Last Updated on 02/03/2026 by Andy Clark
St Patrick’s Thursday is the third day of the Cheltenham Festival and takes place on Thursday 12th March 2026, see all the key trends to help with your betting across every race below.
The day features seven races, including four Grade 1s, headlined by the Ryanair Chase and the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle. It is traditionally the most Irish-flavoured day of the week, with St Patrick’s Day just around the corner and the Irish contingent in full voice. Below are the key historical trends for every race on Day 3 to help you build your shortlists.
Read More: Cheltenham Day 1 Trends | Cheltenham Day 2 Trends | Cheltenham Day 4 Trends
Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Dawn Run) – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Air of Entitlement – Henry de Bromhead / Rachael Blackmore
Age: Every single winner of the last 10 renewals (10/10) was aged 5 or 6. This is an absolute age trend with no exceptions — mares aged 7 or older do not win this race.
Price: Only 3 of the last 10 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and 6 of the last 10 came from the top 3 in the betting. This is one of the more open Grade races of the week — the market leader is beaten more often than not.
Last Run: 7 of the last 10 winners won their most recent race, and 8 of the last 10 ran within the last 47 days. Recent fitness matters here.
Key Trials: Three prep races have each produced 2 of the last 10 winners. The Jane Seymour Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown (2 ran, both won), the Solerina Mares Hurdle at Fairyhouse (2 ran, both won), and the Mares Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown (2 ran, both placed without winning). All three are routes worth tracking in the weeks before the Festival.
Previous Course Form: Course experience is not required here at all. Only 2 of the last 10 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and not one had a previous win at the course. A Festival debutant can absolutely win this race.
Previous Distance Form: 7 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs, and 9 of the last 10 had at least 1 win over the trip. Proven form at two miles is close to essential.
Previous Hurdle Form: 9 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 previous hurdle runs, 6 of the last 10 had at least 3 hurdle runs, 9 of the last 10 had at least 1 hurdle win, and 7 of the last 10 had at least 2 wins over hurdles. Very lightly raced mares are against the trends.
Rating: 7 of the last 10 winners were rated 135 or higher — though 2 of the last 10 did not yet hold an official rating when they won, making this a softer filter than in most other Festival races.
Graded Form: Only 5 of the last 10 winners had a previous graded win — the lowest graded form requirement of any Grade race at the entire Festival. An unproven novice can take this prize.
Season Form: 9 of the last 10 winners had run at least twice that season, and 9 of the last 10 had at least 1 win. A mare with just 1 run and 1 win this season is against the trends.
❌Horse to Avoid: Mares aged 7 or older — the record is 0 from 10 with no exceptions. Also be wary of mares who have not yet won over hurdles, as 9 of the last 10 winners had at least 1 hurdle victory before arriving at Cheltenham.
Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Golden Miller) – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Caldwell Potter (7/1) – Paul Nicholls / Harry Cobden
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7. A narrow age window — prime novice chasers in their second or third season over fences dominate this race.
Price: 5 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and 11 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. This is one of the strongest market-to-winner correlations of any race on Day 3 — despite being a handicap, the top of the market is exceptionally reliable.
Last Run: 9 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 10 of the last 12 ran within the last 61 days. A recent winning run is a powerful positive.
Previous Course Form: Every single winner (12/12) had previously run at Cheltenham, and 8 of the last 12 had already won there. This is one of the most emphatic course form trends at the Festival — a horse who has never run at Cheltenham before has almost no chance.
Previous Distance Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19–21 furlongs, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins over that trip. Proven form and winning form at two-and-a-half miles are both important.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every single winner (12/12) had run over hurdles at least 3 times, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 3 hurdle wins. A deep hurdles background is a consistent feature across all winners.
Previous Chase Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 2 previous chase wins. Horses with minimal experience over fences are firmly against the trends.
Rating: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 146 or higher. Despite being a handicap, the ratings bar is high — this is elite novice chase company.
Graded Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level. Strong graded form is close to a requirement.
Season Form: Every single winner (12/12) had run at least twice that season, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins that season. A horse with just 1 win this season has a poor record here.
❌Horse to Avoid: Any horse who has never run at Cheltenham before — the record is 0 from 12 with no exceptions. Also avoid horses rated below 146, anything with fewer than 3 chase runs, and anything aged 8 or older.
Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Lossiemouth (4/6F) – Willie Mullins / Paul Townend
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 5 and 7. Older mares aged 8 or more have a very poor record in this race.
Price: 5 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and 10 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. The market is a reliable guide — Willie Mullins has won 11 of 18 runnings, making his entries the obvious starting point for any shortlist.
Last Run: 8 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 11 of the last 12 ran within the last 52 days.
Previous Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and 4 of the last 12 had a previous win at the course. Having run here before is a meaningful positive, though a previous Cheltenham win is not required.
Previous Distance Form: This is one of the strongest distance form trends at the Festival. 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19–21 furlongs, 10 of the last 12 had at least 3 previous runs over that trip, 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over the distance, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins. A deep and proven record at two-and-a-half miles is close to essential.
Previous Hurdle Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 6 previous hurdle runs, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 3 hurdle wins. This is a race for experienced, battle-tested mares — lightly raced types are firmly against the trends.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 148 or higher.
Graded Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Grade 1, 2 or 3 level.
Season Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice that season, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: Mares aged 8 or older — 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5, 6 or 7. Also swerve mares without at least 6 hurdle runs — 11 of the last 12 winners had cleared that bar.
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Bob Olinger – Henry de Bromhead / Rachael Blackmore
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8. The Stayers’ is a race for horses in their prime — youngsters and veterans alike have a consistently poor record.
Price: Only 3 of the last 12 winners started as outright favourite, and just 5 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. Despite being a Grade 1 championship race, the Stayers’ is one of the most open at the Festival from a market perspective — this is one of the best races of the week to look beyond the obvious market leaders.
Last Run: Only 5 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 9 of the last 12 had their last run within the last 80 days.
Key Trials: The Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham has produced 4 of the last 12 winners (2 won it, 1 placed). The Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown has produced 3 of the last 12 winners (1 won, 2 placed). Both are the key warm-up routes to monitor.
Previous Course Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and 7 of the last 12 had won at the course. Cheltenham experience is very important — horses who have never run at the track have almost no record in this race.
Previous Distance Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 23–25 furlongs, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over that trip. Proven staying form is close to a prerequisite.
Previous Hurdle Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 8 previous hurdle runs, 11 of the last 12 had at least 3 hurdle wins, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 4 wins over hurdles. The Stayers’ is for deeply experienced, battle-hardened hurdlers — horses without a very long hurdles career are against the trends.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 156 or higher.
Graded Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 Grade 1 win, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 Grade 2 win. A strong graded CV across both levels is consistent with the winner profile.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice that season, but only 7 of the last 12 had at least 1 win. A horse without a win this season can absolutely take the Stayers’ — this is one of the few Grade 1s where a winless current campaign is not a significant negative.
❌Horse to Avoid: Short-priced favourites — only 3 of the last 12 won. Also avoid horses who have never run at Cheltenham before, and anything rated below 152.
Ryanair Chase – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Fact To File – Willie Mullins / Mark Walsh
Age: Every single winner of the last 12 renewals (12/12) was aged between 7 and 9. This is the most absolute age trend of any Grade 1 at the Festival — horses aged 6 or younger and those aged 10 or older are 0 from 12 with no exceptions whatsoever.
Price: 6 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and 10 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. The market is a sound guide in this Grade 1.
Last Run: Only 4 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 10 of the last 12 ran within the last 77 days.
Key Warning: The King George VI Chase at Kempton has produced 3 of the last 12 Ryanair runners last time out — none of those 3 won, with just 1 placing. Horses arriving from a King George run have an actively poor record in the Ryanair and should be treated with caution regardless of their reputation.
Previous Course Form: Every single winner (12/12) had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 previous win at the course. Multiple Cheltenham visits are close to a hard requirement.
Previous Distance Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 19–21 furlongs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins over that trip. Elite form at two-and-a-half miles is essential.
Previous Hurdle Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous hurdle runs, 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 hurdle win, and 7 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins.
Previous Chase Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 4 previous chase wins. The Ryanair is for elite, highly experienced chasers — horses relatively new to fencing do not win this race.
Rating: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 162 or higher. Only the Gold Cup has a higher ratings threshold among Festival championship races.
Graded Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win at Grade 1, 2 or 3 level, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 Grade 1 win specifically.
