Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Predictions and Betting Tips

Andy Clark

Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion bet builder tips, predictions and stats for the Carabao Cup fixture on Wednesday 28th October 2026. Get all the key player stats and our own betting tips as well as a bet builder tool to help you find the value bets.

Carabao Cup - Last 20 Games

Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Team Stats

19:30

Manchester CityvBrighton and Hove Albion
LWWLWW
Recent form
LDWWWW
2.35
Goals scored per game
2.20
1.15
Goals conceded per game
0.85
60%
Both teams scored
25%
85%
Over 1.5 goals
85%
75%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
30%
Over 3.5 goals
40%

Manchester CityvBrighton and Hove Albion
17.75
Shots per game
18.1
6.3
Shots on target
5.75

Manchester CityvBrighton and Hove Albion
2.12
Expected goals for
1.79
1.39
Expected goals against
1.06
62.25
Possession %
62.2

Manchester CityvBrighton and Hove Albion
7.65
Corners per game
6.1
4.0
First half corners
2.8

Manchester CityvBrighton and Hove Albion
10.05
Fouls per game
12.25
1.5
Own cards per game
1.6
3.4
Cards in match
3.25
0.75
First half cards
1.2
New Customer Offer · Midnite

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

New customers only. Place a £10+ bet at min odds 1/1 (2.0) within 14 days of sign-up. Get £30 in Free Bets, valid for 7 days on selected bets only. Free stake not returned with winnings. T&Cs apply. 18+ | #ad | BeGambleAware.org

Manchester City take 17.75 shots a game and hit 6.3 on target, against Brighton and Hove Albion’s 18.1 and 5.75. Manchester City commit 10.05 fouls a game to Brighton and Hove Albion’s 12.25, with 3.4 and 3.25 cards a match. Stripping the bookmaker margin out of the result makes it Manchester City 57%, the draw 22% and Brighton and Hove Albion 21%. 4 legs in this match beat the price bet365 are offering, and they are all listed below with our own percentage beside the bookmaker’s.

Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Bet Builder Tip

1Pascal Groß 2+ Foul Committed4 of his last 10, 1.15 per 90
Why this Leg

Pascal Groß has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Brighton and Hove Albion, at 1.15 per 90 across 1,726 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.

Manchester City hold 62.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 12/5.

2Erling Haaland 2+ Shot on Target7 of his last 10, 2.24 per 90
Why this Leg

Erling Haaland has had 2 or more shots on target in 7 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 2.24 per 90 across 1,486 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.

Manchester City take 17.75 shots a game and hit 6.3 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 60% implied by 4/6.

3Chema Andrés 2+ Foul Committed5 of his last 6, 2.46 per 90
Why this Leg

Chema Andrés has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 6 for Brighton and Hove Albion, at 2.46 per 90 across 366 minutes, and he averages 61 minutes a game when he plays.

Manchester City hold 62.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 83% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.

4Rúben Dias 2+ Foul Committed6 of his last 10, 1.51 per 90
Why this Leg

Rúben Dias has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 1.51 per 90 across 1,073 minutes, and he averages 83 minutes a game when he plays.

Brighton and Hove Albion hold 62.2% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.

bet365Add 4-Leg Build to Betslip

What Is the Best Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Bet Builder?

Pascal Groß 2+ Foul Committed, Erling Haaland 2+ Shot on Target, Chema Andrés 2+ Foul Committed and Rúben Dias 2+ Foul Committed, around 25/1 to 28/1 combined.

Every leg is one the player has done in most of his recent matches, and every one is a line bet365 list, so the whole thing goes on as a single bet builder.

Pascal Groß has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 ties at 1.15 per 90, and Manchester City hold 62.25% of the ball — 40% on our numbers against an implied 29%.

Erling Haaland has had 2 or more shots on target in 7 of his last 10 ties at 2.24 per 90, and Manchester City take 17.75 shots a game — 70% on our numbers against an implied 60%.

Chema Andrés has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 6 ties at 2.46 per 90, and Manchester City hold 62.25% of the ball — 83% on our numbers against an implied 55%.

Rúben Dias has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 ties at 1.51 per 90, and Brighton and Hove Albion hold 62.2% of the ball — 60% on our numbers against an implied 36%.

