Our Tottenham vs Newcastle bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come with a warning attached. The two squads have spent around £520m since these figures were recorded — more than double any fixture we have covered. Rodrigo Bentancur has made two tackles in all six of his last six and is 8/15.
Tottenham vs Newcastle United
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Prices are bet365, checked 29 August.
Tottenham vs Newcastle Key Stats and Insights
- £520m spent across the two squads since these figures were recorded — Tottenham around £304m, Newcastle around £216m. More than double any fixture we have covered.
- 4.43 cards a match between the two sides — Tottenham’s games averaged 4.40 and Newcastle’s 4.45, the highest pairing we have measured.
- 13.55 fouls a game for Tottenham and 2.65 cards of their own, both the highest figures in our records from any side.
- 1 clean sheet in 20 for Newcastle and three for Tottenham, with 38 and 39 goals conceded.
- 6 of 6 for Rodrigo Bentancur clearing two tackles, at 8/15 — 100% against an implied 65%.
- 85% both teams to score in Newcastle matches, the highest rate in our data.
- Minus 0.45 goals prevented for the Tottenham goalkeepers, the worst shot-stopping figure we have logged.
Tottenham vs Newcastle Bet Builder Tips
R. Bentancur 2+ Tackles — 6 of His Last 6, 8/15
3, 3, 2, 5, 2 and 3 in his last six, at 3.79 per 90 across 522 minutes. Two or more in every one of them is 100% against an implied 65%, and the floor across the run is two rather than one.
Nobody in either squad has a cleaner sequence. It is short at 8/15, and the value is real rather than large — but a leg with a floor of two is worth more in a build than a longer price with a zero in the run.
The 522 minutes are the caveat and on our own scale that is squad-player territory. What makes it usable is the team sheet: Pape Matar Sarr, Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison and Xavi Simons are all out, so Spurs’ midfield options are thin. The 2.5 line at 13/8 is the better bet as a single, at 67% against an implied 38%, and our tackles and fouls prop bets page explains when to take which.
C. Gallagher 3+ Fouls — 2 of His Last 6, 10/3
1, 1, 4, 3, 1 and 2 in his last six, at 1.87 per 90 across 1,205 minutes. Three or more in two of them is 33% against an implied 23%.
He has fouled in all six, so the floor is one rather than nought, and 1,205 minutes is a full season behind the rate. That combination is what makes the longer line worth taking — the 1.5 line at 11/10 implies 48% against a record of three in six and is level rather than value.
Tottenham commit 13.55 fouls a game and take 2.65 cards of their own, both the highest figures in our records from any side, and Gallagher carries the highest foul rate among their fit players. Kevin Danso was the original selection here and is unlikely to start, which is covered in the pointers above.
W. Osula 2+ Fouls Drawn — 3 of His Last 6, 9/4
0, 1, 2, 3, 0 and 2 in his last six, at 1.69 per 90 across 854 minutes. Three of six is 50% against an implied 31%.
He is also Newcastle’s leading scorer in our tables with six goals, which is less a compliment than a description of what happens when Anthony Gordon goes to Barcelona and Bruno Guimarães to Arsenal. The attacking load has moved to him by default.
Tottenham’s 13.55 fouls a game is the argument, and it is the same one behind the Danso leg — which is the concentration worth knowing. A forward running at a defence missing van de Ven draws fouls; the same defence commits them. Both legs need Spurs to be under pressure.
J. Murphy to be Carded — 0.34 per 90, 4/1
3 yellows in 785 minutes at 0.34 per 90, which puts him around 29% to be booked against an implied 20%.
His own rate is modest and the fixture is what makes this a bet. Tottenham and Newcastle average 4.43 cards a match between them — the highest pairing we have measured — and both carry the two highest own-card figures in our data at 2.65 and 2.25. Spurs also commit 13.55 fouls a game, more than any side we have logged.
Two players have better rates and worse samples. Yoane Wissa is 0.85 per 90 at 9/2 and Nico González 0.68 at 11/5, but both come off around 300 minutes and neither is certain to start. Murphy’s 785 is the reason he leads our card tips here rather than either of them.
The caution is the referee. Peter Bankes books 3.94 a game across 302 career matches, and that is a career figure — every official we have measured is understated by 0.7 to 1.9 at that level, so his real Premier League rate is likely higher. It has not been confirmed either way.
How the Four Fit Together
Four legs at 8/15, 10/3, 9/4 and 4/1, which compounds to around 55/1. The card is what makes the price long, and it is there deliberately — a build of three short tackle and foul legs pays around 13/1, which is not what most readers are looking for from four selections.
The card also earns its place on the numbers rather than on the price. Tottenham and Newcastle average 4.43 cards a match between them, the highest pairing we have measured, and both carry the two highest own-card figures in our data at 2.65 and 2.25. Murphy’s own 0.34 per 90 is modest; the fixture is what makes it a bet.
Gallagher and Bentancur both need the ball contested in midfield, Osula needs Tottenham defending, and Murphy needs neither. The four do not turn on the same shape of match, which matters on a fixture the model and the market cannot agree on. Our bet builder tips page explains why we weigh that above a shorter correlated price.
Jacob Ramsey at two tackles was the alternative fourth at 67% against an implied 36%, and it shares a market group with Bentancur. Everything else is priced against us: Mathys Tel at one shot on target implies 64% against a record of one in six, and Yoane Wissa has the best card rate in either squad with 317 minutes behind it.
Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction
We are predicting 1-2 to Newcastle. Our model gives them 41%, the draw 23% and Tottenham 36%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.72.
The market disagrees on who is favourite. It makes Tottenham 42.1%, the draw 25.3% and Newcastle 32.7% — an eight-point gap on the away side, just inside the threshold where we would defer to the price. The margin is 5.6%, the widest on this weekend’s card, which usually means less information in the price than usual.
Both readings are built on figures that describe different squads. Tottenham kept three clean sheets in twenty and Newcastle one; both conceded around 39 goals. Neither side will field the team that produced those numbers — £520m has changed hands between them since. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Tackles and fouls prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Players to be booked this weekend
- Shots on target prop bets across the round
- Premier League betting tips all season
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.