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Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Sat 31 Oct 15:00 · Premier League

1. 01
   Ousmane Diomande 1+ ShotsAdd to slip11/10Ousmane Diomande has had a shot in 3 of his last 5 for Nottingham Forest, at 0.78 per 90 across 344 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.Nottingham Forest take 13.65 shots a game and hit 4.2 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 48% implied by 11/10.
2. 02
   Morgan Gibbs-White 1+ Shot on TargetAdd to slip8/11Morgan Gibbs-White has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Nottingham Forest, at 0.95 per 90 across 1,423 minutes, and he averages 84 minutes a game when he plays.Nottingham Forest take 13.65 shots a game and hit 4.2 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 58% implied by 8/11.
3. 03
   Michael Kayode 2+ Foul CommittedAdd to slip9/4Michael Kayode has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Brentford, at 0.92 per 90 across 1,557 minutes, and he averages 82 minutes a game when he plays.Nottingham Forest hold 46.35% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 31% implied by 9/4.
4. 04
   Vitaly Janelt to be CardedAdd to slip15/8Vitaly Janelt has been booked in 6 of his last 10 for Brentford, at 0.63 per 90 across 857 minutes, and he averages 78 minutes a game when he plays.Brentford pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 4.0 in their matches. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 35% implied by 15/8.
5. 05
   Igor Thiago to be CardedAdd to slip9/4Igor Thiago has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Brentford, at 0.3 per 90 across 1,793 minutes, and he averages 90 minutes a game when he plays.Brentford pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 4.0 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 31% implied by 9/4.
6. 06
   Nathan Collins to be CardedAdd to slip3/1Nathan Collins has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Brentford, at 0.31 per 90 across 1,143 minutes, and he averages 82 minutes a game when he plays.Brentford pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 4.0 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 25% implied by 3/1.
7. 07
   Under 8.5 CornersAdd to slip7/4Brentford win 4.35 corners a game and Nottingham Forest 4.55, with 2.25 and 2.4 of those in the first half.That leaves about 9 in the match, a 47% chance of 8 or fewer against the 36% implied by 7/4.
8. 08
   Brentford to WinAdd to slipEvensBrentford have won 4 of their last 20, drawing 12, and at home they have scored 1.70 a game and conceded 1.10 across 10 matches.Nottingham Forest average 1.45 scored and 1.15 conceded. The venue splits project 1.57 against 1.39, which puts Brentford at about 44% to win, against 24% for the draw.
9. 09
   Both Teams to ScoreAdd to slip8/13Both teams have scored in 12 of Brentford's last 20 matches and 11 of Nottingham Forest's. Brentford concede 1.30 a game and Nottingham Forest 1.15.On the venue splits the projection is 1.57 against 1.39, which puts both teams scoring at about 59%.
10. 10
    Correct Score 2-1Add to slip17/2On the venue splits this projects Brentford 1.57 against Nottingham Forest 1.39, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.6%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Brentford, which is where the board has the match too.
11. 11
    Brentford to Win and Both Teams to ScoreAdd to slip11/4Two things have to land, and the numbers support both: Brentford to win is about 44% and both teams scoring about 59%. Brentford score 1.45 a game and concede 1.30, and Nottingham Forest have scored in 11 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 11/4.