Our LASK vs Celtic bet builder tips and predictions start with the aggregate: Celtic lead 3-0, so LASK need four goals to win the tie and three to force extra time.
The hosts have scored 22 in ten at home at 2.2 a game, and no side in our data takes more shots, which is why our best bets here are prop bets.
LASK vs Celtic
M. Usor 1+ Shot on Target
8/10Two, 2, 2, 0, 1 and 1 in his last six – on target in five of them, at 1.66 per 90 across 1,192 minutes.
He managed two in the first leg at Celtic Park, one of only two LASK players to test the goalkeeper more than once that night.
B. Nygren 1+ Shot on Target
7/10One, 2, 1, 1, 1 and 0 in his last six, at 1.17 per 90 across 1,236 minutes – the largest Celtic sample now Maeda has gone.
With a three-goal lead to protect he may see less of the ball, but he is also the most likely outlet on the break.
M. Bogarde 1+ Foul Drawn
7/10Nought, 1, 1, 1, 1 and 3 in his last six – fouled in five of them, at 1.73 per 90 across 1,509 minutes.
LASK are fouled 2.90 times a game in the final third, the higher of the two sides, and a team chasing four goals spends the evening in there.
S. Kalajdzic 1+ Foul Drawn
7/10One, 0, 2, 2, 3 and 2 in his last six, at 1.65 per 90 across 1,094 minutes.
A target man against a Celtic back line missing Scales and Johnston to suspension and injury.
Y. Hyun-Jun 1+ Tackle
8/10One, 4, 4, 1, 2 and 1 in his last six – a tackle in all six, at 2.36 per 90 across 1,260 minutes.
The steadiest defensive run in either squad, and one of only two Celtic players here with a full season of minutes behind him.
S. Horvath 1+ Tackle
6/10Two, 0, 2, 1, 2 and 6 in his last six, at 2.05 per 90 across 1,538 minutes.
The six against Salzburg carries the average, which is the caution – his median is two.
Over 9.5 Corners
7/10LASK took 5.30 corners a game and Celtic 6.41, for 11.7 between them.
A side needing four goals takes more corners than its average, not fewer, and LASK put in 5.15 accurate crosses a match.
There Is No Card Bet Here, and the Referee Is the Reason
LASK matches averaged 2.95 cards last season and Celtic’s 3.71, so the two sides sit at 3.33 between them – the lowest combined figure we have logged this season.
Sandro Scharer books 3.90 a game across 25 UEFA club matches in his last three seasons, which pulls the line back up. The teams say under, the official says over, and the two cancel out.
Where his record does say something useful is leniency: 6.70 fouls per card in the Europa League against 5.68 in the Swiss Super League. He lets more go in Europe than at home.
Hogh and Iheanacho Are Not Bets at Any Price
Kasper Hogh’s 4.81 shots per 90 is the highest figure on this page and comes from three appearances, one of them a nine-shot game at Kilmarnock. Iheanacho’s 2.77 per 90 comes from 260 minutes across six substitute cameos. Both would read as the best prop bets here and neither is one.
- 1Over 2.5 Goals14 of LASK’s last 20, 15 of Celtic’s
- 2Both Teams to Score14 of LASK’s last 20, 14 of Celtic’s
- 3S. Adeniran 1+ Shot on TargetOn target in 5 of his last 6
- 4X. Mbuyamba 2+ Tackles2 or more in 5 of his last 6
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average better than two goals a game, and LASK carry 2.07 expected goals for against 1.02 against.
A side needing four goals does not sit in, and LASK have taken 17.6 shots a game to get here.
Both Teams to Score
Neither side has failed to score more than twice in twenty, and both kept five clean sheets.
Celtic scoring is the safer half – eighteen of twenty, and seventeen goals in nine away.
S. Adeniran 1+ Shot on Target
Sixty-one shots and 28 on target across 1,380 minutes, the largest attacking sample in either squad.
He had three on target in the first leg at Celtic Park, more than any other player on the pitch.
X. Mbuyamba 2+ Tackles
Twenty-five tackles across 1,047 minutes from centre-back, at 2.15 per 90.
The one match in six that fell short was a one-minute appearance against Salzburg.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
LASK vs Celtic Key Stats and Insights
- 17.6 shots a game for LASK, the highest figure in our records from any side, with 11.35 of them inside the box.
- 3.85 big chances a game created by LASK against 2.35 missed — the widest gap between creation and conversion we have logged.
- 22 goals in 10 home games at 2.2 a match, with 11 conceded.
