Bolton vs Cardiff betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
Four selections and all four are shots. Cardiff take 8.45 corners a game – the highest of any Championship side this weekend – and Bolton 5.95, so this is a fixture with volume at both ends even though neither side has been winning.
Bolton Wanderers vs Cardiff City Team Stats
Bolton Wanderers
- L2-3West Ham United08 Sep
- L0-4at Millwall05 Sep
- L2-3at Sheffield United01 Sep
- L0-1Lincoln City29 Aug
- D0-0at Queens Park Rangers22 Aug
- W2-1Preston North End15 Aug
Cardiff City
- D1-1Stoke City08 Sep
- L0-2at Portsmouth05 Sep
- L1-2at Queens Park Rangers02 Sep
- D2-2Sheffield United29 Aug
- D2-2at Derby County22 Aug
- D1-1Wrexham17 Aug
Bolton vs Cardiff Betting Tips
J. Moylan 3+ Shots — 10/11. Jack Moylan has had three or more shots in 6 of his last 10 for Cardiff City, at 3.91 per 90 – the highest shot rate of any player in this fixture. He has started all 6 this season.
J. Sheehan 3+ Shots — 12/5. Josh Sheehan has had three or more shots in 4 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 1.67 per 90 across 1,727 minutes – the longest record on this page – starting all 6 this season.
C. Ashford 3+ Shots — 6/4. Callum Ashford has had three or more shots in 5 of his last 10 for Bolton Wanderers, at 3.29 per 90 across 821 minutes.
P. Ng 1+ Shot on Target — 9/4. Perry Ng has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 10 for Cardiff City, at 0.45 per 90 across 1,410 minutes, starting all 6 this season.
Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Moylan 3+ Shots | 10/11 | 67% | 52% | +15 |
| J. Sheehan 3+ Shots | 12/5 | 40% | 29% | +11 |
| C. Ashford 3+ Shots | 6/4 | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| P. Ng 1+ Shot on Target | 9/4 | 40% | 31% | +9 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.
The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.
Player Props Bet Finder
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Every player bet365 have priced for this match, with each player’s record over his last ten alongside the price. No tips, no selections – the numbers and the odds side by side.
What We Are Leaving Out
Every card market. Thomas Parsons books 4.67 a game across his 82 EFL matches, but his record is the least stable of the officials appointed: 3.53 last season against 5.72 the one before. On a swing that wide we would rather say nothing.
Both teams to score at 4/6. Both sides are 12 of 20, which gives 60% against a fair 62%. The price is ahead of us.
Bolton vs Cardiff Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 36% Bolton, 28% the draw and 37% Cardiff.
Bolton have won 1 of their last 6 but score 2.18 a game at home. Cardiff have drawn 4 of their last 6 and conceded 20 in 11 away matches.
Our model has this at 41/26/33 against the market’s 36/28/37 – the closest agreement of the three televised games, and both readings say the same thing: a match neither side is likely to control.
More Championship Tips and Predictions
- Player Props Bet Finder
- Value bets
- Correct score tips
- Bet of the day
- Bet builder tips
- Championship tips
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.