The one tie in this round where both sides are from the same division, so neither will rotate as heavily as the Premier League clubs.
That makes these figures more reliable than anything else on the card.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge | Tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Mitchell 2+ Shots | 81/50 | 50% | 38% | +12 | Tipped |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 8/11 | 69% | 58% | +11 | Tipped |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 17/20 | 58% | 54% | +4 | Tipped |
| Both Teams to Score | 3/4 | 55% | 57% | -2 | Tipped |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
Every market we priced on this tie, including the ones we are not backing. A row without a tip is not a weaker suggestion – it is a market where our figure and the price agree, or where the price is better than our figure.
Three tips: over 9.5 corners at 8/11, the widest gap here; under 2.5 goals at 17/20; and both teams to score at 3/4.
Leyton Orient vs Bradford City Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. Bradford are the marginal favourites at 13/10 despite being away, and the two sides have the lowest combined goals figure of the round at 2.38 a game.
Cup ties break what this model reads. Our figures come from each side’s last 20 matches, and in a competition where both managers rest their regulars, those matches were played by different teams. The tips above are all team markets for that reason – corners, cards and goals depend on how two sides play rather than on which 11 players start.
- Carabao Cup tips for every tie in this round
- Value bets across every competition we cover
Tomorrow
19:45Crystal Palace vs MiddlesbroughCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Bournemouth vs Lincoln CityCarabao Cup5 tips19:45Leyton Orient vs Bradford CityCarabao Cup4 tips19:45Millwall vs Newcastle UnitedCarabao Cup6 tips19:45Sunderland vs Hull CityCarabao Cup4 tips18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org
Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.