Our Preston North End vs Everton bet builder tips centre on goals and a card at Deepdale on Wednesday night, where the home side kept one clean sheet in their last twenty and Tony Harrington books 4.00 a game at the top two levels. We make it 1-2 to Everton at 90 minutes.
Preston’s figures come from the Championship and Everton’s from the Premier League, so the two columns below are not measured against the same opposition. Preston have also lost three of their five leading shot-takers this summer, which matters more than the raw numbers suggest.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Preston’s are Championship figures and Everton’s Premier League.
Preston North End vs Everton Key Stats
- 1 clean sheet in 20 for Preston, who conceded 38 goals across the sample at 1.90 a game.
- 8 goals in 830 minutes for Beto, at 0.87 per 90 — the best scoring rate on the page by some distance.
- 5 yellow cards in 708 minutes for Jordan Thompson, a rate of 0.64 per 90 and the highest in either squad.
- 4.00 cards a game is Harrington’s rate across 53 Premier League and Championship matches in the last three seasons. His published career figure of 2.60 is dragged down by non-league seasons recorded as zero.
- 35.45 clearances a game for Preston, the highest figure in our records from any side.
- 4 wins in 20 for Preston, with eleven defeats, and only ten goals scored in nine home matches.
- 86 shots left Deepdale this summer with Alfie Devine, Lewis Dobbin and Daniel Jebbison, all three back at their parent clubs.
Preston North End Form and Team News
Four wins, five draws and eleven defeats, with 21 scored and 38 conceded. The one clean sheet in twenty is the number that shapes this fixture — Preston have conceded in nineteen of their last twenty league matches.
The defending is busy rather than effective: 35.45 clearances a game is the highest figure we have logged from any side, and minus 0.27 goals prevented in goal says the shot-stopping has cost rather than saved. Expected goals of 1.22 for against 1.75 against matches the results.
The attack is the bigger problem now. Devine, Dobbin and Jebbison took 86 shots between them last season and all three have gone back to parent clubs, with Ben Whiteman leaving for Wrexham. Milutin Osmajić, Callum Lang and Brad Potts carry it instead. Lewis Gibson is suspended.
Everton Form and Team News
Six wins, six draws and eight defeats, with an away record that travels better than the home one — twelve scored and thirteen conceded in nine on the road against 17 and 17 at Goodison. Expected goals of 1.25 for and 1.51 against.
Beto is the standout. Eight goals in 830 minutes at 0.87 per 90, with twelve shots on target at 1.30 per 90, both the best rates in either squad. Thierno Barry adds seven in 1,071 minutes.
Everton are expected to rotate, which is worth stating before you read the player tips below. Beto is close to certain to start. James Garner is back from a groin problem and may be managed, and Tyrique George is unlikely to feature despite appearing in the shots on target table. Christian Nørgaard is out until 3 September and Tim Iroegbunam until 20 October. Jack Grealish and Idrissa Gana Gueye have both left the club.
Preston North End vs Everton Prediction
We are predicting a 1-2 Everton win. Our model gives Everton 53%, the draw 24% and Preston 23%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.75.
Those figures carry a cross-division adjustment. Preston’s numbers were made in the Championship, so they overstate what the same squad does against Premier League opposition, and we regress them towards the higher level rather than comparing the two columns as they stand.
We have adjusted Preston down further than the method alone gives. Losing 86 shots and two 1,300-minute creators is not something the model can see, and the attacking figures above describe a forward line that no longer exists.
Both teams to score comes out at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%. Neither is strong on its own, but Preston conceding in nineteen of twenty makes the Everton half of the goals case a good deal firmer than the Preston half.
Preston North End vs Everton Betting Tips
Beto Anytime Scorer — 11/10 with bet365
Eight goals in 830 minutes is 0.87 per 90, the best rate in either squad, and twelve shots on target at 1.30 per 90 says the volume is behind it rather than a run of finishing. He is also expected to start, which not everything on the Everton team sheet can claim.
Preston kept one clean sheet in their last twenty and conceded 1.90 a game at Deepdale. Beto’s last six read 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1 for goals, which is the honest caveat — he is a streaky finisher rather than a steady one, and several of those were short substitute appearances.
Jordan Thompson to Be Carded —
Five yellows in 708 minutes is 0.64 per 90, the highest card rate in either squad and above James Garner’s 0.42. He adds 15 fouls at 1.91 per 90 in a Preston side that commits 10.85 a game and takes 2.10 cards a match of its own.
Harrington books 4.00 a game across his last three seasons at the top two levels, well above the 3.13 these two sides average between them. Preston have no reason to rotate for a home tie against Premier League opposition, which is what separates this from the equivalent Everton selection.
Both Teams to Score — 5/6 with VirginBet
Thirteen of Preston’s last twenty produced goals at both ends and thirteen of Everton’s did the same. Preston conceded in nineteen of twenty, so the away half of this is close to a formality.
The Preston half is where it lives or dies. They failed to score in six of twenty with a forward line that has since lost its three highest-volume shooters, and Everton kept four clean sheets. This is the third tip for that reason.
Preston North End vs Everton Bet Builder Tip
| Selection | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | Preston conceded in 19 of 20 |
| Both teams to score | 13 of 20 for both sides |
| Jordan Thompson to be carded | 5 in 708 minutes, 0.64 per 90 |
| Beto anytime scorer | 8 goals in 830 minutes |
No two legs conflict and none sit on the same line. All four are consistent with the 1-2 prediction.
The two player legs are deliberately split across the sides. Everton are expected to make changes, so a build resting on two of their players would be betting on a team sheet as much as on the football. Thompson plays for a Championship side at home against Premier League opposition, which is the last place a manager rests anyone.
James Garner has the better card record at eight in 1,721 minutes, and on the numbers alone he would be the pick. He is out of the build because he is just back from a groin problem and his minutes may be managed. He stays in the pointers for anyone who wants him.
Alternative bet: Beto 1+ shot on target lands more often than the anytime market and still pays, at 1.30 per 90 across 830 minutes.
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20:00Preston North End vs EvertonCarabao Cup9 tipsAll betting lines on this page settle at 90 minutes. This tie goes to penalties if level, and those goals, cards and corners do not count.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
