Championship Mega Acca: Our 200/1 Nine-Fold for Saturday 17th October

Andy Clark

Championship Mega Acca

9-Fold218.9218.95
  1. 1Middlesbrough to WinMiddlesbrough v Cardiff City11/20
  2. 2Millwall to WinMillwall v Lincoln City4/6
  3. 3Birmingham City to WinBirmingham City v Queens Park Rangers1/1
  4. 4Bristol City to WinBristol City v Sheffield United21/20
  5. 5Derby County to WinDerby County v Stoke City13/8
  6. 6Norwich City to WinNorwich City v Portsmouth4/6
  7. 7Southampton to WinSouthampton v Bolton Wanderers1/2
  8. 8West Bromwich Albion to WinWest Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers10/11
  9. 9Wrexham to WinWrexham v Preston North End13/20
£10 returns £2,189.50
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Every leg is drawn from our prediction model and explained in full on the match page. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.

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Our Championship mega acca for Saturday takes the single most likely result in nine of the day’s fixtures and rolls them into one nine-fold that turns £10 into about £2,189.50 if every favourite holds.

It is a big-returns long shot rather than a value play – and we will be straight about why below – but if you want one slip to follow across the Championship afternoon, here are the nine legs, with the form and our model’s projection behind each.

Disclosure: Thatsagoal is an affiliate partner of the bookmakers featured on this page and may earn a commission if you open an account through our links. This does not affect our tips. Tips are our opinion and not guaranteed. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.

The Acca at a Glance

TimeMatchSelectionbet365 priceOur model
11:30Middlesbrough v Cardiff CityMiddlesbrough11/2053%
11:30Millwall v Lincoln CityMillwall4/649%
14:00Birmingham City v QPRBirmingham CityEvens46%
14:00Bristol City v Sheffield UnitedBristol City21/2042%
14:00Derby County v Stoke CityDerby County13/840%
14:00Norwich City v PortsmouthNorwich City4/653%
14:00Southampton v Bolton WanderersSouthampton1/262%
14:00West Brom v Blackburn RoversWest Brom10/1148%
14:00Wrexham v Preston North EndWrexham13/2054%

Nine legs, around 218/1 combined — a £10 stake returns about £2,189.50. Odds are correct at the time of writing and move through the day; a nine-leg accumulator can attract a boost or a cap, so always check the final price in your betslip.

Back it at bet365 » 18+. New customers can claim Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets. Min deposit and further terms apply. GambleAware.org.

How We Built This Acca – and a Word on the Odds

Be clear on what this is: it takes the single likeliest result in each game, almost always the home favourite, and stacks nine of them. That is the opposite of how we pick everywhere else on the site, where we bet on edge – our probability against the price. Pick on pure likelihood instead, and you end up backing the favourites, which is exactly where a bookmaker loads most of its margin. The upshot is that eight of these nine legs are actually priced a shade shorter than our model rates them; only Derby County is marginally in our favour. So this is not a value bet, and we are not claiming the market has these wrong.

It is also one bet, not nine. Every leg is a home win, so the whole slip rises and falls together – a single afternoon that goes against the favourites takes all nine down at once. Treat it as a small-stakes bit of fun with a big number attached, not a banker.

The Nine Legs

11:30 Middlesbrough v Cardiff City — Middlesbrough (11/20)

Middlesbrough come in on W-W-D-D-W-W and are strong at home, scoring 1.90 a game and conceding 1.10 across 10 matches. They have won eight of their last 20 overall, drawing eight. Cardiff City average 1.85 scored and 1.30 conceded, and the venue splits project 1.71 against 1.39 – about 53% for the home win, with the draw 24%.

11:30 Millwall v Lincoln City — Millwall (4/6)

Millwall have won eight of their last 20, drawing six, and at home they have scored 1.56 a game and conceded 1.11 across nine matches. Lincoln City average 1.50 scored and 1.35 conceded. The projection is 1.41 against 1.21, which puts Millwall at about 49% to win, with the draw at 26%.

14:00 Birmingham City v QPR — Birmingham City (Evens)

Birmingham City have won eight of their last 20, drawing eight, and at home they have scored 1.73 a game and conceded just 1.00 across 11 matches. QPR average 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded. The venue splits project 1.42 against 1.07 – around 46% for Birmingham, with the draw at 27%.

14:00 Bristol City v Sheffield United — Bristol City (21/20)

Bristol City have won seven of their last 20, drawing five, with a modest home return of 0.89 scored and 1.11 conceded across nine. Sheffield United average 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded. The projection is 1.32 against 1.22, making Bristol City about 42% to win and the draw 27% – the shakiest leg on the slip.

14:00 Derby County v Stoke City — Derby County (13/8)

Derby County are the one leg our model marginally prefers to the price. They have won six of their last 20, drawing three, and at home score 1.00 and concede 1.22 across nine. Stoke City average 1.45 scored and 1.80 conceded, and the venue splits project 1.51 against 1.23 – about 40% for Derby, with the draw 25%.

14:00 Norwich City v Portsmouth — Norwich City (4/6)

Norwich City have won eight of their last 20, drawing just two, and at home have scored 1.60 and conceded 1.40 across 10 matches. Portsmouth average 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded. The projection is 1.76 against 1.28, which puts Norwich at about 53% to win, with the draw at 23%.

14:00 Southampton v Bolton Wanderers — Southampton (1/2)

Southampton are the banker of the slip, on W-W-L-W-W-D and scoring 2.55 a game at home while conceding 0.91 across 11 matches. They have won 12 of their last 20, drawing six. Bolton Wanderers average 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, and the venue splits project 2.18 against 1.15 – about 62% for Southampton, with the draw 20%.

14:00 West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers — West Brom (10/11)

West Bromwich Albion boast the best home defence in the acca, conceding just 0.64 a game while scoring 1.36 across 11 matches. They have won nine of their last 20, drawing seven. Blackburn Rovers average 1.15 scored and 1.10 conceded. The projection is 1.28 against 0.87, making West Brom about 48% to win, with the draw at 29%.

14:00 Wrexham v Preston North End — Wrexham (13/20)

Wrexham have won six of their last 20, drawing seven, and at home score 1.44 while conceding 1.56 across nine matches. Preston North End average 1.05 scored and 1.95 conceded. The venue splits project 1.75 against 1.21, which puts Wrexham at about 54% to win, with the draw at 24%.

Where to Back the Championship Acca

The prices above are bet365’s, and new customers can claim a welcome offer to get started – a Bet £10 Get £30 in free bets. Prices move through the day, and a nine-leg slip can be boosted or capped, so check the combined return in your betslip before you confirm.

Open a bet365 Account » 18+. New customers only. Min deposit and further terms apply. GambleAware.org.

More football tips: Championship tips · Accumulator tips · Bet builder tips · Free bets

Tips are our opinion and not guaranteed. This is a nine-leg accumulator where every leg must win – a long shot, best treated as small-stakes fun. Odds were correct at the time of writing and change throughout the day. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · GamCare.org.uk.

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