Our Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon bet builder tips, predictions and best bets rest on the official rather than the sides.
Anthony Backhouse books 4.63 players a game in the Championship against the 3.30 these two average between them, and his published career figure understates him by almost two cards. Two of our four legs are prop bets.
Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon
Over 3.5 Cards
8/10Anthony Backhouse books 4.63 players a game across 54 Championship matches in his last three seasons – 4.80 last season alone across 25 games.
Fulham matches averaged 3.70 cards and Wimbledon’s 2.90, so the two sides sit at 3.30 between them. The referee is more than a card above that, which is the widest official-versus-teams gap we have measured this round.
His published career figure of 2.71 understates him by 1.92, the largest correction in our data. Six National League seasons recorded as 0.00 sit inside it, going back to 2010.
Over 45 Booking Points
7/10Booking points settle at 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red. Backhouse at 4.63 yellows and 0.06 reds gives 48 points before either side’s own record is counted.
That clears the line on a normal evening rather than needing anything unusual, and Wimbledon commit 12.25 fouls a game – more than Fulham despite being the side two divisions below.
The caution is Wimbledon’s discipline rather than their fouling. They take only 1.35 cards a game themselves, the lowest own-card figure in our data, so they foul often and get booked rarely.
M. Hippolyte to be Carded
8/10Six yellows in 1,093 minutes at 0.49 per 90, the highest card rate in either squad, and booked in four of his last six.
Wimbledon commit 12.25 fouls a game and Backhouse books 4.63. A midfielder carrying that rate in front of an official at that one is the clearest individual angle on the page.
A. Robinson 2+ Tackles
8/10Three, 3, 2, 3, 4 and 0 in his last six – two or more in five of them, at 2.81 per 90 across 1,153 minutes.
The single blank was a nine-minute appearance against Aston Villa, so the floor across full matches is two. Wimbledon enter the final third 64.20 times a game, more than Fulham manage themselves.
No Both Teams to Score
7/10Fulham failed to score in eight of their last twenty and Wimbledon in nine – the two highest blank counts on any page this round.
Wimbledon also scored 0.78 a game away from home and conceded two. Both halves of this have support, which is unusual for a market this shape.
AFC Wimbledon Over 4.5 Team Corners
6/10Wimbledon took 5.90 corners a game last season against Fulham’s 5.15 – the side two divisions below takes more.
They enter the final third 64.20 times a match, put in 5.80 accurate crosses and take 25.35 throw-ins. That is a direct side that puts the ball into the box rather than one that builds through it.
Fulham clear 23.80 times a game and Wimbledon will spend the evening defending, which is the argument against. A side pinned back wins fewer corners than its average.
C. Bassey 1+ Foul Drawn
7/10One, 0, 4, 3, 1 and 1 in his last six – fouled in five of them, at 1.62 per 90 across 1,276 minutes.
Wimbledon commit 12.25 fouls a game, the higher figure of the two sides, and a centre-back carrying the ball out against a League One press is where those fouls happen.
A. Smith 2+ Tackles
6/10Nought, 4, 4, 3, 2 and 1 in his last six, at 2.53 per 90 across 1,670 minutes – the largest defensive sample in either squad.
Two or more in four of six rather than five, and the blank came in a full ninety against Reading. A Wimbledon side defending for long spells should give him the volume, but the floor is not as firm as Robinson’s.
Fulham’s Attacking Table Barely Exists
Raul Jimenez and Harry Wilson took 81 shots between them last season and both have left, along with Sasa Lukic and Issa Diop. Tom Cairney is out until 20 October. That leaves two usable rows in the goals table – Joshua King on two and Kevin on one. Nothing on this page is built on a Fulham forward.
- 1Over 1.5 Goals14 of Fulham’s last 20, 14 of Wimbledon’s
- 2No Both Teams to Score10 of Fulham’s last 20, 11 of Wimbledon’s
- 3A. Robinson 2+ Tackles2 or more in 5 of his last 6
- 4M. Hippolyte to be CardedCarded in 4 of his last 6
Over 1.5 Goals
Wimbledon conceded 39 goals across the twenty at 1.95 a game, and two a game away from home.
Fulham scored 1.55 a game at Craven Cottage against 0.67 on the road, so the venue does most of the work here rather than the attack.
No Both Teams to Score
Wimbledon failed to score in nine of twenty and managed 0.78 a game away, with 1.90 big chances created.
Fulham kept four clean sheets and are two divisions above. This is the leg the gap in class supports most directly.
A. Robinson 2+ Tackles
Three, 3, 2, 3, 4 and 0 in his last six, at 2.81 per 90 across 1,153 minutes.
The blank was a nine-minute appearance. Wimbledon enter the final third 64.20 times a game, so the work will be there.
M. Hippolyte to be Carded
Six yellows in 1,093 minutes at 0.49 per 90, the highest rate in either squad.
Backhouse books 4.63 a game against two sides averaging 3.30 between them. The referee is doing more for this leg than the player is.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Fulham are Premier League figures, and Wimbledon are in League One.
Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon Key Stats and Insights
- 4.63 cards a game for Anthony Backhouse across 54 Championship matches in his last three seasons, against a published career figure of 2.71 — a gap of 1.92, the largest correction in our card tips data.
- 8 blanks in 20 for Fulham and nine for Wimbledon, the two highest failed-to-score counts on any page this round.
- 1.35 own cards a game for Wimbledon, the lowest figure in our records, alongside 12.25 fouls — they foul often and are booked rarely.
- 81 shots left Craven Cottage this summer with Raúl Jiménez and Harry Wilson, on top of Saša Lukić and Issa Diop.
- 64.20 final third entries a game for Wimbledon against Fulham’s 50.20, with 25.35 throw-ins a match.
- 39 goals conceded in 20 for Wimbledon, at two a game away from home.
- 0.67 goals a game for Fulham away from home against 1.55 at Craven Cottage — the widest home-away split in the fixture.
Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon Bet Builder Tips
Over 1.5 Goals — 14 of Fulham’s Last 20, 14 of Wimbledon’s
Wimbledon conceded 39 goals across their twenty at 1.95 a game and two a game away from home. Three clean sheets in the whole sample. On the defensive record alone this is the most straightforward leg on the page.
Fulham do most of their scoring at home — 1.55 a game at Craven Cottage against 0.67 on the road — so the venue is working for it. They also take 13.50 shots a match to Wimbledon’s 10.90 and hold 52.4% of the ball.
What beats it is Fulham’s forward line, or the absence of one. Jiménez and Wilson took 81 shots between them last season and both have left, with Cairney out until October. Of the players remaining in our goals table, Joshua King has two and Kevin has one. A 1-0 is very much live and this leg needs a second.
No Both Teams to Score — 10 of Fulham’s Last 20, 11 of Wimbledon’s
Wimbledon failed to score in nine of twenty and managed 0.78 a game away from home with 1.90 big chances created. Fulham kept four clean sheets and are two divisions above them.
That is the leg the gap in class supports most directly, and it is the one where the League One figures matter least — a side scoring 0.78 on the road in League One is not going to score more at Craven Cottage.
The weakness is Fulham’s own record. Eight blanks in twenty is the higher of the two counts on this page, and four clean sheets from twenty is not a defence that shuts sides out regularly. If Wimbledon get one, this fails whatever Fulham do at the other end.
A. Robinson 2+ Tackles — 2 or More in 5 of His Last 6
Three, three, two, three, four and nought in his last six, at 2.81 per 90 across 1,153 minutes. The single blank was a nine-minute appearance against Aston Villa, so across full matches the floor is two.
Wimbledon enter the final third 64.20 times a game — more than Fulham manage themselves — and put in 5.80 accurate crosses. That is a side that attacks directly down the flanks, which is where a left-back’s tackle count comes from. Our tackles and fouls prop bets page sets out why the opposition’s shape matters more than the player’s average.
The risk is rotation rather than form. This is a second-round cup tie against League One opposition and Robinson is a first-choice Premier League full-back. If he starts, the leg is strong; if he does not, it is dead before kick-off.
M. Hippolyte to be Carded — Carded in 4 of His Last 6
Six yellows in 1,093 minutes at 0.49 per 90, the highest card rate in either squad, with a run of 1, 1, 0, 1, 1 and 0.
Backhouse is doing more for this leg than the player is. He books 4.63 a game across 54 Championship matches, against the 3.30 Fulham and Wimbledon average between them — the widest gap between an official and two sides we have measured this round. His career figure of 2.71 is dragged down by six National League seasons recorded as zero.
The counter is Wimbledon’s discipline. They commit 12.25 fouls a game, more than Fulham, but take only 1.35 cards themselves — the lowest own-card figure in our records. A side that fouls without being booked is exactly the sort this leg fails against, and it is why the referee matters more than usual here.
How the Four Fit Together
Two team legs and two prop bets. Over 1.5 goals and no both teams to score sit together comfortably — a 2-0 or 3-0 satisfies both, and that is the likeliest shape of the evening. They are not nested, but they do point at the same outcome.
The two prop bets are independent of the scoreline and of each other. Robinson needs Wimbledon attacking; Hippolyte needs the game to be scrappy. Our bet builder tips page explains why we prefer legs that do not all fail together.
The one most likely to let it down is over 1.5 goals, and it is the Fulham end — a forward line that lost 81 shots this summer.
Fulham vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction
We are predicting 2-0 to Fulham. Our model gives them 71%, the draw 18% and Wimbledon 11%, from expected goals of 2.20 and 0.70.
Those figures carry a large adjustment. Run on the records alone the model has this much closer — Fulham scored 1.15 a game across the twenty and Wimbledon 1.10, and Fulham’s away record of six goals in nine drags them down further. That is a Premier League side’s figures against a League One side’s, and neither applies directly to a tie between them.
No price was available when this was written. If the market disagrees with our 71% by more than about ten points, take the market. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Carabao Cup and Betting Tips
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.