The closest tie of the round on the market at 8/11 and 15/4, and the two sides have identical both-teams-to-score records. Every priced player is listed below with his last 20 matches.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 2/3 | 73% | 60% | +13 | Tipped |
| C. Brittain 1+ Shot | 83/100 | 67% | 55% | +12 | Tipped |
| L. Ayling 1+ Shot | 73/100 | 67% | 58% | +9 | Tipped |
| Over 3.5 Cards | 5/6 | 55% | 55% | +0 | Tipped |
| Both Teams to Score | 4/6 | 60% | 60% | -0 | — |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
Two tips: under 3.5 goals at 2/3, and over 3.5 cards at 5/6 where Tony Harrington’s 4.43 a game is doing the work rather than the sides’ own records.
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Palace and Middlesbrough saw goals at both ends in 12 of their last 20 each, and neither side is expected to control the tie. A draw at 3/1 is the single likeliest scoreline on our figures.
Cup ties break what this model reads. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a competition where both managers rest their regulars, those matches were played by different teams. The tips above are all team markets for that reason – corners, cards and goals depend on how two sides play rather than on which 11 players start.
- Carabao Cup tips for every tie in this round
- Value bets across every competition we cover
Today’s Betting Tips and Stats Based Predictions
Tomorrow
19:45Crystal Palace vs MiddlesbroughCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Bournemouth vs Lincoln CityCarabao Cup5 tips19:45Leyton Orient vs Bradford CityCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Millwall vs Newcastle UnitedCarabao Cup6 tips19:45Sunderland vs Hull CityCarabao Cup4 tips18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.