Our Newcastle vs Bournemouth bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a fixture the market and our figures disagree on, and we have four best bets ranging from 5/6 to 11/4.
Bournemouth won 2-1 here in April and have conceded seven goals in ten away matches. Newcastle have two clean sheets in twenty.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
Newcastle United
- W2-0at Tottenham Hotspur29 Aug
- D2-2Liverpool23 Aug
- L0-2at Fulham24 May
- W3-1West Ham United17 May
- D1-1at Nottingham Forest10 May
- W3-1Brighton & Hove Albion2 May
Bournemouth
- D1-1Everton29 Aug
- L1-2at Manchester City23 Aug
- D1-1at Nottingham Forest24 May
- D1-1Manchester City19 May
- W1-0at Fulham9 May
- W3-0Crystal Palace3 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Four of Newcastle’s were European fixtures; their last ten are all Premier League. Prices are bet365, checked 2 September.
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Newcastle vs Bournemouth Key Stats and Insights
- Bournemouth won 2-1 at St James’ Park in April, and also beat Arsenal 2-1 away a week earlier. Their last ten include four wins, five draws and one defeat.
- 7 goals conceded in 10 away matches for Bournemouth at 0.70 a game, the best away defensive figure in our Premier League data.
- 2 clean sheets in 20 for Newcastle, and 1.80 conceded a game at home.
- 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded for Newcastle across their last ten Premier League matches — exactly league average, and well below the 1.80 and 1.75 their twenty-match figures show. Four European fixtures inflate the aggregate.
- 0.71 cards per 90 for Yoane Wissa, the highest rate in either squad, at 5/1.
- 4.52 cards a game for Robert Jones across 62 Premier League matches in his last three seasons, against a career figure of 2.92 — a correction of 1.60.
- 8.4% margin on this fixture, the widest we have recorded.
- 29 fouls drawn for Evanilson, the highest total in either squad, alongside eight goals — he is not a target man being fouled instead of playing.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Bet Builder Tips
Evanilson 2+ Fouls Drawn — 3 of His Last 6, 11/4
4, 1, 3, 2, 0 and 3 in his last six, at 1.85 per 90 across 1,408 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 27% — the widest gap on this page.
Twenty-nine fouls drawn is the highest total in either squad, and he has eight goals as well, so he is not a target man being fouled instead of playing.
Newcastle commit 11.30 fouls a game and concede 2.50 in the final third against Bournemouth’s 1.70 — the higher figure of the two. A centre-forward holding the ball up against that is where this market lives, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page covers why the opposition’s habits matter as much as the player’s.
J. Willock 2+ Shots — 4 of His Last 6, 5/6
3, 1, 2, 1, 2 and 2 in his last six, at 1.86 per 90 across 1,163 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 55%.
He has had a shot in every one of the six, so the floor is one rather than nought — which matters more on a 1.5 line than the average does.
Twenty-four shots and nine on target across the sample, from a midfielder who gets into the box. Newcastle take 27.10 touches in the box a game against Bournemouth’s 22.90, and enter the final third 51.40 times against 56.10 — they get closer to goal with fewer entries.
Both Teams to Score — 16 of Newcastle’s Last 20, 14 of Bournemouth’s
Newcastle saw goals at both ends in 80% of their matches, the highest rate on this page, and kept two clean sheets in twenty. Bournemouth managed it in 70% and have scored in nine of their last ten.
Between them that is about 75% against an implied 67%.
The argument against is Bournemouth’s away record and it is a real one. Seven goals conceded in ten away matches at 0.70 a game is the best away defensive figure in our Premier League data. Five of their last ten finished 1-1 or 1-0.
A. Smith 1+ Foul Drawn — 4 of His Last 6, 10/11
0, 3, 2, 1, 1 and 0 in his last six, at 1.12 per 90 across 1,042 minutes. Fouled in four of six is 67% against an implied 52%.
He has started 90, 90 and 78 minutes in his last three, so there is no rotation question. The two blanks are the caution and both came in full appearances.
Bournemouth’s full-backs get forward — they enter the final third 56.10 times a game against Newcastle’s 51.40 despite holding less of the ball. A full-back receiving in that area is what draws the foul.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 11/4 into a percentage and the market is saying 27%. We work out the same number from the record and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Wissa to be carded | 5/1 | 17% | 38% |
| Evanilson 2+ fouls drawn | 11/4 | 27% | 50% |
| A. Smith 1+ foul drawn | 10/11 | 52% | 67% |
| J. Willock 2+ shots | 5/6 | 55% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | 1/2 | 67% | 75% |
| A. Elanga anytime goalscorer | 3/1 | 25% | 34% |
And the ones priced above what the numbers support:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 4/5 | 56% | 50% |
| Over 10.5 corners | 4/5 | 56% | 48% |
| Over 4.5 cards | 5/6 | 55% | 44% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. An implied probability always includes the bookmaker’s margin, which on this fixture is 8.4% — the widest we have recorded, so a fair price looks further against us here than usual.
Wissa is the widest gap and he is not a Best Bet. Three yellows in 382 minutes reads as 0.71 per 90 and 51%; regressed against a baseline it is 38%, which sits below the 40% we require. Four card selections went out on Tuesday at 40-48% raw and all four lost — regressed they would have been 33-39% and none would have been published. The regression is new and this is the first page it has been applied to.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Betting Tips
Four selections, in the order our figures rate them.
Both teams to score — 1/2. Newcastle saw goals at both ends in 80% of their matches and kept two clean sheets in twenty; Bournemouth managed it in 70%. About 75% between them against an implied 67%. Bournemouth’s seven conceded in ten away is what could stop it.
Adam Smith one or more fouls drawn — 10/11. Fouled in four of his last six at 1.12 per 90, with 90, 90 and 78 minutes in his last three. Bournemouth enter the final third 56.10 times a game against Newcastle’s 51.40.
Joe Willock two or more shots — 5/6. Four of his last six, and a shot in every one — the floor is one rather than nought. Newcastle take 27.10 touches in the box a game against Bournemouth’s 22.90.
Evanilson two or more fouls drawn — 11/4. Three of his last six at 1.85 per 90, from 29 fouls drawn — the highest total in either squad. Newcastle commit 11.30 fouls a game and concede 2.50 in the final third.
All four are in our bet builder. They come from three markets — fouls drawn, shots and the goals market — and fail for different reasons: Evanilson and Smith need the match physical, Willock needs Newcastle attacking, both teams to score needs Bournemouth to find a goal. We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests.
Yoane Wissa to be carded at 5/1 is the widest gap on the page and it is not one of the four. Three yellows in 382 minutes is 0.71 per 90, which regresses to 38% — below the 40% we require of a Best Bet. Worth a look at that price if you are happy with the sample.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 43% Newcastle, 26% the draw and 31% Bournemouth. Our model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 41% with Newcastle at 35%.
That is a disagreement about who wins rather than by how much, and it is the closest our figures have come to overturning a home favourite.
Newcastle’s twenty-match figures are inflated by four European fixtures. Across their last ten Premier League matches they scored 1.40 and conceded 1.40 — exactly league average — against the 1.80 and 1.75 the aggregate shows. They have kept two clean sheets all season.
Bournemouth won 2-1 at St James’ Park in April, beat Arsenal 2-1 away a week earlier, and have conceded seven goals in ten away matches. We publish the market on the ten-point rule, but not comfortably. Boylesports are offering £40 in free bets to new customers if you want one for it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Premier League betting tips all season
- Both teams to score tips this weekend
- Tackles and fouls prop bets across the round
- Betfred promo code for £50 in free bets
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.