Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder Tips, Predictions and Best Bets

Andy Clark

Derby County vs Stoke City bet builder tips, predictions and stats for the Championship fixture on Saturday 17th October 2026. Get all the key player stats and our own betting tips as well as a bet builder tool to help you find the value bets.

Championship - Last 20 Games

Derby County vs Stoke City Team Stats

15:00

Derby CountyvStoke City
LDDLLL
Recent form
LWWWDW
1.10
Goals scored per game
1.45
1.55
Goals conceded per game
1.80
55%
Both teams scored
70%
75%
Over 1.5 goals
95%
55%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
20%
Over 3.5 goals
45%

Derby CountyvStoke City
12.8
Shots per game
11.8
3.95
Shots on target
3.75

Derby CountyvStoke City
1.21
Expected goals for
1.18
1.55
Expected goals against
1.76
48.55
Possession %
46.25

Derby CountyvStoke City
4.85
Corners per game
5.9
1.75
First half corners
3.1

Derby CountyvStoke City
13.2
Fouls per game
12.35
2.7
Own cards per game
2.0
4.4
Cards in match
4.1
1.2
First half cards
1.55
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Derby County take 12.8 shots a game and hit 3.95 on target, against Stoke City’s 11.8 and 3.75. Derby County commit 13.2 fouls a game to Stoke City’s 12.35, with 4.4 and 4.1 cards a match. Stripping the bookmaker margin out of the result makes it Derby County 36%, the draw 28% and Stoke City 36%. 3 legs in this match beat the price bet365 are offering, and they are all listed below with our own percentage beside the bookmaker’s.

Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder Tip

1Ethan Galbraith 1+ Shot on Target5 of his last 10, 0.6 per 90
Why this Leg

Ethan Galbraith has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 for Stoke City, at 0.6 per 90 across 900 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.

Stoke City take 11.8 shots a game and hit 3.75 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.

2Ben Johnson 1+ Shot on Target4 of his last 9, 0.44 per 90
Why this Leg

Ben Johnson has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 9 for Stoke City, at 0.44 per 90 across 810 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.

Stoke City take 11.8 shots a game and hit 3.75 on target. That is about 44% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.

3Sammie Szmodics Anytime Goalscorer4 of his last 10, 0.33 per 90
Why this Leg

Sammie Szmodics has scored in 4 of his last 10 for Derby County, at 0.33 per 90 across 1,380 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays.

Derby County score 1.10 a game. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 32% implied by 21/10.

bet365Add 3-Leg Build to Betslip

What Is the Best Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder?

Ethan Galbraith 1+ Shot on Target, Ben Johnson 1+ Shot on Target and Sammie Szmodics Anytime Goalscorer, around 25/1 to 28/1 combined.

Every leg is one the player has done in most of his recent matches, and every one is a line bet365 list, so the whole thing goes on as a single bet builder.

Ethan Galbraith has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 matches at 0.6 per 90, and Stoke City take 11.8 shots a game — 50% on our numbers against an implied 33%.

Ben Johnson has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 9 matches at 0.44 per 90, and Stoke City take 11.8 shots a game — 44% on our numbers against an implied 33%.

Sammie Szmodics has scored in 4 of his last 10 matches at 0.33 per 90, and Derby County score 1.10 a game — 40% on our numbers against an implied 32%.

If that is longer than you want, the betting tips below run from 1/10 to 2/1 and any of them swaps straight in. Legs in the same match are not independent — a fouls-drawn leg and a fouls-committed leg both get easier in a scrappy game — so treat the combined price as indicative, and bet365’s own builder will differ slightly.

Build Your Own Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder from Our Tips

Every selection below is one the stats stand up in this fixture, with the record behind it and the price beside it. To build your own bet builder from them, click Add to Betslip on each one you want — they go straight into your bet365 betslip and combine into a single bet builder there. Our own tip above is included in the list, so you can start from those legs and add to them.

