Our Bradford vs Burnley bet builder tips, predictions and best bets rest on two sides going in opposite directions. Burnley won one of their last twenty and conceded 41 goals; Bradford kept six clean sheets and conceded 0.6 a game at home. Two of our four legs are prop bets.
Bradford City vs Burnley
B. Pointon 1+ Foul Drawn
8/10Three, 0, 1, 1, 2 and 3 in his last six – fouled in five of them, at 2.29 per 90 across 1,022 minutes.
Bradford are fouled 2.95 times a game in the final third against Burnley’s 0.95, the widest gap on the page. A side that enters the final third 86 times a match spends the evening in exactly the areas where fouls happen.
H. Mejbri 1+ Foul Drawn
8/10Nought, 0, 3, 1, 3 and 3 in his last six, at 2.62 per 90 across 960 minutes – the best rate in either squad.
Bradford commit 12.45 fouls a game and take 2.20 cards of their own, both higher than Burnley’s figures. Mejbri is one of the few Burnley players in our tables who survived the summer.
H. Mejbri to be Carded
6/10Seven yellows in 960 minutes at 0.66 per 90, the highest card rate in either squad, and booked in three of his last six.
The reason this sits at 6 rather than higher is the official. Martin Coy has two senior matches in our data – one at 5.00 cards and one at 1.00 – so there is no referee figure behind any card line on this page.
Z. Flemming 2+ Shots
6/10Nine, 2, 0, 5, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 3.30 per 90 across 1,200 minutes.
The run is the caution rather than the rate. A nine-shot game against West Ham and a five against Aston Villa carry most of the total, and he has cleared two in four of six with two blanks in the other two.
He is the last recognised forward Burnley have left in our tables after Anthony, Tchaouna and Koleosho all left, so the volume should come whether or not the accuracy does.
Bradford Over 4.5 Team Corners
7/10Bradford took 6.35 corners a game last season with 3.35 of them before the break, against Burnley’s 3.65 – and Bradford are the side a division below.
They enter the final third 86.35 times a match, the highest figure in our records by a wide margin, and take 30.25 throw-ins. That is a direct side that puts the ball into the box constantly rather than one that builds.
Burnley clear it 27.15 times a game and block 3.30 shots. A defence in that shape concedes corners whether or not it concedes goals.
There Is No Card Bet on This Page and the Referee Is Why
Martin Coy has two senior fixtures in our data: one League Two match at 5.00 cards and one League One match at 1.00. That is not a sample, it is two numbers. Bradford matches averaged 4.25 cards and Burnley’s 3.20, so the sides would support a card line – but every card figure we publish is priced off the official’s rate, and there is no rate here to use.
Burnley’s Figures Describe a Relegation Season
One win in twenty, one clean sheet, 41 conceded and 1.96 expected goals against – the worst defensive numbers in our data this season. They were made in the Premier League and Burnley are a Championship club now, so they understate what this squad does against lower opposition. Every leg on this page carries that adjustment.
Both Squads Were Rebuilt This Summer
Burnley lost Esteve, Tchaouna, Florentino, Anthony, Koleosho, Ugochukwu, Dubravka and Hartman – roughly a hundred million pounds of players. Bradford lost Wheatley, Metcalfe, Tilt, Evans, Cook, Mullin and Power. Fourteen names came out of the tables between them, which is why this page runs on one block rather than two.
- 1Under 2.5 Goals13 of Bradford’s last 20, 9 of Burnley’s
- 2No Both Teams to Score10 of Bradford’s last 20, 7 of Burnley’s
- 3K. Jackson 1+ FoulA foul in all 6 of his last 6
- 4G. Lapslie 2+ Tackles2 or more in 5 of his last 6
Under 2.5 Goals
Bradford conceded 0.6 a game at home with six clean sheets, and carry 0.94 expected goals for against 0.67 against.
Burnley’s 55% over 2.5 was earned in the Premier League against sides who could punish them. Against a League One defence that concedes at 0.6 a game, that record is not the one that applies.
No Both Teams to Score
Burnley failed to score in seven of twenty, the higher blank count of the two sides, and managed 0.9 a game away from home.
Bradford kept six clean sheets and conceded six goals across ten home matches. This is the leg the fixture’s shape supports most directly.
K. Jackson 1+ Foul
One, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 4 in his last six, at 2.18 per 90 across 786 minutes. Nobody else in either squad has fouled in all six.
Bradford commit 12.45 fouls a game, the higher figure of the two sides, and Jackson carries a large share of it from the front.
G. Lapslie 2+ Tackles
One, 3, 2, 2, 7 and 2 in his last six, at 3.68 per 90 across 440 minutes – the best tackle rate at Bradford.
The minutes are the caution. Four hundred and forty across the sample means he is not an ever-present, and a cup tie is where a squad player either starts or does not.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Bradford’s are League One figures and Burnley’s Premier League.
Bradford vs Burnley Key Stats and Insights
- 1 win in 20 for Burnley, with eight draws and eleven defeats, one clean sheet and 41 goals conceded.
