Porto vs Man City
Porto
- W2-1Moreirense04 Sep
- W3-0at Académico Viseu FC29 Aug
- W2-0FC Arouca23 Aug
- W2-0at Rio Ave15 Aug
- W2-0FC Alverca09 Aug
- W1-0Santa Clara16 May
Man City
- W1-0Coventry City05 Sep
- W4-1at Crystal Palace28 Aug
- W2-1Bournemouth23 Aug
- L1-2Aston Villa24 May
- D1-1at Bournemouth19 May
- W3-0Crystal Palace13 May
The biggest fixture of the round, and we have no tips on it.
Not one market clears the bar we apply, and the honest thing is to publish the numbers and say so rather than manufacture something.
Everything we priced is below, including the markets we rejected and why.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 Corners | 5/6 | 84% | 55% | +29 | — |
| Under 4.5 Cards | 8/13 | 66% | 62% | +4 | — |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 1/2 | 69% | 67% | +2 | — |
| Both Teams to Score | 2/3 | 55% | 60% | -5 | — |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2/3 | 53% | 60% | -7 | — |
| Over 4.5 Cards | 6/5 | 34% | 45% | -11 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every row here is untipped, which is unusual and worth explaining. A market makes our list when our figure is 55% or better and at least matches the fair price once the bookmaker’s cut is removed, at odds of 4/6 or longer, with a gap to the market of no more than 20 points.
Porto vs Manchester City fails that at every line. The short prices are ones we agree with; the longer ones are markets where the price is better than our figure; and the corners line is 29 points clear of the market, which is a warning rather than an opportunity.
The closest we come is under 4.5 cards. Szymon Marciniak has been appointed and books 3.69 a game in this competition, which puts the under at 66% against a fair 58%. It fails on price alone – 8/13 is below the 4/6 floor we require.
Porto vs Man City Prediction
We are predicting 0-2 to Manchester City, and that is the market’s view rather than ours.
Porto have won all 6 of their last 6 and conceded 5 goals in 11 home matches. Manchester City have won 8 of their last 10 league games with 23 goals. The gap in the records is smaller than the gap in the squads, which is exactly what a 20-match model cannot see.
This is the fixture that shows what our model is for and what it is not. It counts what has happened. It cannot tell that Manchester City’s bench is worth more than Porto’s first XI, and in a tie where one side’s record was built against Arouca and Tondela, counting is not enough.
Today’s Bet Builder Tips and Stats Based Predictions
Tomorrow
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.