Every season someone crashes the Premier League Top Goalscorer market – and it’s not a fluke. An outsider has finished in the top four for three straight seasons: Igor Thiago (100/1) came second last term, after Chris Wood and Cole Palmer did the same in the years before.
So while the 2026/27 favourites are where the crowd piles in, the value in the top goalscorer market is further down the list. Here are the dark horses at 66/1 and bigger who could sneak into the top four this season.
Quick answer: the dark-horse picks
| Player | Odds | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Jesus | 100/1 | Forest’s likely first-choice striker under attacking new boss Glasner |
| William Osula | 100/1 | Five goals in his last seven for Newcastle; in line to lead the line |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 100/1 | 13 goals in 33 last season, more game time coming, still only 20 |
Odds from the early 2026/27 market and subject to change. 18+. GambleAware.org.
Why back a dark horse in the Golden Boot market?
Because the market’s history says the podium isn’t just for the favourites — and the last three seasons prove it. An outsider has finished in the top four every year:
| Season | Winner | The dark horse (final finish) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Haaland (27) | Igor Thiago, 2nd on 22 — a 100/1 shot; Semenyo 3rd on 17 |
| 2024/25 | Salah (29) | Chris Wood, joint 4th on 20 for Nottingham Forest |
| 2023/24 | Haaland (27) | Cole Palmer 2nd (22) and Phil Foden (19), both from outside the obvious names |
The lesson is that a striker who becomes his team’s undisputed penalty-taker and focal point can rack up 18–22 goals from nowhere — and at 66/1 or 100/1, they don’t even have to win the market to pay out. Most top goalscorer bets are available each-way, so a top-four finish returns a place at a fraction of those odds. That’s the angle: you’re not betting on the next Haaland, you’re betting on the next Thiago.
The dark horses to watch for 2026/27
Looking well beyond the obvious names, these are the outsiders with a realistic route to a big goal tally — each at 100/1.
Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest) — 100/1 with bet365, William Hill and Star Sports
Forest’s Brazilian striker finished as the top scorer in the Europa League last season and hit 16 goals in all competitions, and the pieces are in place for a bigger Premier League tally in 2026/27. New manager Oliver Glasner is expected to make Forest more attacking, with Morgan Gibbs-White as the supply chain from midfield. Crucially, Jesus looks likely to be the first-choice striker — the same lone-frontman role Glasner got so much out of Jean-Philippe Mateta at Crystal Palace. If he leads the line for a Glasner side built to create, 100/1 will look big.
William Osula (Newcastle United) — 100/1 with bet365, William Hill and Star Sports
Osula’s late-season form for Newcastle is the most encouraging pointer of any of these longshots. He began 2025/26 as a back-up after Eddie Howe recruited Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa following Alexander Isak’s move to Liverpool, and had started just one of the opening 31 games, with 16 substitute appearances and two goals.
Then Howe moved Woltemade into a deeper role, and Osula started each of Newcastle’s final seven matches up front. He seized it — five goals in seven games, finishing the season with seven from just eight starts, one behind Woltemade’s eight despite Woltemade starting 24 times.
| Osula’s 2025/26 | GW1–31 | GW32–38 |
|---|---|---|
| Starts | 1 | 7 |
| Substitute appearances | 16 | 0 |
| Goals | 0 | 5 |
With Woltemade possibly leaving and Wissa poor last season, Osula could be Newcastle’s main striker in 2026/27 — and a full season at his late-season rate would blow 100/1 apart.
Eli Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth) — 100/1 with bet365, William Hill and Star Sports, QuinnBet and BetVictor
Still only 20, Kroupi scored 13 goals in 33 appearances last season and is attracting interest from Spurs and Arsenal. At the time of writing he’s at Bournemouth, where he’s set for far more game time this season — and Tottenham in particular need a striker, so his situation is worth watching. Whether he stays and starts for Bournemouth or moves to a bigger creator of chances, the trajectory of a 20-year-old already scoring at this rate makes him a genuine each-way longshot.
Which dark horse is the best bet?
For a genuine crash-the-market pick, William Osula at 100/1 is the standout — his five goals in the final seven games came the moment he was handed the lead role, and if Woltemade departs he starts 2026/27 as Newcastle’s main striker. That profile, a long shot who suddenly becomes his team’s focal point, is exactly the one that has outperformed its price for three years running. Igor Jesus is the close second, with Glasner’s attacking setup and a first-choice role at Forest. Back either each-way and a top-four finish pays out even if a favourite wins the market outright.
As always with outright markets, prices move all summer with transfers and pre-season form, so take a view early. For the full market including the favourites, see our main Premier League top goalscorer odds page, and compare prices across bookmakers on our football odds hub.
Disclosure: Thatsagoal is an affiliate partner of the bookmakers featured on this page and may earn a commission if you open an account through our links. This does not affect our editorial view. Odds correct at the time of writing. 18+. GambleAware.org.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the dark horses for the 2026/27 Premier League Golden Boot?
Our picks are Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest), William Osula (Newcastle) and Eli Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth), all around 100/1 — players in line for a bigger role and a route to a large goal tally.
Has a long shot won or placed in the Golden Boot before?
Yes, in each of the last three seasons. Igor Thiago finished second on 22 goals from 100/1 in 2025/26, Chris Wood was joint fourth on 20 in 2024/25, and Cole Palmer and Phil Foden both finished in the top scorers in 2023/24 — all beating most of the favourites.
Should I bet the top goalscorer market each-way?
Each-way is the sensible structure for a dark horse — a top-four finish returns a place at a fraction of the odds, so your pick doesn’t have to win outright to pay out.
Do Premier League top goalscorer odds change before the season?
Yes, significantly. Prices move through the summer with transfers, injuries and pre-season form, so an early price can be worth taking.
Who is favourite for the 2026/27 Golden Boot?
Erling Haaland is the 4/6 favourite to win the Premier League Golden Boot — see our main Premier League top goalscorer odds page for the full market. This page focuses on the dark horses at 66/1 and bigger who offer the value.
More football odds and betting: Premier League top goalscorer odds · Latest football odds · When does the 2026/27 Premier League season start? · Best football betting sites
Odds were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change. Tips are opinion and not guaranteed. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org · GamCare.org.uk.
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.
