Last Updated on 02/03/2026 by Andy Clark
Gold Cup Day is the fourth and final day of the Cheltenham Festival, taking place on Friday 13th March 2026 and below, you will find all the key trends for each race to help with your betting.
The day is headlined by the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, jump racing’s most coveted prize, and also features the JCB Triumph Hurdle, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, and the County Hurdle. In 2025, Ireland swept all seven races on the final day with Willie Mullins training the first four winners alone. Below are the key historical trends for every race on Gold Cup Day to help you build your shortlists.
Read More: Cheltenham Day 1 Trends | Cheltenham Day 2 Trends | Cheltenham Day 3 Trends
JCB Triumph Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Poniros (100/1) – Willie Mullins / Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
Age: The Triumph Hurdle is restricted to four-year-olds only — every runner in the field is the same age.
Price: 5 of the last 12 winners started as favourite, and 6 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. The market is a reasonable but far from infallible guide — the 2025 winner Poniros at 100/1 is proof that extraordinary upsets can happen. The race is regularly competitive and open.
Last Run: 6 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, 10 of the last 12 at least placed, and 11 of the last 12 ran within the last 48 days. A recent placed run at minimum is close to essential — horses without a placed run last time out have almost no record here.
Key Trials: The Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown has produced 7 of the last 12 runners, with 2 winning and 4 placing — an extraordinary stat that makes it the single most important prep race for the Triumph by some distance, even if winning it is no guarantee. The Finesse Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham has produced 2 of the last 12 runners, both of whom won it and went on to win the Triumph.
Previous Course Form: Course experience is not required. Only 2 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and just 2 had a previous win there. Festival debutants regularly win this race.
Previous Distance Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over the trip.
Previous Hurdle Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous hurdle runs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 hurdle win. A horse with just 1 hurdle run and 1 win is not without a chance, but most winners have more experience than that.
Rating: 8 of the last 12 winners were rated 139 or higher — though 4 of the last 12 did not yet hold an official rating when they won. This is the highest proportion of unrated winners at the Festival, reflecting how open and unexposed the juvenile field often is.
Graded Form: Only 6 of the last 12 winners had a previous graded win. An unproven juvenile can absolutely take the Triumph.
Season Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least once that season, 8 of the last 12 had at least 2 runs, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win. A horse who has not run at all this season — or who has not yet won — is against the trends.
❌Horse to Avoid: Horses who failed to place on their most recent run — 10 of the last 12 winners at least placed last time out. Also be cautious about any horse that has not run in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle or another recognised juvenile Grade route, as routes into this race matter more than in most Festival races.
William Hill County Handicap Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Kargese – Willie Mullins / Paul Townend
Age: 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6. Older hurdlers aged 7 or more rarely feature in the results.
Price: The County is one of the most open handicaps at the entire Festival. Only 3 of the last 12 winners started as favourite, just 4 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting, and 8 of the last 12 were priced at 10/1 or bigger. This is firmly a race to look beyond the market leaders.
Weight: 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 3lb or less. Horses lower in the handicap carry a clear advantage — top weights struggle enormously here.
Last Run: Only 3 of the last 12 winners won their last race, and 9 of the last 12 had their previous run within the last 80 days. A horse without a recent run is against the trends, but winning last time is not a requirement.
Previous Course Form: 8 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, but only 2 of the last 12 had a previous win there. Having run at the course is a meaningful positive; winning there is not required.
Previous Distance Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs, 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over the trip, and 8 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins over two miles. Experience and a proven winning record at the County’s sharp two-mile trip is one of the clearest trends in the race.
Previous Hurdle Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 6 previous hurdle runs, every winner (12/12) had at least 1 previous hurdle win, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles. This is a race for experienced, battle-tested two-mile hurdlers — lightly raced horses are firmly against the trends.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 134 and 141. A narrow, well-defined ratings band — horses rated significantly above or below that range both have a poor record. Finding the unexposed horse within that bracket is the task.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice that season, and 7 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: The favourite — only 3 of the last 12 won. Also avoid anything rated above 141 (top weights consistently underperform), horses aged 7 or older, and anything with fewer than 6 hurdle runs. The race is difficult to win fresh — horses with just 1 recent run are also against the trends.
Paddy Power Mares’ Steeple Chase – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Dinoblue (6/4F) – Willie Mullins / Mark Walsh
The Mares’ Chase has only been run five times, making firm statistical trends premature — but the early patterns are striking and worth noting carefully.
Age: All five winners to date have been aged 7 or 8. There is no meaningful sample at other ages, and the early evidence suggests prime-aged mares dominate.
Trainer: All five winners have been trained in Ireland. No British-trained mare has yet won this race.
