Club Brugge vs Aston Villa
Club Brugge
- W1-0at Lommel SK04 Sep
- L1-2at KAA Gent30 Aug
- W1-0Cercle Brugge23 Aug
- W3-0at Oud-Heverlee Leuven15 Aug
- W3-0KV Kortrijk07 Aug
- W5-0KAA Gent24 May
Aston Villa
- D0-0at Hull City05 Sep
- L0-1Arsenal31 Aug
- L1-2at Paris Saint-Germain12 Aug
- W2-1at Manchester City24 May
- W3-0at SC Freiburg20 May
- W4-2Liverpool15 May
The most even fixture on Tuesday’s card at 35.3% Club Brugge and 38.8% Aston Villa, and the one where our figures and the market disagree most on corners.
Club Brugge have won 5 of their last 6 and score 3.56 goals a game at home. Villa have 7 European fixtures in their last 20, so both sides’ records need reading with the standard they came from in mind.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Buendia 2+ Fouls Drawn | Evens | 67% | 50% | +17 | Tipped |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 5/6 | 70% | 55% | +15 | Tipped |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2/3 | 64% | 60% | +4 | Tipped |
| Both Teams to Score | 7/10 | 60% | 59% | +1 | — |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 8/11 | 52% | 58% | -6 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
The Edge column compares against the raw price. A tip has to beat the fair price once the bookmaker’s cut is removed, which is why a selection can show a small edge here and still be one we are backing.
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Bet Builder
Three legs at 5/6, Evens and 2/3, and they fail for different reasons – the corners leg needs an open match, Buendia needs Villa on the ball, and the goals leg needs Club Brugge to score as they have in 16 of their last 20.
Over 9.5 corners is the anchor. 11.40 a game between the sides against a line of 9.5, and about 70% against a fair 50%.
Emiliano Buendia two or more fouls drawn at Evens. Fouled twice or more in 4 of his last 6, and started all 4 of Villa’s matches this season.
Over 2.5 goals at 2/3. The two sides have seen 3.28 a game between them.
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa Prediction
We are predicting 2-2. The market makes it 35.3% Club Brugge, 25.9% the draw and 38.8% Aston Villa – the closest of the six ties on Tuesday.
Club Brugge score 3.56 goals a game at home and concede 0.67. Villa have kept 7 clean sheets in 20 and their expected goals against is 1.15. The two records point in opposite directions, which is why our figure sits close to the price on the result and why the goals and corners markets are where we have something to say.
We do not publish a match result view on this fixture. Our model reads corners, shots and fouls well and results badly, and across this Champions League round it sits an average of 11 points from the market even after adjusting for league strength.
Amadou Onana is out with a cruciate ligament injury and João Gomes with a calf problem, which removes two of Villa’s midfield. Carlos Forbs is suspended for Club Brugge.
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Tomorrow
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.