Fenerbahce vs Roma betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
The closest tie of Thursday’s card at 28.8% Fenerbahce and 44.1% Roma. Jesus Gil Manzano books 5.16 yellows a game, the highest rate of the six referees appointed to this round.
Fenerbahce vs Roma
Fenerbahce
- L1-2Beşiktaş05 Sep
- W2-0at Samsunspor30 Aug
- W2-1at Olympique Lyonnais26 Aug
- W4-2Konyaspor22 Aug
- D1-1Olympique Lyonnais18 Aug
- L1-2at Gençlerbirliği15 Aug
Roma
- W2-1Atalanta05 Sep
- W4-0at Lecce31 Aug
- W4-0Fiorentina24 Aug
- W2-0at Hellas Verona24 May
- W2-0Lazio17 May
- W3-2at Parma10 May
Fenerbahce vs Roma Betting Tips
Under 5.5 Cards — 4/6. Fenerbahce’s matches averaged 4.95 cards and Roma’s 3.45, for 4.20 between them. Jesus Gil Manzano books 5.16 a game, which lifts the fixture to 4.68.
Over 2.5 Goals — 8/11. Fenerbahce and Roma have seen 2.98 goals a game between them across their last 20, which puts three or more at about 63% against a fair 55%.
B. Cristante 1+ Fouls Drawn — 6/4. Bryan Cristante has been fouled in 3 of his last 6 for Roma, and has started all 3 of their matches this season. Our figure of 50% compares with the 40% implied by 6/4.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ederson to be Carded | 9/2 | 32% | 18% | +14 | Tipped |
| D. Malen Anytime Goalscorer | 21/20 | 62% | 49% | +13 | Tipped |
| K. Akturkoglu 2+ Fouls Drawn | 5/6 | 67% | 55% | +12 | Tipped |
| B. Cristante 1+ Fouls Drawn | 6/4 | 50% | 40% | +10 | Tipped |
| Under 5.5 Cards | 4/6 | 67% | 60% | +7 | Tipped |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 8/11 | 63% | 58% | +5 | Tipped |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced at 4/6 or longer, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than ours. Shorter prices are in the bet builder legs below.
Potential Bet Builder Legs
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rensch 1+ Fouls Drawn | 1/4 | 100% | 80% | +20 |
| M. Greenwood 3+ Shots | 4/9 | 83% | 69% | +14 |
| M. Soulé 2+ Shots | 4/11 | 83% | 73% | +10 |
| A. Brown 1+ Fouls Drawn | 4/11 | 83% | 73% | +10 |
| P. Dybala 2+ Fouls Drawn | 2/7 | 83% | 78% | +5 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are not tips. Every row is priced too short to back on its own – at 1/4 or 2/5 you are risking a lot to win a little, and a 100% record across six matches is not a guarantee of a seventh. They are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. None of them is in our record, because we are not recommending them.
Fenerbahce vs Roma Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 28.8% Fenerbahce, 27.1% the draw and 44.1% Roma – the most even tie of the round.
We do not publish a match result view on this fixture. Our model reads corners, cards and shots well and results badly, and across this competition it sits an average of 11 points from the market even after adjusting for league strength.
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18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.