  1. 01
    Ethan Galbraith 1+ Shot on TargetAdd to slip2/1Ethan Galbraith has had a shot on target in 5 of his last 10 for Stoke City, at 0.6 per 90 across 900 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.Stoke City take 11.8 shots a game and hit 3.75 on target. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.
  2. 02
    Ben Johnson 1+ Shot on TargetAdd to slip2/1Ben Johnson has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 9 for Stoke City, at 0.44 per 90 across 810 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.Stoke City take 11.8 shots a game and hit 3.75 on target. That is about 44% on his own record, against the 33% implied by 2/1.
  3. 03
    Alex Mowatt 1+ Foul Committedbet365TBCAlex Mowatt has committed a foul in 8 of his last 9 for Derby County, at 1.38 per 90 across 716 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.Stoke City hold 46.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
  4. 04
    Sammie Szmodics Anytime GoalscorerAdd to slip21/10Sammie Szmodics has scored in 4 of his last 10 for Derby County, at 0.33 per 90 across 1,380 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays.Derby County score 1.10 a game. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 32% implied by 21/10.
  5. 05
    Luke Graham to be CardedAdd to slip4/1Luke Graham has been booked in 3 of his last 8 for Stoke City, at 0.38 per 90 across 720 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.Stoke City pick up 2.0 cards a game and there are 4.1 in their matches. That is about 38% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.
  6. 06
    Alex Mowatt to be CardedAdd to slip10/3Alex Mowatt has been booked in 3 of his last 9 for Derby County, at 0.38 per 90 across 716 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.Derby County pick up 2.7 cards a game and there are 4.4 in their matches. That is about 33% on his own record, against the 23% implied by 10/3.
  7. 07
    Derby County to WinAdd to slip13/8Derby County have won 6 of their last 20, drawing 3, and at home they have scored 1.00 a game and conceded 1.22 across 9 matches.Stoke City average 1.45 scored and 1.80 conceded. The venue splits project 1.51 against 1.23, which puts Derby County at about 40% to win, against 25% for the draw.
  8. 08
    Both Teams to ScoreAdd to slip8/11Both teams have scored in 11 of Derby County's last 20 matches and 14 of Stoke City's. Derby County concede 1.55 a game and Stoke City 1.80.On the venue splits the projection is 1.51 against 1.23, which puts both teams scoring at about 59%.
  9. 09
    Over 2.5 GoalsAdd to slip10/11Derby County have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and Stoke City in 65%, with 75% and 95% going past 1.5.Derby County average 1.10 scored and 1.55 conceded, Stoke City 1.45 and 1.80. On the venue splits that projects 1.51 against 1.23, about 2.7 goals in the match and 56% for over 2.5.
  10. 10
    Correct Score 2-1Add to slip9/1On the venue splits this projects Derby County 1.51 against Stoke City 1.23, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.1%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Derby County, which is where the board has the match too.
  11. 11
    Derby County to Win and Both Teams to ScoreAdd to slip4/1Two things have to land, and the numbers support both: Derby County to win is about 40% and both teams scoring about 59%. Derby County score 1.10 a game and concede 1.55, and Stoke City have scored in 14 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 4/1.
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Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder Leg Finder

Every priced player in this fixture, with his record over the last ten matches beside the odds, so you can build your own rather than take ours. It covers the player prop markets one at a time — shots, shots on target, fouls committed, fouls drawn, tackles, cards and anytime goalscorer — and sorts each by how often the player has hit the line rather than by price, so a short price with a strong record is easy to spot. Free, no sign-in. It is the same tool behind our daily bet builder tips.

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Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder FAQs

What Is the Best Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder?

Ethan Galbraith 1+ Shot on Target, Ben Johnson 1+ Shot on Target and Sammie Szmodics Anytime Goalscorer, at around 25/1 to 28/1 combined with bet365.

Can You Put Odds-on Legs in a Bet Builder?

Yes. Our tracked best bets have to be 4/6 or longer, but inside a builder a short leg we rate well above its price is a sound anchor.

What Is an Attacking Derby County vs Stoke City Bet Builder?

For a builder built on attacking output rather than the fouls markets our main tip leans on: Bobby Clark 3+ Shots, David Ozoh 1+ Shots and Ethan Galbraith 1+ Shot on Target, around 9/1 combined with bet365. We make them Clark 50%, Ozoh 50%, Galbraith 50%. These are structured alternatives rather than value bets — the tip at the top of the page is the one where every leg beats its own price.

Which Player Takes the Most Shots in Derby County vs Stoke City?

Sammie Szmodics of Derby County. He has had a shot in 8 of his last 10 matches, at 2.41 per 90 across 1,380 minutes, and he averages 81 minutes a game when he plays. Derby County take 12.8 shots a game and hit 3.95 on target. bet365 list Sammie Szmodics 1+ Shots, with the current price in the leg finder below.

Which Player Commits the Most Fouls in Derby County vs Stoke City?

Carlton Morris of Derby County. He has committed a foul in 8 of his last 10 matches, at 2.23 per 90 across 1,169 minutes, and he averages 73 minutes a game when he plays. Stoke City hold 46.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for Carlton Morris 1+ Foul Committed at bet365 yet – one to watch when the market opens.

Which Player Makes the Most Tackles in Derby County vs Stoke City?

David Ozoh of Derby County. He has made 2 or more tackles in 8 of his last 10 matches, at 3.37 per 90 across 987 minutes, and he averages 62 minutes a game when he plays. Stoke City hold 46.25% of the ball, and Derby County commit 13.2 fouls a game. bet365 have not put this market up for him, so the odds are still TBC.

Which Player Is Fouled the Most in Derby County vs Stoke City?

Lewis Travis of Derby County. He has been fouled 2 times or more in 7 of his last 10 matches, at 2.22 per 90 across 1,175 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays. Stoke City commit 12.35 fouls a game. bet365 have not listed Lewis Travis 2+ Fouls Drawn yet, so there is no price to measure the record against.

What Is the Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction?

Derby County are 36% to win, the draw 28% and Stoke City 36% once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. Over 2.5 Goals is the one team market our numbers support.

What Time Is Derby County vs Stoke City?

Saturday 17th October 2026, 15:00 UK time.

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