Como vs RB Leipzig betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
Serdar Gozubuyuk books 3.54 yellows a game, the lowest of the six referees appointed to this round. That is what makes the card line the widest gap on this fixture.
Como vs RB Leipzig
Como
- W4-1at Genoa04 Sep
- W2-1at Napoli30 Aug
- D1-1at Udinese22 Aug
- W4-1at Cremonese24 May
- W1-0Parma17 May
- W1-0at Hellas Verona10 May
RB Leipzig
- L1-3at SV Werder Bremen05 Sep
- W3-0Borussia M’gladbach29 Aug
- W6-0at Eintracht Trier22 Aug
- L1-4at SC Freiburg16 May
- W2-1FC St. Pauli09 May
- L1-4at Bayer 04 Leverkusen02 May
Como vs RB Leipzig Betting Tips
Under 3.5 Cards — 6/5. Como’s matches averaged 3.45 cards and RB Leipzig’s 3.05, for 3.25 between them – the lowest pairing of Thursday’s card. Serdar Gozubuyuk books 3.54 a game, the lowest of the six officials appointed.
D. Raum 1+ Shots — 11/10. David Raum has had a shot in 4 of his last 6 for RB Leipzig, and has started all 3 of their matches this season. Our figure of 67% compares with the 48% implied by 11/10.
J. Ramon 1+ Fouls Drawn — 13/8. Jesus Ramon has been fouled in 3 of his last 6 for Como, starting all 3 this season. Our figure of 50% compares with the 38% implied by 13/8.
C. Lukeba 1+ Fouls Drawn — 4/5. Castello Lukeba has been fouled in 4 of his last 6 for RB Leipzig across both his starts this season. Our figure of 67% compares with the 56% implied by 4/5.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Raum 1+ Shots | 11/10 | 67% | 48% | +19 | Tipped |
| J. Ramon 1+ Fouls Drawn | 13/8 | 50% | 38% | +12 | Tipped |
| C. Lukeba 1+ Fouls Drawn | 4/5 | 67% | 56% | +11 | Tipped |
| B. Gruda 2+ Shots | 4/5 | 67% | 56% | +11 | Tipped |
| Under 3.5 Cards | 6/5 | 56% | 45% | +11 | Tipped |
| B. Gruda Anytime Goalscorer | 7/2 | 34% | 22% | +12 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced at 4/6 or longer, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than ours. Shorter prices are in the bet builder legs below.
Potential Bet Builder Legs
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ramón 1+ Shots | 3/10 | 100% | 77% | +23 |
| A. Nusa 1+ Shots | 1/8 | 100% | 89% | +11 |
| M. Baturina 1+ Fouls Drawn | 1/9 | 100% | 90% | +10 |
| E. Banzuzi 1+ Fouls Drawn | 4/11 | 83% | 73% | +10 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are not tips. Every row is priced too short to back on its own – at 1/4 or 2/5 you are risking a lot to win a little, and a 100% record across six matches is not a guarantee of a seventh. They are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. None of them is in our record, because we are not recommending them.
Como vs RB Leipzig Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to RB Leipzig. The market makes it 51.9% Como, 23.8% the draw and 24.4% Leipzig – closer than the sides’ records suggest.
We do not publish a match result view on this fixture. Our model reads corners, cards and shots well and results badly, and across this competition it sits an average of 11 points from the market even after adjusting for league strength.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.