If that is longer than you want, the betting tips below run from 1/10 to 2/1 and any of them swaps straight in. Legs in the same match are not independent — a fouls-drawn leg and a fouls-committed leg both get easier in a scrappy game — so treat the combined price as indicative, and bet365’s own builder will differ slightly.

Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Betting Tips

Every selection below is one the stats stand up in this fixture, with the record behind it and the price beside it. To build your own bet builder from them, click Add to Betslip on each one you want — they go straight into your bet365 betslip and combine into a single bet builder there. Our own tip above is included in the list, so you can start from those legs and add to them.

  1. 01
    Ferdi Kadıoğlu 1+ Shotsbet365TBCFerdi Kadıoğlu has had a shot in 7 of his last 10 for Brighton and Hove Albion, at 1.01 per 90 across 1,337 minutes, and he averages 79 minutes a game when he plays.Brighton and Hove Albion take 18.1 shots a game and hit 5.75 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
  2. 02
    Erling Haaland 2+ Shot on TargetAdd to slip4/6Erling Haaland has had 2 or more shots on target in 7 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 2.24 per 90 across 1,486 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Manchester City take 17.75 shots a game and hit 6.3 on target. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 60% implied by 4/6.
  3. 03
    Chema Andrés 2+ Foul CommittedAdd to slip5/6Chema Andrés has committed 2 or more fouls in 5 of his last 6 for Brighton and Hove Albion, at 2.46 per 90 across 366 minutes, and he averages 61 minutes a game when he plays.Manchester City hold 62.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 83% on his own record, against the 55% implied by 5/6.
  4. 04
    Rúben Dias 2+ Foul CommittedAdd to slip7/4Rúben Dias has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 1.51 per 90 across 1,073 minutes, and he averages 83 minutes a game when he plays.Brighton and Hove Albion hold 62.2% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.
  5. 05
    Pascal Groß 2+ Foul CommittedAdd to slip12/5Pascal Groß has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Brighton and Hove Albion, at 1.15 per 90 across 1,726 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.Manchester City hold 62.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 12/5.
  6. 06
    Rayan Cherki Anytime GoalscorerAdd to slip7/4Rayan Cherki has scored in 4 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 0.45 per 90 across 1,205 minutes, and he averages 63 minutes a game when he plays.Manchester City score 2.35 a game. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.
  7. 07
    Joško Gvardiol to be CardedAdd to slip11/2Joško Gvardiol has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Manchester City, at 0.42 per 90 across 858 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.Manchester City pick up 1.5 cards a game and there are 3.4 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 15% implied by 11/2.
  8. 08
    Manchester City to WinAdd to slip13/20Manchester City come in on L W W L W W, and at home they have scored 2.55 a game and conceded 1.45 across 11 matches. They have won 14 of their last 20 overall, drawing 2.Brighton and Hove Albion average 2.20 scored and 0.85 conceded. The venue splits project 1.69 against 1.52, which puts Manchester City at about 49% to win, against 23% for the draw.
  9. 09
    Over 2.5 GoalsAdd to slip4/9Manchester City have gone past 2.5 goals in 75% of their last 20 matches and Brighton and Hove Albion in 65%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.Manchester City average 2.35 scored and 1.15 conceded, Brighton and Hove Albion 2.20 and 0.85. On the venue splits that projects 1.69 against 1.52, about 3.2 goals in the match and 66% for over 2.5.
  10. 10
    Correct Score 2-1Add to slip17/2On the venue splits this projects Manchester City 1.69 against Brighton and Hove Albion 1.52, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.5%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Manchester City, which is where the board has the match too.
New Customer Offer · StarSports

Bet £40 Get £20 in Free Bets

Claim Offer

Offer available to new customers only who sign up with Promo Code BET40GET20. Place a bet of £40 (or more) at EVS (2.0) or greater and Get 2 x £10 Free Bets. 1 x £10 Free Bet paid automatically & following £10 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0). Free Bets expire after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. 18+ | #ad | BeGambleAware.org

Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Bet Builder Leg Finder

Every priced player in this fixture, with his record over the last ten ties beside the odds, so you can build your own rather than take ours. It covers the player prop markets one at a time — shots, shots on target, fouls committed, fouls drawn, tackles, cards and anytime goalscorer — and sorts each by how often the player has hit the line rather than by price, so a short price with a strong record is easy to spot. Free, no sign-in. It is the same tool behind our daily bet builder tips.