Season Form: 7 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: Horses aged 6 or 10+ — 0 from 12 with zero exceptions. Also swerve last-time-out King George runners given their poor Ryanair record, and anything rated below 160.
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Doddiethegreat (25/1) – Nicky Henderson / Brian Hughes
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.
Price: Another notoriously open handicap. Only 2 of the last 12 winners started as favourite, just 5 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting, and 7 of the last 12 were priced at 10/1 or bigger. Backing short prices here has been a losing strategy historically.
Weight: 8 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 4lb or less. Horses lower in the weights have a clear edge — the top of the handicap struggles here.
Last Run: Only 3 of the last 12 winners won their last race, but 11 of the last 12 had their previous run within the last 61 days. Crucially, 6 of the last 12 winners ran in a Pertemps Qualifier last time out — and though only 1 of those 6 won it (with 2 placing), running in a qualifier last time is still a meaningful positive pointer. You are looking for horses that were active in the qualifier series, not necessarily topping it.
Previous Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, but only 2 of the last 12 had previously won there. Having run at the course is a gentle positive; a previous Cheltenham win is not required.
Previous Distance Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23–25 furlongs, and 6 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over that trip. Proven stamina matters but is not an absolute requirement.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner (12/12) had run over hurdles at least 6 times, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 7 hurdle runs. This is a race for experienced, seasoned hurdlers — lightly raced horses are firmly against the trends. 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins.
Rating: 8 of the last 12 winners were rated between 134 and 146. The well-handicapped horse within that sweet spot is the profile to find — horses rated above 146 have a consistently poor record.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, but only 5 of the last 12 had at least 1 win. A horse in reasonable form without a win this season is very much still in play here.
❌Horse to Avoid: The favourite — only 2 of the last 12 won. Also avoid horses with fewer than 6 hurdle runs, and anything rated above 146. Horses at the very top of the weights tend to be well-found in the market but significantly underperform in the results.
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Daily Present – Paul Nolan / Barry Thomas Stone
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.
Price: Another race that emphatically defies the market. Only 2 of the last 12 winners started as favourite, and just 6 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. Big-priced horses are a genuine threat — this is one of the best races at the Festival for finding a value winner.
Weight: 10 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 0lb or more. Unlike most Festival handicaps where lighter weights have an advantage, the Kim Muir consistently favours horses towards the top of the weights. This is one of the most important differentiators when assessing the Kim Muir field.
Last Run: Only 1 of the last 12 winners won their last race — the lowest last-time-out strike rate of any race at the entire Festival. However, 11 of the last 12 ran within the last 76 days. The profile to find is a busy, active horse that has been running regularly without necessarily winning.
Previous Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, but only 2 had a previous win there. Having run at the course is a useful positive; winning there is not required.
Previous Distance Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 24–26 furlongs, and 5 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over that trip. Proven stamina is important for this unique staying test, but a previous win at the trip is not a strict requirement.
Previous Hurdle Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, and every single winner (12/12) had at least 1 hurdle win. A hurdles win on the record is as close to a hard requirement as any trend in this race — a horse without one simply does not feature.
Previous Chase Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 chase win.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 134 and 143. A narrower ratings band than most Festival handicaps — horses rated significantly above or below that range both struggle.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, but only 3 of the last 12 had at least 1 win. This is the most forgiving race at the entire Festival for current-season form — a horse without a win since last season has an excellent record. You are looking for busy, active horses rather than recent winners.
❌Horse to Avoid: The favourite — only 2 of the last 12 won. Crucially, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have no winning record in the Kim Muir, making their runners considerably less dangerous here than in any other race at the Festival. Also swerve anything rated outside the 134–143 band and horses without a hurdles win on their record.
Looking for the best free bets to use across St Patrick’s Thursday? Our Cheltenham free bets hub covers every current sign-up offer from our affiliate partners. For tips and selections across all four days, head to our Cheltenham Festival tips hub. The Stayers’ Hurdle and Ryanair Chase are two of the most compelling Grade 1s of the week — Tom Segal’s Cheltenham tips and Ruby Walsh’s Cheltenham tips both cover Day 3 in detail. For new accounts before the Festival, Boylesports’ Cheltenham offer includes extra places on all non-handicap races — particularly well-suited to the four Grade 1s on Thursday — while the Betfred Cheltenham offer covers NRNB across all 28 Festival races.
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.