Our Preston vs Blackburn tips come from the one fixture this weekend where our model and the market disagree on the result, and we have four selections from 6/5 to 3/1.
Preston have lost 5 of their last 6 and concede 2.00 goals a game at Deepdale. The market still makes them favourites.
Preston North End vs Blackburn Rovers
Preston North End
- L1-3Bristol City1 Sep
- L0-1at Charlton Athletic29 Aug
- L1-3Wolverhampton22 Aug
- L1-2at Bolton Wanderers15 Aug
- L1-3Southampton2 May
- W3-2at Sheffield United25 Apr
Blackburn Rovers
- D1-1at Middlesbrough30 Aug
- L0-2Watford23 Aug
- W2-1at Norwich City16 Aug
- D1-1Millwall9 Aug
- L0-2at Coventry City3 May
- W2-0Hull City26 Apr
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Rovers to Win | 3/1 | 41% | 25% | +16 |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 6/5 | 54% | 45% | +9 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 11/10 | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Both Teams to Score | 8/11 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | Evens | 46% | 50% | -4 |
| Preston North End to Win | 7/5 | 34% | 42% | -8 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Preston vs Blackburn Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Blackburn. The market makes Preston 39.9%, the draw 28.8% and Blackburn 31.3%. Our model gives Preston 34%, the draw 26% and Blackburn 41%.
That is the only result this weekend where we disagree with the market by more than 5 points, and it comes almost entirely from one figure: Preston have conceded 20 goals in 10 home matches, at 2.00 a game. No other side in our Championship data concedes more at home.
Their last 5 read 1-3, 0-1, 1-3, 1-2 and 1-3 — five defeats, and four of them by two goals or more. They have scored in 8 of their last 10 and conceded in 9.
Blackburn are not good either. They score 1.00 a game across their 20 and 0.78 at Ewood Park, and they have won 3 of their last 10. But they concede 1.36 away, and against a home defence leaking 2.00 a game that is enough.
The most likely single scoreline on our model is 1-1 at 12%, which is worth knowing before backing either side.
More Championship Tips
- Championship best bets for every fixture this round
- Value bets across all three divisions
- Both teams to score tips this weekend
- Players to be booked across the round
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.