Our stats model has produced a 40/1 Saturday accumulator — a 10-fold across Europe’s top leagues, with £10 returning £452.55 if it lands.
As with all our tips, every selection carries two numbers: our model’s probability and the one implied by the market. That comparison is the whole method, so you can see exactly where we think there’s value. Here’s the model’s Saturday 10-fold in full.
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The Model’s Saturday 10-Fold (40/1)
- 1Real Madrid to WinReal Madrid v Rayo Vallecano85% on the market1/9
- 2Chelsea to WinChelsea v Hull City77% on the market2/9
- 3Borussia Dortmund to WinBorussia Dortmund v Paderborn76% on the market2/9
- 4Athletic Club to WinAthletic Club v Elche68% on the market2/5
- 5Liverpool to WinLiverpool v Fulham65% on the market9/20
- 6Arsenal to WinSunderland v Arsenal64% on the market12/25
- 7SC Freiburg to WinSC Freiburg v Borussia M’gladbach57% on the market4/6
- 8Southampton to WinSouthampton v Bristol City57% on the market13/20
- 9Bayer Leverkusen to WinFC Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen53% on the market4/5
- 10Middlesbrough to WinMiddlesbrough v Norwich City51% on the market5/6
Every leg is drawn from our prediction model and explained in full on the match page. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
A 10-fold accumulator requires all 10 selections to win — a genuine long shot. Our model’s figures are our opinion, not a guarantee. Odds subject to change. 18+. GambleAware.org.
How Our Stats Model Works
Every selection here comes from our own probability model rather than opinion. For each match we calculate our own chance of the outcome — using both sides’ recent form and underlying numbers — and compare it directly to the probability implied by the bookmaker’s price. Where our figure sits above the market’s, we see value.
Take the anchor legs: our model makes Real Madrid 85% to beat Rayo Vallecano and Chelsea 77% at home to Hull, both comfortably clear of the field. Further down, the value picks are finer — Middlesbrough at 51% and Bayer Leverkusen at 53% are closer calls where our number edges the market. Stacking ten selections into one bet is what turns those individual edges into a 40/1 return — but it’s also what makes it a long shot, because every single leg has to land.
The Value Picks Explained
- Real Madrid (85%) and Chelsea (77%) are the strongest singles on the card — short prices, but the model rates them even shorter than the market.
- Liverpool (65%) at home to a leaky Fulham and Arsenal (64%) at Sunderland are mid-priced legs where the model leans towards the favourites.
- Southampton (57%) and Middlesbrough (51%) bring in the Championship, where our model finds the home sides marginally underrated.
Back It With a Free Bet from bet365
Need a bet365 account? You will get £30 in free bets if you sign-up and bet £10 on today’s football. For example, bet £10 on this accumulator and if it wins you collect around £450 cash. Win or lose you get £30 in free bets added to your account.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the stats model’s Saturday accumulator? It’s a 40/1 10-fold across Europe’s top leagues, with £10 returning £452.55 if all ten selections win. Each leg shows our model’s probability alongside the market’s.
How does your accumulator model work? We calculate our own probability for each match from form and underlying numbers, then compare it to the bookmaker’s implied probability, selecting outcomes where our figure sits above the market’s.
How much does the 40/1 accumulator return? A winning £10 stake returns £452.55. As a 10-fold, all ten selections must win — it’s a genuine long shot, so treat the return as the upside.
Is the accumulator free? Yes — all our accumulator tips are completely free.
More tips: Accumulator tips · Premier League tips · Football free bets · Bet builder tips
Tips are the opinion of our model and are not guarantees. Odds and selections were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. GambleAware.org · GamCare.org.uk. #Ad
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.