Derby vs Birmingham betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
Five selections, and four of them are fouls markets. Derby have lost 4 of their last 6 and Birmingham have drawn 4 – a match where neither side is confident and both work hard for the ball, which is where fouls come from.
Derby County vs Birmingham City Team Stats
Derby County
- L0-1West Bromwich Albion09 Sep
- L0-3at West Ham United05 Sep
- W2-0at Portsmouth01 Sep
- L0-3Swansea City29 Aug
- D2-2Cardiff City22 Aug
- L1-2at Charlton Athletic15 Aug
Birmingham City
- L1-2at Norwich City09 Sep
- D2-2Wolverhampton06 Sep
- D1-1Southampton01 Sep
- W2-1at Wrexham28 Aug
- D2-2Bristol City22 Aug
- D0-0at Sheffield United15 Aug
Derby vs Birmingham Betting Tips
A. Priske 3+ Fouls Committed — 4/1. Adam Priske has committed three or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Birmingham City, at 2.23 per 90 across 1,294 minutes – the highest fouling rate of any player in this fixture. He has started all 6 this season.
L. Travis 2+ Fouls Drawn — 10/11. Lewis Travis has been fouled twice or more in 7 of his last 10 for Derby County, at 1.99 per 90 across 1,489 minutes, starting all 3 this season.
C. Taylor 1+ Foul Drawn — Evens. Charlie Taylor has been fouled in 6 of his last 10 for Derby County, at 0.83 per 90 across 540 minutes, starting all 6 this season.
S. Langas 2+ Fouls Committed — 3/1. Sondre Langas has committed two or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Birmingham City, at 1.16 per 90 across 852 minutes, starting all 6 this season.
S. Szmodics 1+ Shot on Target — 11/10. Sammie Szmodics has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Birmingham City, at 0.78 per 90 across 1,392 minutes, starting all 5 this season.
Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Priske 3+ Fouls Committed | 4/1 | 40% | 20% | +20 |
| L. Travis 2+ Fouls Drawn | 10/11 | 70% | 52% | +18 |
| C. Taylor 1+ Foul Drawn | Evens | 67% | 50% | +17 |
| S. Langas 2+ Fouls Committed | 3/1 | 40% | 25% | +15 |
| S. Szmodics 1+ Shot on Target | 11/10 | 60% | 48% | +12 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.
The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.
Player Props Bet Finder
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Every player bet365 have priced for this match, with each player’s record over his last ten alongside the price. No tips, no selections – the numbers and the odds side by side.
What We Are Leaving Out
Both teams to score at 5/6. Derby have seen goals at both ends in 10 of their last 20 and Birmingham in 13, which gives about 57% against a fair 50%. That is a three-point gap once the margin is taken out, and inside it rather than outside.
Every card market. The two sides average 3.93 cards between them, and John Busby books 3.61 across his 49 Championship matches – below the league average. The blend of 3.77 sits close enough to the line that there is nothing to argue with.
Derby vs Birmingham Prediction
We are predicting 1-1. The market makes it 28% Derby, 29% the draw and 44% Birmingham.
Birmingham have drawn 4 of their last 6 and scored in 13 of their last 20. Derby have won 1 of 6 and score 1.33 a game at home.
Our model has Derby at 37% against the market’s 28%, so we are a little keener on the home side than the price is – but both views agree this is close, and the draw at 29% is the outcome neither reading rules out.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.