Loading prices…

Get Free Bets from a Bookies Sign-up Offer for Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion

Use one of these bookies welcome offers below to get free bets when you bet on Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion, or any of the Carabao Cup matches this week. These are all new customer offers so if you haven’t opened a betting account with them before, you will qualify for the free bets.

Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Bet Builder FAQs

What Is the Best Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Bet Builder?

Pascal Groß 2+ Foul Committed, Erling Haaland 2+ Shot on Target, Chema Andrés 2+ Foul Committed and Rúben Dias 2+ Foul Committed, at around 25/1 to 28/1 combined with bet365.

Can You Put Odds-on Legs in a Bet Builder?

Yes, and it is often the right thing to do. Our tracked best bets have to be 4/6 or longer, but a short leg we make a strong chance is a sound anchor. Erling Haaland 2+ Shot on Target, which we make 70% against 60% implied, qualifies here — the current price is in the table above.

Which Player Takes the Most Shots in Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Erling Haaland of Manchester City. He has had 2 or more shots in 10 of his last 10 ties, at 4.54 per 90 across 1,486 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays. Manchester City take 17.75 shots a game and hit 6.3 on target. bet365 list Erling Haaland 2+ Shots, with the current price in the leg finder below.

Who Is Most Likely to Have a Shot on Target in Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion. He has had a shot on target in 8 of his last 10 ties, at 1.57 per 90 across 919 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays. Brighton and Hove Albion take 18.1 shots a game and hit 5.75 on target. bet365 list Jack Hinshelwood 1+ Shot on Target, with the current price in the leg finder below.

Which Player Commits the Most Fouls in Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Nico O’Reilly of Manchester City. He has committed a foul in 8 of his last 10 ties, at 1.88 per 90 across 813 minutes, and he averages 63 minutes a game when he plays. Brighton and Hove Albion hold 62.2% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. bet365 list Nico O’Reilly 1+ Foul Committed, with the current price in the leg finder below.

Which Player Makes the Most Tackles in Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Bernardo Silva of Manchester City. He has made a tackle in 7 of his last 9 ties, at 3.04 per 90 across 652 minutes, and he averages 72 minutes a game when he plays. Brighton and Hove Albion hold 62.2% of the ball, and Manchester City commit 10.05 fouls a game. bet365 have not listed Bernardo Silva 1+ Tackles yet, so there is no price to measure the record against.

Which Player Is Fouled the Most in Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Elliot Anderson of Manchester City. He has been fouled 3 times or more in 6 of his last 10 ties, at 3.31 per 90 across 816 minutes, and he averages 74 minutes a game when he plays. Brighton and Hove Albion commit 12.25 fouls a game. There is no price up for Elliot Anderson 3+ Fouls Drawn at bet365 yet – one to watch when the market opens.

What Is the Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion Prediction?

Manchester City are 57% to win, the draw 22% and Brighton and Hove Albion 21% once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. Over 2.5 Goals is the one team market our numbers support.

What Time Is Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Wednesday 28th October 2026, 19:30 UK time.

More Carabao Cup Tips and Predictions

 

Claim a Free Bet Before Kick-off

 

Competition

Today

19:45Leicester City vs Wigan AthleticLeague One9 tips19:45Luton Town vs Doncaster RoversLeague One10 tips19:45Milton Keynes Dons vs BromleyLeague One12 tips19:45Oxford United vs Stockport CountyLeague One9 tips19:45Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge UnitedLeague One11 tips19:45Barnet vs York CityLeague Two13 tips19:45Bradford City vs Peterborough UnitedCarabao Cup11 tips20:00Fleetwood Town vs ArsenalCarabao Cup12 tips

Tomorrow

19:30Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove AlbionCarabao Cup14 tips19:45Bournemouth vs Aston VillaCarabao Cup18 tips19:45Fulham vs Crystal PalaceCarabao Cup15 tips19:45Sunderland vs BrentfordCarabao Cup17 tips20:00Liverpool vs ChelseaCarabao Cup18 tips

Thu 29 Oct

19:45Everton vs Newcastle UnitedCarabao Cup18 tips

Thatsagoal Features

More features