- 86.35 final third entries a game for Bradford, the highest figure in our records by a wide margin, alongside 30.25 throw-ins a match.
- 6 clean sheets in 20 for Bradford, who conceded six goals across ten home matches at 0.6 a game.
- 1.96 expected goals against for Burnley, the worst defensive figure in our data this season.
- 6.35 corners a game for Bradford against Burnley’s 3.65 — the side a division below takes nearly twice as many, which is why they lead our corner predictions for this round.
- 2 senior matches in Martin Coy’s record — one at five cards, one at one. There is no referee figure behind any card line on this page.
- 7 of 20 Burnley matches ended without a goal from them, against four for Bradford.
Bradford vs Burnley Bet Builder Tips
Under 2.5 Goals — 13 of Bradford’s Last 20, 9 of Burnley’s
Bradford conceded six goals across ten home matches at 0.6 a game and kept six clean sheets across the twenty. Their expected goals figures — 0.94 for and 0.67 against — are the lowest pair on either side of this tie and describe a side that plays tight matches by design.
Burnley went over 2.5 in eleven of twenty and past 3.5 in ten, which looks like the argument against. It is not, because those figures were earned in the Premier League against sides able to punish a defence conceding 2.05 a game. Against League One opposition that is not the record that applies.
What beats it is Bradford’s own directness. Eighty-six final third entries a match and 5.30 accurate crosses is a side that generates chaos in the box, and chaos produces goals as often as it produces corners. If this one opens up early it will be at their end.
No Both Teams to Score — 10 of Bradford’s Last 20, 7 of Burnley’s
Burnley failed to score in seven of twenty and managed 0.9 a game away from home, the lower of the two attacking records here. They also carry 0.89 expected goals for, which says the blanks were earned rather than unlucky.
Bradford kept six clean sheets and conceded 0.6 at home, so the leg has support from both directions. Only one Burnley match in twenty ended without either side scoring, but that statistic describes a defence that could not keep anyone out rather than an attack that always found a way.
The weakness is that this is close to the same bet as the first leg. A match with few goals usually has one end blank, so backing both shortens the price without spreading the risk — and if the tie opens up, they fail together.
K. Jackson 1+ Foul — A Foul in All 6 of His Last 6
One, three, two, two, two and four in his last six, at 2.18 per 90 across 786 minutes. Nobody else in either squad has committed a foul in all six, and the floor across the run is one.
Bradford commit 12.45 fouls a game, higher than Burnley’s 10.90, and take 2.20 cards of their own. A forward fouling at this rate for a side that fouls at that one is the most reliable player number on the page — more on how we weigh that on our tackles and fouls prop bets page.
What beats it is the referee, or rather the absence of one we can measure. Martin Coy has two senior matches in our data. A lenient official lets the first two challenges go and the count never starts, and there is no way to know from a sample that size which sort he is.
G. Lapslie 2+ Tackles — 2 or More in 5 of His Last 6
One, three, two, two, seven and two in his last six, at 3.68 per 90 across 440 minutes. The best tackle rate at Bradford and the only player in either squad clearing two in five of six.
The seven against Plymouth carries part of the average, but the run holds without it — four of the other five still cleared two, and the single miss was a 24-minute appearance. That is a genuine floor rather than one strong night inflating a per-90 figure.
The minutes are the caution and they are a real one. Four hundred and forty across twenty matches means Lapslie is a squad player, and a cup tie is exactly where a squad player either starts or watches. This is the leg most likely to fail before kick-off rather than during it.
How the Four Fit Together
Two team legs and two prop bets, and the team legs overlap heavily — a match with few goals usually has one end blank, so under 2.5 and no both teams to score are close to one bet in two parts. That shortens the price rather than spreading the risk, which is a normal way to build and something our bet builder tips page sets out in full.
Both prop bets are Bradford players, which is the concentration worth knowing. Jackson and Lapslie both need Bradford to be competitive — if Burnley take the game away early, the fouls and tackles dry up together.
The leg most likely to let it down is Lapslie, and it is his minutes rather than his record.
Bradford vs Burnley Prediction
We are predicting 0-1 to Burnley. Our model gives them 40%, the draw 27% and Bradford 33%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.30.
That is a much closer read than the badges suggest, and the adjustment is large. Run on the raw records Bradford are clear favourites, because Burnley conceded 2.3 a game away from home and Bradford 0.6 at theirs. Those figures come from the Premier League and League One respectively, and neither applies to a Championship side facing a League One one. We have regressed both towards the level this tie is actually played at.
Burnley winning one of twenty is real and it is not a reason to write them off here — it is a reason to expect a narrow evening rather than a comfortable one. No price was available when this was written. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Carabao Cup and Betting Tips
- Corner predictions for every fixture we cover
- Tackles and fouls prop bets across tonight’s ties
- Both teams to score tips this week
- Bet £10 get £40 offers compared
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
