Chelsea vs Hull City betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
5 selections, and the sequences behind them run ten matches rather than six. Farai Hallam books 3.5 yellows a game.
Chelsea vs Hull City Team Stats
Chelsea
- L1-2at Arsenal06 Sep
- W3-2at Fulham24 Aug
- L1-2at Sunderland24 May
- W2-1Tottenham Hotspur19 May
- D1-1at Liverpool09 May
- L1-3Nottingham Forest04 May
Hull City
- D0-0Aston Villa05 Sep
- W1-0at Coventry City29 Aug
- W2-0Manchester United22 Aug
- W1-0Middlesbrough23 May
- W2-0at Millwall11 May
- D0-0Millwall08 May
Chelsea vs Hull City Betting Tips
M. Crooks 2+ Shots — 4/1. Matt Crooks has had 2 or more shots in 4 of his last 10 for Hull City, at 1.1 per 90 across 1,228 minutes, and has started 1 of 1 this season.
M. Belloumi 1+ Shots on Target — 5/4. Mohamed Belloumi has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Hull City, at 1.04 per 90 across 863 minutes, and has started 3 of 3 this season.
J. Pedro 2+ Fouls Drawn — 5/6. João Pedro has been fouled twice or more in 7 of his last 10 for Chelsea, at 2.39 per 90 across 1,396 minutes, and has started 3 of 3 this season.
L. Coyle 2+ Fouls Drawn — 12/5. Lewie Coyle has been fouled twice or more in 4 of his last 10 for Hull City, at 1.0 per 90 across 1,433 minutes, and has started 3 of 3 this season.
Both Teams to Score — 10/11. Our model gives this about 60% against the 52% implied by 10/11.
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Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Crooks 2+ Shots | 4/1 | 40% | 20% | +20 |
| M. Belloumi 1+ Shots on Target | 5/4 | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| J. Pedro 2+ Fouls Drawn | 5/6 | 70% | 55% | +15 |
| L. Coyle 2+ Fouls Drawn | 12/5 | 40% | 29% | +11 |
| Both Teams to Score | 10/11 | 60% | 52% | +8 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.
The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.
Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Chelsea. The market makes them 77%, the draw 14% and Hull 9%.
Chelsea score 2.10 goals a game at home, and the scoreline carries a Hull goal because our own tip does – Chelsea have kept only 4 clean sheets in 20, so both sides scored in 16 of them. Hull have won 2 of their last 6 and conceded 15 in 10 away matches.
Our own model is well off the market here at 31% Chelsea, and that is our figures failing on a promoted side rather than a disagreement worth backing – Hull’s last 20 are mostly Championship matches, and the model cannot see the gap between the two divisions.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.