- 2.95 cards a match in LASK games and 1.05 of their own, both the lowest figures in our data — though Sandro Schärer books 3.90 a game in Europe, which is why there is no card bet on this page. Our card tips rarely find two sides this clean and a referee this busy.
- 0.35 red cards a game in LASK matches against 0.24 in Celtic’s — high for two sides who commit around eleven fouls each.
- 18 of 20 unbeaten for Celtic, who won fourteen and lost three.
- 6.70 fouls per card for Schärer in the Europa League against 5.68 in the Swiss Super League — the same official is measurably more lenient in Europe than at home.
- 6 shots on target for Samuel Adeniran across the first leg and the five matches before it, three of them at Celtic Park.
LASK vs Celtic Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 Goals — 14 of LASK’s Last 20, 15 of Celtic’s
Seventy per cent of LASK’s matches cleared 2.5 and 75% of Celtic’s, and both sides average better than two goals a game. LASK carry 2.07 expected goals for against 1.02 against; Celtic 1.98 and 0.98. Neither has a defensive record that suggests a quiet evening.
The tie state pushes the same way. A side needing four goals does not sit in, and LASK have taken 17.6 shots a game to get to this point. Celtic will have space on the break that they have not had in a domestic season where they held 58.8% of the ball.
What beats it is Celtic managing the game rather than winning it. A 1-0 or 0-0 at Raiffeisen Arena settles the tie just as well as a 3-3, and a Celtic side that has conceded 1.11 a game away from home may decide the evening is about keeping it dull. That is the one shape in which this leg fails.
Both Teams to Score — 14 of LASK’s Last 20, 14 of Celtic’s
Fourteen of twenty for each, and neither side has failed to score more than twice in the sample. LASK have kept five clean sheets in twenty and Celtic five, so the defensive records are identical, and neither is watertight.
Celtic scoring is the safer half. They have found the net in eighteen of twenty, and their away record reads seventeen goals in nine, and even a side protecting a lead takes chances when the opposition is committed forward. LASK have blanked twice in twenty, both times away from home.
The risk is one of personnel rather than form. Celtic are without Jota, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Scales and Johnston, and have lost Maeda and Engels since the first leg — that is six players out of a squad that will already be rotating with the tie won.
S. Adeniran 1+ Shot on Target — On Target in 5 of His Last 6
Three, two, nought, three, one and one in his last six, at 1.83 per 90 across 1,380 minutes. Sixty-one shots and 28 on target is the largest attacking sample in either squad, and he had three on target in the first leg at Celtic Park — more than any other player on the pitch.
The volume is not a fluke of one match. His shot counts read 6, 2, 2, 7, 1 and 1, so there are quiet nights in there, but the on-target line asks for one rather than several. That is the leg to take rather than a shots line at a shorter price, and it is how we price most of our shots on target prop bets.
The single blank in six came away at Austria Wien across a full ninety minutes, which is the honest caveat — he is capable of an anonymous evening. Playing at home with his side chasing four goals is not the setting for one.
X. Mbuyamba 2+ Tackles — 2 or More in 5 of His Last 6
Two, three, three, two, four and one in his last six, at 2.15 per 90 across 1,047 minutes. Five of six clearing two, and the one that did not was a one-minute appearance against Salzburg.
He is a centre-back rather than a midfielder, which is what makes the number unusual — 25 tackles from that position is a defender stepping out rather than holding a line. Against a Celtic side that will counter into space behind a committed LASK team, there should be more of that than usual.
The argument against is the same tie state that helps the other three legs. If LASK are chasing the game, they will have the ball, and a defender with the ball does not tackle. His floor across six matches is one, and it is the leg most likely to fall a single action short — the recurring risk on tackles and fouls prop bets.
How the Four Fit Together
Two goals legs and two prop bets, and the two goals legs overlap — a match with goals at both ends has usually cleared 2.5 as well, so the price is shorter than four independent selections would be. That is normal for a build, and we set out why on our bet builder tips page.
Everything here depends on LASK attacking, which the aggregate makes near certain. The leg that could let it down is Mbuyamba, for the opposite reason to the others: he needs LASK to be under pressure, and the rest need them not to be.
LASK vs Celtic Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to LASK. Our model gives them 39%, the draw 24% and Celtic 37% on the night, from expected goals of 1.60 and 1.55 — but Celtic go through comfortably either way from 3-0 up. No price was available when this was written, so compare the odds before backing anything.
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More Betting Help
- Shots on target tips across tonight’s ties
- Corner predictions for every fixture we cover
- Total goals tips this week
- Compare UK bookmakers before you place it
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
