Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction
We are predicting a 1-1 draw. Our model gives Everton 44%, the draw 27% and Crystal Palace 28%, from expected goals of 1.64 to 1.28. Both teams to score comes out at 60% and over 1.5 goals at 80%.
Those figures sit almost exactly on the market, which has Everton at 44%, the draw at 27% and Palace at 29% once the bookmaker’s margin is removed. This is the only fixture on the card where both sides played the whole of last season in the same division, so no league adjustment is needed and the numbers compare directly.
Neither side arrives in any form from last season. Everton have won six of their last twenty and Palace four, with Palace drawing seven. Palace score exactly 1.00 goals a game home and away, and concede 1.90 on the road.
Everton have an unusual problem of their own: they concede more at home than they score, 1.70 against 1.50. That is why the model gives them less of a home edge than their favouritism suggests.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Betting Tips
1. Over 1.5 Goals. This has landed in 17 of Everton’s last 20 matches and 15 of Palace’s. Both defences leak — Everton concede 1.50 a game and Palace 1.55 — even if neither attack is convincing.
2. Under 3.5 Total Cards. Referee Paul Tierney books 2.85 players a game, seventh lowest of the twenty-six officials we have covered, and shows 0.07 red cards. Everton’s matches produce 3.10 cards and Palace’s 3.85, so both measures sit below the line.
3. Both Teams to Score. Thirteen of Everton’s last 20 have seen both sides score and twelve of Palace’s. Neither keeps clean sheets — four in twenty for Everton, five for Palace.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Stats
| Market | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| Won, drawn, lost | 6-6-8 | 4-7-9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 20 | 5 of 20 |
| Failed to score | 3 of 20 | 6 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.25 | 3.45 |
| Big chances missed | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| Home / away conceded | 1.70 at home | 1.90 away |
| Corners per game | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Cards in match | 3.10 | 3.85 |
Figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Everton vs Crystal Palace Key Stats
- 4 wins in 20 for Crystal Palace, with seven draws
- 1.00 goals a game for Palace, identical home and away
- 1.90 conceded away by Palace, against 1.20 at home
- 1.70 conceded at Hill Dickinson by Everton, more than the 1.50 they score there
- 3.45 shots on target a game for Palace and 4.25 for Everton, the lowest pair we have covered
- 2.85 yellow cards a game for referee Paul Tierney, seventh lowest of the 26 officials in our data
- 1.70 big chances missed a game by Palace, against 0.90 for Everton
Everton vs Crystal Palace Corners and Cards
This is a quiet fixture in both markets and the page will not pretend otherwise. Everton take 4.10 corners a game and Palace 4.60, a combined 8.70 — under 9.5 has landed in 13 of Everton’s last twenty.
Cards lean under rather than over. Everton’s matches produce 3.10 across both sides and Palace’s 3.85, and Paul Tierney books 2.85 a game with a red card rate of 0.07, the second lowest in our data. On the teams’ figures over 3.5 reads 46%; on the referee’s it reads 32%.
One counterpoint worth knowing: Palace’s matches have produced six red cards in twenty, a rate of 0.30 a game against Everton’s 0.15. That is a strong individual figure, but Tierney’s own record undercuts it heavily and we would not back it against this official.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
