Man Utd vs Man City betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
Five selections, and the shape of the fixture drives all of them. City hold 62.5% of the ball and United are 29% to win at home – so United’s defenders foul, City’s shots come, and the two full-backs get run at.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Team Stats
Manchester United
- W4-0Sabah FK10 Sep
- D2-2at Everton06 Sep
- W5-2Ipswich Town30 Aug
- L0-2at Hull City22 Aug
- W3-2Nottingham Forest17 May
- D0-0at Sunderland09 May
Manchester City
- W2-0at FC Porto08 Sep
- W1-0Coventry City05 Sep
- W4-1at Crystal Palace28 Aug
- W2-1Bournemouth23 Aug
- L1-2Aston Villa24 May
- D1-1at Bournemouth19 May
Man Utd vs Man City Betting Tips
E. Haaland 5+ Shots — 6/4. Erling Haaland has had five or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 4.12 per 90 across 1,443 minutes, starting all 4 this season.
H. Maguire 2+ Fouls Committed — 7/2. Harry Maguire has committed two or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Manchester United, at 0.85 per 90 across 1,491 minutes, starting all 3 this season.
M. Guehi 1+ Foul Committed — 5/6. Marc Guehi has committed a foul in 7 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 0.86 per 90 across 1,665 minutes, starting all 4 this season.
L. Shaw 1+ Foul Drawn — 5/6. Luke Shaw has been fouled in 7 of his last 10 for Manchester United, at 0.92 per 90 across 1,569 minutes, starting all 3 this season.
B. Mbeumo 4+ Shots — 3/1. Bryan Mbeumo has had four or more shots in 4 of his last 10 for Manchester United, at 2.42 per 90 across 1,488 minutes, starting all 4 this season.
Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haaland 5+ Shots | 6/4 | 60% | 40% | +20 |
| H. Maguire 2+ Fouls Committed | 7/2 | 40% | 22% | +18 |
| M. Guehi 1+ Foul Committed | 5/6 | 70% | 55% | +15 |
| L. Shaw 1+ Foul Drawn | 5/6 | 70% | 55% | +15 |
| B. Mbeumo 4+ Shots | 3/1 | 40% | 25% | +15 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.
The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.
Player Props Bet Finder
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Every player bet365 have priced for this match, with each player’s record over his last ten alongside the price. No tips, no selections – the numbers and the odds side by side.
What We Are Leaving Out
Every card market. No referee has been appointed, so the card lines here use a league average of 4.20 against the two sides’ own 3.63. That blends to 3.91, which is close enough to the line that we would rather wait – and this week five named officials moved five card lines in five different directions.
Both teams to score at 4/9. United are 13 of 20 and City 11 of 20, for 60% against a fair 66%. The price is ahead of us.
Man Utd vs Man City Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Manchester City. The market makes it 29% United, 25% the draw and 45% City.
City have won 4 of their last 6 and score 1.80 a game away against 1.00 conceded. United have won 3 of 6 and score 2.80 at home – the highest home figure of any side playing this weekend – but have conceded 13 in 10 there.
Our model has United at 44% against the market’s 29%, fifteen points above it. That is our figures reading a derby the way they read any home fixture, and not knowing that both sides raise their level for this one.
More Premier League Tips and Predictions
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.