Man City vs Bournemouth Bet Builder Tips, Predictions and Player Stats

Our Man City vs Bournemouth bet builder tips lead with Erling Haaland to have a shot on target. He has hit the target in all six of his last six matches and taken two or more shots in every one of them, at 3.72 shots per 90 minutes.

Bournemouth arrive having lost one match in their last twenty — eight wins, eleven draws and a single defeat — and having conceded 0.70 goals a game away from home.

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Man City vs Bournemouth Key Stats

• 1 defeat in 20 for Bournemouth, alongside eight wins and eleven draws
• 1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1 — Haaland’s shots on target in his last six matches
• 2, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4 — Haaland’s shots across the same six matches
• 0.70 goals conceded away by Bournemouth, better than their home record of 1.40
• 14.50 player duels a game for Elliot Anderson, the highest figure of any player in our data
• 19 departures across the two squads this summer, including Rodri, Bernardo Silva and John Stones
• 3.45 yellow cards a game for referee Jarred Gillett, the highest of the seven Premier League officials we have covered

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Why Is Haaland in the Bet Builder for Shots on Target Rather Than Shots?

Because both records are identical and shots on target pays considerably more. Haaland has taken two or more shots in all six of his last six and hit the target in all six as well, so the two lines carry the same evidence at very different prices.

A 2+ shots leg on Haaland prices around 1/8. In a four-fold that multiplies the return by barely more than one while adding a fourth way to lose. Shots on target does the same job at a price worth having.

The two cannot both go in anyway. Bookmakers group shots and shots on target together, and a bet builder will reject two selections from one player within a market group.

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Which Player Is Worth Backing in Man City vs Bournemouth?

Erling Haaland, and the case is unusually clear. He has hit the target in all six of his last six matches, taken two or more shots in all six, and scored in five of them. No other player in this fixture clears a line more than five times in six.

Elliot Anderson is the less obvious one. The £135m signing from Nottingham Forest wins 14.50 player duels a game — the highest figure of any player in our data, ahead of Mamadou Sangaré on 12.62 — and makes 2.82 tackles with two or more in five of his last six.

Selection	Per 90	Last six	Cleared
Haaland 1+ shot on target	1.41	1, 4, 1, 2, 1, 1	6 of 6
Haaland 2+ shots	3.72	2, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4	6 of 6
Haaland anytime scorer	0.51	1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0	5 of 6
Anderson 2+ tackles	2.82	3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3	5 of 6
Truffert 2+ tackles	2.95	7, 4, 2, 0, 3, 2	5 of 6
Cherki 2+ shots	3.07	1, 1, 0, 3, 4, 8	2 of 6

Rayan Cherki is the one to avoid. His 3.07 shots per 90 is City’s second-best rate and an eight-shot game against Leeds carries most of it. He has cleared two shots in two of his last six.

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Why Have Bournemouth Only Lost One Game in Twenty?

Because they draw more than any side we have covered. Their record reads eight wins, eleven draws and one defeat, and those eleven draws are the highest number in our data across every fixture this season — more even than Leeds, who drew nine of twenty.

Their away form is the stranger part. Bournemouth concede 0.70 goals a game on the road against 1.40 at home, and score 1.30 away against 1.80 at the Vitality. Very few sides are better travelling than at home.

Between them, Manchester City and Bournemouth have lost three of their last forty matches. City’s record is ten wins, eight draws and two defeats.

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What Is the Prediction for Man City vs Bournemouth?

The market has Manchester City at 65% once the bookmaker’s margin is removed, and we are publishing that figure rather than our own. Our model returns 35%, the draw 34% and Bournemouth 31% — a thirty-point gap on the favourite, and we do not believe our own number.

The reason is worth stating. Bournemouth have conceded 0.70 goals a game away across ten matches, and feeding a defence that strong into the model drops Manchester City to 1.04 expected goals. City score 2.00 a game at the Etihad. The output is not credible, and a model that produces an incredible number should be said so rather than dressed up.

Our model has been accurate where both sides are unremarkable. It gave Everton against Crystal Palace 44% against a market of 44%, and Rangers against Jablonec 62% against 68%. It breaks when one side carries an extreme record — a promoted club, or here a team with one defeat in twenty.

The goals markets do not have that problem. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 85% of City’s last twenty and 80% of Bournemouth’s, and that is the fourth leg of our build.

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Man City vs Bournemouth Team News

Nineteen players have left the two clubs this summer and six of them appeared in our tables.

Manchester City lost eleven. Rodri’s move to Barcelona removes the man who led their tackles at 2.58 per 90, Bernardo Silva has gone to Real Madrid having topped their card list at 0.33, and Tijjani Reijnders has joined Al-Qadsiah. John Stones, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Aké have all left too.

Jérémy Doku is out with a calf injury, and he led the entire fixture for fouls drawn at 3.85 per 90 — the strongest number in that market. Savinho is unavailable with illness and has been linked with Tottenham.

Omar Marmoush is the name to watch. He is also linked with a move to Tottenham and leads Manchester City for shots at 3.77 per 90, goals at 0.54 and cards at 0.54. If he plays, three sections of this page change.

Bournemouth are without Eli Junior Kroupi, who led their goalscoring at 0.61 per 90, and Ryan Christie through suspension. Álex Jiménez has gone to Fiorentina on loan having led the fixture for tackles at 3.14 per 90.

Antoine Semenyo faces his former club. He joined Manchester City from Bournemouth in January 2026 and appears in the data under both badges — his City figures of 0.45 goals per 90 across 1,402 minutes are the ones that matter.

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Man City vs Bournemouth Card Stats and Referee

Jarred Gillett books 3.45 players a game, the highest of the seven Premier League officials we have covered, whose figures range from 2.57 to 3.45. City’s matches produce 4.30 cards across both sides and Bournemouth’s 3.80.

On the two teams’ records over 3.5 cards reads 61%; on the referee’s it reads 48%. Both point above the line without either being emphatic.

The individual card table is empty, though. With Bernardo Silva gone, Marmoush doubtful and Jiménez departed, Rúben Dias leads on 0.30 cards per 90 from a single booking in six matches and Adam Smith on 0.32. Neither is worth a price, and Gillett’s red card rate of 0.07 rules that market out too.

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Man City vs Bournemouth Kick-Off Time and TV Channel

Manchester City vs Bournemouth kicks off at 14:00 BST on Sunday 23 August 2026 at the Etihad Stadium. Jarred Gillett referees. SKY SPORTS.

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Why Do We Publish the Last Six Matches Rather Than Only an Average?

Because an average tells you the middle of a player’s range, while the sequence tells you whether he actually clears the line the bookmaker has set. Those are different questions, and the second is the one being priced when you place the bet.

Rayan Cherki is the example on this page. His 3.07 shots per 90 is a real number and it comes from a run of 1, 1, 0, 3, 4 and 8 — a single afternoon against Leeds doing most of the work. Haaland’s 3.72 has never dropped below two.

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More Football Tips and Guides

The Haaland selection sits alongside the rest of our shots on target tips, and the Anderson and Truffert picks belong with our tackles and fouls tips.

For the full build and the same treatment across every match on the card, see our bet builder tips and the Premier League tips page.

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