Our Preston vs Everton bet builder tips, predictions and best bets start with a defence that does not keep anyone out. Preston kept one clean sheet in their last twenty and conceded 38 goals. Tony Harrington books 4.00 a game at the top two levels. We make it 1-2, and two of our four legs are prop bets.
Preston North End vs Everton
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Preston’s are Championship figures and Everton’s Premier League.
Preston vs Everton Key Stats and Insights
- 1 clean sheet in 20 for Preston, who conceded 38 goals at 1.90 a game and let one in against nineteen different opponents.
- 8 goals in 830 minutes for Beto, at 0.87 per 90 — the best scoring rate on the page and the reason he heads our anytime goalscorer tips.
- 5 yellow cards in 708 minutes for Jordan Thompson, a rate of 0.64 per 90 and the highest in either squad.
- 4.00 cards a game for Harrington across 53 Premier League and Championship matches in the last three seasons, against a published career figure of 2.60.
- 35.45 clearances a game for Preston, the highest figure in our records from any side.
- 4 wins in 20 for Preston, with eleven defeats and only ten goals scored in nine home matches.
- 86 shots left Deepdale this summer with Devine, Dobbin and Jebbison, all three back at parent clubs.
Preston vs Everton Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 Goals — Preston Conceded in 19 of Their Last 20
Twelve of Preston’s twenty went over 2.5 and eleven of Everton’s. Preston shipped 38 goals across the sample at 1.90 a game, and 1.89 at home specifically, which is the number this leg is built on rather than either attack.
Everton bring 1.25 expected goals for and 1.51 against, and their away record of twelve scored in nine travels better than their home one. Against a defence conceding in nineteen of twenty, they should not need to be at their best.
What beats it is Preston not scoring. They failed to find the net in six of twenty and have since lost their three highest-volume shooters, so a 0-2 is very much live and would leave this leg one goal short. The over 2.5 goals line needs both ends contributing and only one of them is reliable.
Both Teams to Score — 13 of Preston’s Last 20, 13 of Everton’s
Thirteen apiece, and Preston conceded in nineteen of twenty, so the Everton half of this is close to a formality. They scored in seventeen of their own twenty and kept four clean sheets.
The Preston half is where it lives or dies. Six blanks in twenty is not a disastrous record, but the forward line that produced it has gone — Devine, Dobbin and Jebbison took 86 shots between them and all three are back at parent clubs, with Ben Whiteman gone to Wrexham. Milutin Osmajić, Callum Lang and Brad Potts carry it now, and of the players left in our tables only three scored a league goal at all.
This is the third leg for that reason, and it is why the build does not also take over 3.5. One end is dependable and the other is a squad we have not seen yet.
J. Thompson to Be Carded — 0.64 per 90, the Highest Rate Here
Five yellows in 708 minutes, above James Garner’s 0.42 and the highest card rate in either squad. He adds fifteen fouls at 1.91 per 90 for a Preston side that commits 10.85 a game and takes 2.10 cards a match of its own.
Harrington books 4.00 a game across his last three seasons at the top two levels, well above the 3.13 these two sides average between them. His published career figure of 2.60 understates him by 1.40, dragged down by 22 National League matches recorded as zero — the sort of correction that changes a card line from marginal to backable.
The reason Thompson rather than Garner, who has the better record at eight yellows in 1,721 minutes, is rotation. Everton are expected to make changes and Garner is just back from a groin problem. Preston are a Championship side at home to Premier League opposition, which is the last place a manager rests anyone.
Beto Anytime Goalscorer — 8 Goals in 830 Minutes
Eight goals at 0.87 per 90 is the best scoring rate in either squad, and twelve shots on target at 1.30 per 90 says the volume is behind it rather than a run of finishing. He is also close to certain to start, which not everything on the Everton team sheet can claim.
Preston kept one clean sheet in their last twenty and conceded 1.90 a game at Deepdale, with minus 0.27 goals prevented in goal — a goalkeeper costing his side rather than saving it. Lewis Gibson is suspended on top of that.
His last six read 0, 0, 0, 1, 0 and 1 for goals, which is the honest caveat. He is a streaky finisher rather than a steady one and several of those appearances were short substitute spells. The rate is real; the guarantee of ninety minutes is not.
How the Four Fit Together
Two goals legs and two prop bets, and the goals legs overlap — a match with goals at both ends has usually cleared 2.5 as well. That shortens the price rather than spreading the risk, which is how most builds work and something we set out on our bet builder tips page.
The two prop bets are deliberately split across the sides. Everton are rotating, so a build resting on two of their players would be a bet on the team sheet as much as the football. Thompson plays for the side with no reason to change anything.
The leg that could let it down is over 2.5, and it is the Preston end of it.
Preston vs Everton Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Everton. Our model gives them 53%, the draw 24% and Preston 23%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 1.75 after regressing Preston’s Championship figures towards the higher level. We have adjusted Preston down further than the method gives, because losing 86 shots and two 1,300-minute creators is not something a model can see. No price was available when this was written — compare UK bookmakers first.
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More Carabao Cup and Betting Tips
- Anytime goalscorer tips for tonight’s ties
- Yellow card predictions across the round
- BTTS tips for every fixture we cover
- Bet £10 get £50 offers compared
All betting lines on this page settle at 90 minutes. This tie goes to penalties if level, and those goals, cards and corners do not count.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.