20/1 Fenerbahce vs Roma Betting Tips, Bet Builder and Predictions

Andy Clark

Fenerbahce vs Roma betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.

The closest tie of Thursday’s card at 28.8% Fenerbahce and 44.1% Roma. Jesus Gil Manzano books 5.16 yellows a game, the highest rate of the six referees appointed to this round.

Champions League - Last 20 Games

Fenerbahce vs Roma Team Stats

17:45Ref Jesus Gil Manzano - 5.16 YC

Fenerbahce

  • L1-2Beşiktaş05 Sep
  • W2-0at Samsunspor30 Aug
  • W2-1at Olympique Lyonnais26 Aug
  • W4-2Konyaspor22 Aug
  • D1-1Olympique Lyonnais18 Aug
  • L1-2at Gençlerbirliği15 Aug

Roma

  • W2-1Atalanta05 Sep
  • W4-0at Lecce31 Aug
  • W4-0Fiorentina24 Aug
  • W2-0at Hellas Verona24 May
  • W2-0Lazio17 May
  • W3-2at Parma10 May

FenerbahcevRoma
LWWWDL
Recent form
WWWWWW
1.95
Goals scored per game
2.30
1.15
Goals conceded per game
1.10
55%
Both teams scored
50%
85%
Over 1.5 goals
95%
60%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
35%
Over 3.5 goals
40%

FenerbahcevRoma
15.95
Shots per game
14.65
6.35
Shots on target
5.05

FenerbahcevRoma
1.33
Expected goals for
1.83
0.82
Expected goals against
0.97
57.2
Possession %
55.15

FenerbahcevRoma
2.27
Home scored per game
2.55
1.27
Home conceded per game
0.73
1.56
Away scored per game
2.00
1.00
Away conceded per game
1.56

FenerbahcevRoma
6.95
Corners per game
5.45
3.25
First half corners
2.8

FenerbahcevRoma
12.4
Fouls per game
12.85
2.35
Own cards per game
1.55
4.95
Cards in match
3.45
1.85
First half cards
1.05
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Fenerbahce vs Roma Betting Tips

Under 5.5 Cards — 4/6. Fenerbahce’s matches averaged 4.95 cards and Roma’s 3.45, for 4.20 between them. Jesus Gil Manzano books 5.16 a game, which lifts the fixture to 4.68.

Over 2.5 Goals — 8/11. Fenerbahce and Roma have seen 2.98 goals a game between them across their last 20, which puts three or more at about 63% against a fair 55%.

B. Cristante 1+ Fouls Drawn — 6/4. Bryan Cristante has been fouled in 3 of his last 6 for Roma, and has started all 3 of their matches this season. Our figure of 50% compares with the 40% implied by 6/4.

Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model

These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.

Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.

The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.

Fenerbahce vs Roma Prediction

We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 28.8% Fenerbahce, 27.1% the draw and 44.1% Roma – the most even tie of the round.

We do not publish a match result view on this fixture. Our model reads corners, cards and shots well and results badly, and across this competition it sits an average of 11 points from the market even after adjusting for league strength.

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