Owner: The first four winners all carried the JP McManus silks — he also owned the runner-up, Elimay, in the inaugural renewal. Dinoblue carried his famous green and gold to victory in 2025. The McManus connection is the most striking ownership trend of any race at the Festival.
Price: None of the five winners returned bigger than 3/1. This is one of the shortest-priced race profiles at the Festival — it has been dominated by near-certainties. Dinoblue was sent off at 6/4 in 2025.
Rating: None of the five winners held an official rating lower than 147 — this is a race for elite-rated mares, not those on modest marks.
Chase Experience: Four of the five winners were relatively lightly raced over fences — Impervious had 4 chase runs, Colreevy had 5, and Limerick Lace had 9. Dinoblue (2025) was the exception with 15 chase outings. A mare who has been freshened up for chasing can win this — extreme chase mileage is not required.
Key Summary: If you are looking for a trends shortlist for this race, start with an Irish-trained, JP McManus-owned mare aged 7 or 8, rated 147+, at a price of 3/1 or shorter. That profile has delivered all five winners so far.
❌Horse to Avoid: British-trained mares — 0 from all five renewals. Also, swerve mares rated below 147 and anything priced above 5/1 (no winner has returned bigger than 3/1 in five renewals).
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Jasmin De Vaux – Willie Mullins / Paul Townend
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7. A narrow age profile — horses aged 5 or younger and those aged 8 or older have a very poor record.
Price: The Albert Bartlett is the single most open race at the entire Festival from a market perspective. Not one of the last 12 winners (0/12) started as outright favourite, just 2 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting, and 10 of the last 12 were priced at 11/1 or bigger. This is the worst race at the Festival to back the market leader — the favourite is essentially a lay here.
Last Run: Only 4 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 9 of the last 12 had their last run within the last 54 days. The Albert Bartlett regularly throws up horses who arrive with modest recent form.
Key Warning: The Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novices’ Hurdle at Leopardstown has produced 3 of the last 12 runners last time out — none of those 3 won, and none placed. Horses that ran in that race last time are actively against the trends.
Previous Course Form: Only 3 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and 3 of the last 12 had a previous win there. Course experience is a mild positive, but not required.
Previous Distance Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 23–25 furlongs, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over that trip. Proven three-mile form over hurdles is one of the strongest trends in the race — a horse without a win at the trip is almost never the winner.
Previous Hurdle Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous hurdle runs, 7 of the last 12 had at least 4 hurdle runs, 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 previous hurdle win, but only 5 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins. The Albert Bartlett can be won by a horse with just 1 previous hurdle win — more so than any other Grade 1 novice hurdle at the Festival.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 136 or higher — though 2 of the last 12 did not yet hold a rating when they won.
Graded Form: Only 5 of the last 12 winners had a previous graded win. A lightly-raced, unexposed novice can absolutely take this prize — it is one of the most beginner-friendly Grade 1s at the Festival.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win. Despite the surprising prices, most winners had been reasonably active and had at least 1 win that season.
❌Horse to Avoid: The favourite — not one of the last 12 winners started as market leader. Also, avoid anything that ran in the Nathaniel Lacy at Leopardstown last time (0 wins, 0 places in recent history). Horses with fewer than 3 hurdle runs are also against the trends.
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Inothewayurthinkin – Gavin Cromwell / Mark Walsh
Age: Every single winner of the last 12 Gold Cups (12/12) was aged between 7 and 9. This is the most important trend in jump racing — no horse aged 6 or younger and no horse aged 10 or older has won the Gold Cup in the last 12 renewals, with no exceptions.
Price: 5 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and 8 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. The market is a solid guide in this supreme test, though the favourite is still beaten in 7 of 12 renewals.
Last Run: 8 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race — a high last-time-out strike rate that reflects the quality of preparation required. 11 of the last 12 had their last run within the last 80 days, and every single winner (12/12) had their last run at least 33 days before the Gold Cup. Freshness is a key factor — a horse who ran last week is against the trends.
Key Trials: The Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown is the most important prep race in the calendar — 6 of the last 12 winners ran there last time, with 3 winning it. The Denman Chase at Newbury has produced 2 of the last 12 winners, both of whom won it. The New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore has also produced 2 of the last 12 winners, both winning it.
Previous Course Form: Every single winner (12/12) had previously run at Cheltenham, and 8 of the last 12 had previously won at the course. You cannot win the Gold Cup without having run at Cheltenham before — it is the only race at the Festival where this is a 100% absolute.
Previous Distance Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9 of the last 12 had at least 3 such runs, 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over 24 furlongs or further, and 8 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins over the distance. Proven winning form at Gold Cup trips is close to a hard requirement.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner (12/12) had run over hurdles at least 4 times, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins. Every Gold Cup winner of the last 12 years has been a horse with a meaningful hurdles background.
