Our Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham bet builder tips, predictions and best bets come from a fixture where one side cannot score and the other cannot stop scoring, and we have two best bets at 2/3 and 7/10.
Tottenham have lost 0-2 and 0-3 to start the season. Forest have scored eighteen goals in eight Premier League matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur
Nottingham Forest
- D2-2at Liverpool29 Aug
- L0-1Leeds United22 Aug
- D1-1Bournemouth24 May
- L2-3at Manchester United17 May
- D1-1Newcastle United10 May
- W3-1at Chelsea4 May
Tottenham Hotspur
- L0-2Newcastle United29 Aug
- L0-3at Brentford22 Aug
- W1-0Everton24 May
- L1-2at Chelsea19 May
- D1-1Leeds United11 May
- W2-1at Aston Villa3 May
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Seven of Forest’s and three of Tottenham’s were European fixtures. Prices are bet365, checked 3 September.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 matches. Seven of Forest’s and three of Tottenham’s were European fixtures. Prices are bet365, checked 3 September.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Key Stats for Betting
- 18 scored and 10 conceded for Forest across the Premier League matches in their last ten — 2.25 and 1.25 a game, well above the 1.55 and 1.20 their twenty-match figures show.
- 0-2 and 0-3 for Tottenham in their opening two matches, at home to Newcastle and away at Brentford. They have failed to score in both.
- 2.70 own cards a game for Tottenham and 13.85 fouls, both the highest figures in our Premier League data. Forest sit at 1.60 and 11.40.
- 21 conceded in 10 home matches for Tottenham at 2.10 a game, against 17 in ten away.
- minus 0.51 goals prevented for the Tottenham goalkeepers, the second-worst shot-stopping figure we hold.
- 10.0% margin on this fixture, the widest we have recorded — a fair price looks further against a backer here than on any other page.
- 22 shots from a full-back for Pedro Porro across 1,228 minutes, and he takes Tottenham’s set pieces from the right.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Bet Builder Tips
P. Porro 2+ Shots — 4 of His Last 6, 2/3
4, 2, 0, 2, 1 and 2 in his last six, at 1.61 per 90 across 1,228 minutes. Four of six is 67% against an implied 60%.
Twenty-two shots from a full-back is unusual volume, and 1,228 minutes is a real sample rather than a hot run — the figure barely moves under any regression.
He takes Tottenham’s set pieces from the right, which matters more than it sounds. A defender’s shot count from open play depends on his side having the ball; from free kicks and corners it does not. Tottenham have lost their opening two matches 0-2 and 0-3, so a source of shots that survives a poor afternoon is worth more here than a forward’s record would be. Our shots on target prop bets page covers the same reasoning across the round.
Both Teams to Score — 12 of Forest’s Last 20, 12 of Tottenham’s
Sixty per cent each, and about 60% between them against an implied 59%.
Forest have scored in seven of their last eight Premier League matches, including a 5-0 at Sunderland and a 4-1 against Burnley. Tottenham conceded 2.10 a game at home across the sample and their goalkeepers have a goals-prevented figure of minus 0.51 — the second worst we hold.
Tottenham’s end is the question and it is a live one. They have failed to score in both matches this season, 0-2 at home to Newcastle and 0-3 at Brentford. Two blanks in a row is why this is 7/10 rather than shorter, and it is the honest reason not to expect more from the price.
Where the Odds and the Stats Disagree
Every price implies a probability. Turn 2/3 into a percentage and the market is saying 60%. We work out the same number from the record and publish both.
The selections where the record beats the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| P. Porro 2+ shots | 2/3 | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | 7/10 | 59% | 60% |
| P. Porro to be carded | 9/4 | 31% | 33% |
And the ones where the numbers do not support the price:
| Selection | Price | Market implies | Our figure |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 cards | 10/11 | 55% | 44-56% |
| Over 10.5 corners | Evens | 50% | 45% |
One thing worth knowing before reading those columns. The margin on this fixture is 10.0% — the widest we have recorded against a typical five to seven. A fair price looks further against a backer here than on any other page this weekend, so a selection needs a bigger apparent edge to be worth the same.
Over 3.5 cards is shown as a range rather than a figure because Craig Pawson’s rate is not settled. Three seasons give 4.05; last season alone gives 2.90. The fixture blends to 3.96 on the first and 3.39 on the second, and four or more cards is 56% or 44% depending which you believe. That is too wide to bet into on a fixture where Tottenham take 2.70 cards a game.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Betting Tips
Two selections, both from records that hold up whichever way the match goes.
Pedro Porro two or more shots — 2/3. Four of his last six, from 22 shots and 1,228 minutes. A full-back with set-piece duty, so the volume does not depend on Tottenham having the ball — which on current form is the right assumption.
Both teams to score — 7/10. Sixty per cent from each side’s last twenty. Forest have scored in seven of their last eight at this level; Tottenham have conceded 2.10 a game at home and their goalkeeping is minus 0.51 goals prevented.
Both are in our bet builder. They fail for different reasons — Porro needs Tottenham to attack at all, both teams to score needs each side to manage one. We have not quoted a combined price because a bet builder prices correlated legs shorter than multiplying them suggests.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Forest. Our model gives them 45%, the draw 25% and Tottenham 30%. The market says 36.4%, 28.0% and 35.7% — a nine-point gap, inside the threshold where we defer to the price.
That figure uses Premier League matches only. Forest’s last eight at this level produced eighteen goals and ten conceded — 2.25 and 1.25 a game — against a twenty-match aggregate of 1.55 and 1.20 dragged down by seven European fixtures. Their last three league matches at home read 3-1 at Chelsea, 5-0 at Sunderland and 4-1 against Burnley.
Tottenham’s last seven league matches produced six goals and nine conceded, and both openings this season finished without them scoring.
The 10.0% margin is the widest we have recorded, which usually means the book is less confident than usual rather than more. Boylesports are offering £40 in free bets to new customers if you want one for it.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.