Our Tottenham vs Charlton bet builder tips, predictions and best bets start with a defence nobody expected. Spurs kept three clean sheets in their last twenty and conceded 38 goals, and they commit 13.55 fouls a game — the highest figure in our records. Two of our four legs are prop bets.
Tottenham vs Charlton
C. Coventry 2+ Tackles
8/10Three, 2, 3, 1, 2 and 4 in his last six – two or more in five of them, at 2.62 per 90 across 962 minutes.
He is one of only six Charlton players in the expected eleven who appear in our data at all, and a side holding 40% of the ball spends the evening making tackles.
M. Tel 2+ Shots
7/10Two, 2, 2, 2, 1 and 1 in his last six, at 2.62 per 90 across 1,031 minutes – the steadiest shot volume in either squad.
The caution is conversion. Ten shots on target from 30 attempts and 0.87 per 90 on target, so the shots line rather than the shots on target one.
S. Carey 2+ Shots
7/10Two, 2, 2, 2, 0 and 1 in his last six, at 2.17 per 90 across 1,535 minutes – the largest attacking sample on the page from either side.
Thirty-seven shots is more than any Spurs player managed, though it came in the division below against defences Tottenham are not.
M. Leaburn 1+ Foul
6/10Two, 1, 0, 1, 0 and 1 in his last six, at 2.40 per 90 across 524 minutes.
A forward who fouls at a midfielder’s rate, against a Spurs side whose own 13.55 a game suggests a scrappy evening rather than a comfortable one.
Over 3.5 Cards
7/10Tottenham matches averaged 4.40 cards last season and Charlton’s 3.80, putting the two sides at 4.10 between them. Spurs take 2.65 of their own a game and commit 13.55 fouls, both the highest figures in our records.
Adam Herczeg books 3.85 a game across 30 Championship matches in his last three seasons – marginally below what these two average, so the sides carry this rather than the official. His published career figure of 2.81 understates him by 1.02, dragged down by four National League seasons recorded as 0.00.
It is not a build leg because card markets carry no hit rate in our data. The evidence is an average rather than a record of how often the line has landed, and we do not put averages in builds.
Herczeg Has Never Refereed a Premier League Match
Thirty Championship games in three seasons, 33 in League One and 45 in League Two, and nothing above the second tier. He is consistent across all of them – 3.83, 3.64 and 3.40 – so the level makes little difference to him, but a Spurs tie is a step up in profile and the one variable his record cannot speak to.
Only Five of the Twenty-Two Named Starters Appear in Our Tables
Spurs have Udogie, Bentancur, Solanke, Tel and Danso; Charlton have Rankin-Costello, Bell, Coventry, Campbell, Carey and Leaburn. Dubravka, Gray, Van Hecke, Fernandes, Bergvall and Moore have no rows at all, because they were elsewhere last season. Nothing on this page is built on a player without a record.
Check Harry Clarke Before Backing Any Charlton Card
He carries eight yellows in 1,305 minutes, the highest count on the page, but a player of that name left Ipswich for Preston this summer. If the pull has attributed the wrong record, the best card angle here is not a Charlton one at all.
- 1Over 2.5 Goals13 of Tottenham’s last 20, 8 of Charlton’s
- 2Both Teams to Score13 of Tottenham’s last 20, 13 of Charlton’s
- 3R. Bentancur 2+ Tackles2+ in all 6 of his last 6
- 4D. Udogie 1+ Foul DrawnFouled in 5 of his last 6
Over 2.5 Goals
Spurs conceded 38 goals across the twenty at 1.90 a game and let one in against seventeen different opponents.
Charlton are the brake. One of their last 20 produced four goals or more and eleven finished under 2.5, so this leans almost entirely on the home side’s defending.
Both Teams to Score
Three clean sheets in twenty for Spurs, with minus 0.45 goals prevented in goal – a goalkeeper costing his side rather than saving it.
Charlton scored in seventeen of their twenty and took 1.22 a game on the road, better than their home rate. This is the safest leg of the four.
R. Bentancur 2+ Tackles
Three, 3, 2, 5, 2 and 3 in his last six, at 3.79 per 90 across 522 minutes. Nobody else in either squad has cleared two in all six.
He is also named in the expected eleven, which on a Spurs team sheet this rotated is worth as much as the record itself.
D. Udogie 1+ Foul Drawn
One, 2, 1, 0, 1 and 3 in his last six, at 1.58 per 90 across 855 minutes.
Charlton commit 11.25 fouls a game and hold 40% of the ball – the lowest possession figure in our data – so they will be chasing it for long spells.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Tottenham’s are Premier League figures and Charlton’s are Championship figures.
Tottenham vs Charlton Key Stats and Insights
- 3 clean sheets in 20 for Tottenham, who conceded 38 goals and let one in against seventeen different opponents.
- 13.55 fouls a game for Spurs and 2.65 cards of their own — both the highest figures in our records from any side, and the reason they sit near the top of our card tips data.