Previous Chase Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, every winner (12/12) had at least 2 previous chase wins, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 3 chase wins. The Gold Cup is not won by lightly-raced chasers.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 164 or higher, and 5 of the last 12 were rated 170 or higher. The ratings bar for the Gold Cup is the highest of any race at the entire Festival.
Graded Form: Every single winner (12/12) had won at least 1 Grade 1 race, and 7 of the last 12 had won at least 2 Grade 1s. Not winning a Grade 1 before the Gold Cup is effectively a disqualifying factor — it has never happened in the last 12 renewals. 7 of the last 12 had also won a Grade 2.
Season Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice that season, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: Horses aged 6 or 10+ — 0 from 12 with no exceptions whatsoever. Also, avoid horses who have never run at Cheltenham before (0 from 12), anything without at least 1 Grade 1 win (0 from 12), and horses rated below 162. The Gold Cup is the most trend-compliant race at the Festival — the winner almost always ticks every major box.
St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Wonderwall – S. Curling / Robert James
Age: Every single winner of the last 12 renewals (12/12) was aged 8 or older. This is the same absolute age threshold as the Cross Country Chase — both are races for mature, experienced horses with long careers.
Price: The Hunters’ Chase is one of the most open races at the Festival. Only 3 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and just 4 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. Big-priced winners are the norm rather than the exception.
Last Run: 6 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, 9 of the last 12 won or at least placed, and 10 of the last 12 had their last run within the last 43 days. Recent form — and specifically a recent placed run at minimum — matters in this race.
Previous Course Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, but only 2 of the last 12 had a previous win there. Familiarity with the track matters; winning at it previously does not.
Previous Distance Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 26–27 furlongs, and 4 of those 9 had at least 1 win over that trip. Proven stamina is important but a win at the exact distance is not required.
Previous Chase Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 previous chase win. Lightly-raced chasers without a win over fences are firmly against the trends.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 126 or higher.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice that season, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win that season. Active horses in current form dominate — point-to-point horses being brought to the Festival on limited runs are against the trends.
❌Horse to Avoid: Horses aged 7 or younger — 0 from 12 with no exceptions. Also, swerve horses who have not placed on their most recent run, and anything without a previous chase win.
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Wodhooh – Gordon Elliott / Danny Gilligan
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6. Despite being restricted to conditional jockeys, this is still predominantly a race for young, lightly-raced hurdlers in their prime years.
Price: Not one of the last 12 winners (0/12) started as the outright favourite — making this the joint-worst favourite record of any race at the entire Festival alongside the Albert Bartlett. However, 5 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. Unlike the Albert Bartlett, horses close to the market lead without being favourite can still win, but the actual market leader is a consistent losing proposition.
Weight: 9 of the last 12 winners carried between 11st 3lb and 11st 9lb. This is a well-defined weight band — horses at the very top or very bottom of the handicap have a consistently poor record. The sweet spot is the mid-range of the weights.
Last Run: 6 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 10 of the last 12 had their previous run within the last 62 days. Recent form and fitness both matter.
Previous Course Form: 6 of the last 11 winners had previously run at Cheltenham (note: one year’s data incomplete), but only 2 of the last 12 had a previous win there. Having run at the course is a meaningful positive; winning there is not required.
Previous Distance Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 19–21 furlongs, and 7 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over that trip. Familiarity at around two-and-a-half miles is close to essential.
Previous Hurdle Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 4 previous hurdle runs, every winner (12/12) had at least 1 previous hurdle win, and 7 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins. A horse without a hurdle win on their record simply does not win this race.
Rating: Every single winner (12/12) was rated between 135 and 145. This is the narrowest and most absolute ratings band of any handicap at the Festival — the winner profile is extremely well-defined. Anything rated above 145 or below 135 has no winning record in this race.
Season Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win. An active, winning-form horse is the profile to find.
❌Horse to Avoid: The favourite — 0 from 12 with no exceptions. The rating filter is the most powerful in the race: anything rated outside 135–145 simply does not win. Also avoid horses aged 7 or older, anything with fewer than 4 hurdle runs, and horses who have not won over hurdles.
Looking for the best free bets to use across Gold Cup Day? Our Cheltenham free bets hub covers every current sign-up offer from our affiliate partners. For selections and analysis across all four days, head to our Cheltenham Festival tips hub. For the Gold Cup specifically, Ruby Walsh’s Cheltenham tips and Tom Segal’s Cheltenham tips both offer detailed ante-post views on jump racing’s biggest race. For new accounts before the Festival, the bet365 Cheltenham offer includes their popular 6 Horses Challenge which is well-suited to Gold Cup Day, while Betfred’s Cheltenham offer covers NRNB on all 28 Festival races including the Gold Cup itself.
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.