Porto vs Man City Stats, Predictions and Betting Tips

The biggest fixture of the round, and we have no tips on it.

Not one market clears the bar we apply, and the honest thing is to publish the numbers and say so rather than manufacture something.

Everything we priced is below, including the markets we rejected and why.

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Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree

Every row here is untipped, which is unusual and worth explaining. A market makes our list when our figure is 55% or better and at least matches the fair price once the bookmaker’s cut is removed, at odds of 4/6 or longer, with a gap to the market of no more than 20 points.

Porto vs Manchester City fails that at every line. The short prices are ones we agree with; the longer ones are markets where the price is better than our figure; and the corners line is 29 points clear of the market, which is a warning rather than an opportunity.

The closest we come is under 4.5 cards. Szymon Marciniak has been appointed and books 3.69 a game in this competition, which puts the under at 66% against a fair 58%. It fails on price alone – 8/13 is below the 4/6 floor we require.

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Potential Bet Builder Legs

These are not tips. Every row is priced too short to back on its own – at 1/4 or 2/5 you are risking a lot to win a little, and a 100% record across six matches is not a guarantee of a seventh. They are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. None of them is in our record, because we are not recommending them.

One row only, and that is the fixture rather than the filter. Bet365 have priced fewer players here than on any other tie this week – 37 of the 84 in our tables carry odds at all. Marc Guehi has been fouled in all 6 of his last 6 across 1,665 minutes, at 1/4 against a market implying 80%.

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Porto vs Man City Prediction

We are predicting 0-2 to Manchester City, and that is the market’s view rather than ours.

Porto have won all 6 of their last 6 and conceded 5 goals in 11 home matches. Manchester City have won 8 of their last 10 league games with 23 goals. The gap in the records is smaller than the gap in the squads, which is exactly what a 20-match model cannot see.

This is the fixture that shows what our model is for and what it is not. It counts what has happened. It cannot tell that Manchester City’s bench is worth more than Porto’s first XI, and in a tie where one side’s record was built against Arouca and Tondela, counting is not enough.

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Today’s Bet Builder Tips and Stats Based Predictions

• Champions League predictions for every tie in this round
• Value bets across every competition we cover