- 0 Premier League matches for Adam Herczeg, who takes charge having refereed 30 Championship games in three seasons and nothing above the second tier. He books 3.85 a game at that level against a published career figure of 2.81.
- 5 wins in 20 for Tottenham against ten defeats.
- 39.95% possession for Charlton, the lowest figure we have logged, alongside 33.4 clearances a game.
- 1 of Charlton’s last 20 produced four goals or more, against seven of Tottenham’s.
- Minus 0.45 goals prevented for the Spurs goalkeepers, the worst shot-stopping figure in our data this season.
- 5 of the 22 named starters appear in our player tables, because both squads have turned over heavily since these figures were made.
Tottenham vs Charlton Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 Goals — 13 of Tottenham’s Last 20, 8 of Charlton’s
Spurs conceded 38 goals across their twenty at 1.90 a game, and 2.11 at home specifically. Three clean sheets in the whole sample, and minus 0.45 goals prevented says the goalkeeping made it worse rather than better.
Sixty-five per cent of their matches cleared 2.5 and thirty-five per cent went past 3.5, which is a side involved in open games whether it wants to be or not. Charlton bring 1.05 goals a game and concede 1.10, so on their own they would not push a match over this line.
That is the weakness. One of Charlton’s last twenty produced four goals or more and eleven finished under 2.5 — they hold 40% of the ball and clear it 33.4 times a match. This leg leans almost entirely on Spurs defending the way they did last season, and a rotated side against Championship opposition may not have to.
Both Teams to Score — 13 of Tottenham’s Last 20, 13 of Charlton’s
Thirteen apiece, and the Spurs half is the strongest single argument on the page. Three clean sheets in twenty is the worst defensive record we have logged this season, and they conceded in seventeen of those matches.
Charlton scored in seventeen of their twenty and blanked three times. Their away record reads eleven goals in nine at 1.22 a game, better than the 0.91 they managed at home — a side that plays better without the ball, which suits an evening at a Premier League ground.
What beats it is the gap in class rather than either record. Charlton have not faced a defence of this quality often, even a rotated one, and their 1.11 expected goals for was made against Championship opposition. If Spurs keep their first clean sheet in five matches, this is the leg that goes.
R. Bentancur 2+ Tackles — 2 or More in All 6 of His Last 6
Three, three, two, five, two and three in his last six, at 3.79 per 90 across 522 minutes. Nobody else in either squad has cleared two in all six, and only João Palhinha comes close on rate.
The minutes are modest, but the run is not a fluke of short appearances — those six span 45 to 90 minutes, and the two-tackle floor held in the short ones as well as the long ones. A rate built on cameos usually collapses when you check the sequence; this one does not.
He is also named in the expected eleven, which on a Spurs team sheet this heavily rotated is worth as much as the record. Six of the eleven have no rows in our data at all. What beats this leg is Charlton having even less of the ball than their 40% average, leaving Bentancur nothing to tackle — and there is more on how we weigh that on our tackles and fouls prop bets page.
D. Udogie 1+ Foul Drawn — Fouled in 5 of His Last 6
One, two, one, nought, one and three in his last six, at 1.58 per 90 across 855 minutes. The single blank came in a match he played 85 minutes of, so it is a genuine miss rather than a substitute appearance.
Charlton commit 11.25 fouls a game and hold 39.95% of the ball, the lowest possession figure in our data. A side that defends that deep for that long fouls the players running at it, and Udogie is the one Spurs full-back in the expected eleven with a record behind him.
The argument against is his position rather than his form. A left-back gets fouled when he is overlapping, and a rotated Spurs side may not attack with the same width. His floor across six matches is one, and this is the leg most likely to fall a single incident short.
How the Four Fit Together
Two goals legs and two prop bets, and the goals legs overlap — a match with goals at both ends has usually cleared 2.5, so the price is shorter than four independent selections. That is normal, and our bet builder tips page explains why we prefer it that way.
The two prop bets pull in opposite directions, which is the useful part. Bentancur needs Charlton to have the ball; Udogie needs Spurs to have it. Between them, they cover both shapes the evening could take.
Over 2.5 is the leg most likely to let it down, and it is the Charlton end of it — one of their last twenty produced four goals or more.
Tottenham vs Charlton Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Tottenham. Our model gives them 51%, the draw 25% and Charlton 24%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 0.95.
Those figures carry a large manual adjustment, and it is worth saying so. Run on the records alone, the model makes Charlton favourites, because Spurs conceded 1.90 a game and Charlton 1.10. That is not a credible read of a Premier League side hosting a Championship one, and it is what happens when a model meets a 20-match sample from a bad season. We have moved it by judgement rather than by formula.
No price was available when this was written. If the market disagrees with our 51% by more than about ten points, take the market — on a fixture where the model needed this much correcting, it has earned less trust than usual. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Carabao Cup and Betting Tips
- Tackles and fouls prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Total goals tips across tonight’s ties
- Both teams to score tips this week
- Cash out betting sites compared
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
