find that out on a tracked sample than assume it.

Corners produced 5 selections and they split both ways. Manchester City vs Coventry is over 10.5 at 12.75 between the sides; Fulham vs Crystal Palace and Brighton vs Leeds are unders, where the two sides produce fewer corners than the line asks for. A corners line is one of the few markets where the fixture’s shape matters more than either side’s quality.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth both teams to score is our strongest team market at 75% against an implied 67%. Newcastle have seen goals at both ends in 16 of their last 20, the highest rate in our data, and have kept 2 clean sheets all season.

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What We Are Leaving Out, and Why

Four selections we published exceed our own 20-point cap and the table filters them out. Sadiki 2+ fouls drawn at +34, Smith Rowe 1+ foul drawn at +25, Ipswich vs Liverpool over 9.5 corners at +24, and Evanilson 2+ fouls drawn at +23.

All four are published on their match pages and all four are in our tracked record. They are absent here because a gap that size is a warning rather than a recommendation — when our number sits 30 points above the bookmaker’s, the likelier explanation is a flaw in ours.

That cap came from our own settled results. Across the bets we settled on 1 and 2 September, gaps above 30 returned nothing from 3 attempts and gaps of 20 to 29 returned one from 5. Gaps under 10 lost least. The cap is the rule those numbers produced, and it arrived after these four had already gone out.

Every attacking prop on a heavy underdog. João Pedro has the best record of any player this weekend — 58 shots, 36 fouls drawn and 11 goals in 1,396 minutes — and Chelsea are 18% at Arsenal. Brenden Aaronson has been fouled 30 times in 1,431 minutes and Leeds are 22% at Brighton. Both are named on their match pages as warnings rather than tips.

Latest Premier League Previews

Our newest Premier League match previews and bet builders, updated as they publish.

Odds subject to change. 18+. GambleAware.org.

Premier League Pundit Predictions

As well as our own stats-based tips, we track the weekly Premier League predictions from the game’s best-known pundits — and pit them against each other. See who’s calling the scores each gameweek:

• Chris Sutton predictions — the BBC pundit’s score predictions for every Premier League game.
• Paul Merson predictions — Merson’s weekend calls and Soccer Saturday selections.
• Mark Lawrenson predictions — Lawro’s long-running gameweek score predictions.
• AI Predictions — how ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Copilot predict the gameweek, with our running AI prediction league.

How We Pick Our Premier League Tips

Every tip we post is built from the numbers — form, expected goals, shots, cards and confirmed team news — weighted for each fixture rather than reputation. We treat every side on its current data, and only tip a selection we’d back on its own. The full reasoning behind each call is in the match previews linked throughout this page.

Premier League Bet Builder Tips

Our stats-based bet builders are among our most popular Premier League content — several selections from one match combined into a single bet, built from the player numbers for cards, shots and shots on target. See our bet builder tips hub for how we construct every selection from the stats.

Premier League Accumulator Tips

The Premier League is the centrepiece of most weekend accumulators. We pick out the best-value selections across the gameweek for our football accumulator tips, including Premier-League-only accas across the Saturday and Sunday fixtures.

Where to Bet on the Premier League

Choosing the right bookmaker matters for Premier League betting — the best offer strong bet builder prices, competitive odds and useful concessions on the biggest games. See our guide to the best Premier League betting sites for the top accounts, and new customers can claim free bets to put towards our tips.

18+. New customers only. Further terms apply to each offer. GambleAware.org.

When Are Premier League Tips Posted?

We post our Premier League tips ahead of every gameweek — the Saturday and Sunday fixtures during the week, and midweek rounds as they come. Our most detailed coverage is on the biggest games and the full weekend card, with previews usually up a day or two before kick-off, so check back through the week for the latest tips and pundit predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

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More Premier League and football betting: Chris Sutton predictions · Paul Merson predictions · AI predictions · Bet builder tips · Football accumulator tips · Best Premier League betting sites

Odds and tips were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tips are the opinion of the author and are not guaranteed. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. GambleAware.org · GamCare.org.uk.