Hearts vs Rapid Wien Prediction
We are predicting a 1-0 Hearts win. Our model gives them 56%, the draw 27% and Rapid Wien 17%, from expected goals of 1.40 to 0.63. Under 2.5 goals is where the numbers point, at 67%, and both teams to score comes out at just 35%.
Hearts are formidable at Tynecastle. They have scored twenty and conceded four in ten home matches, a rate of 0.40 against, and they have kept nine clean sheets across their last twenty.
Rapid Wien are the awkward opponent for that record. They have failed to score in six of their last twenty and manage 0.89 goals a game on the road, the lowest away scoring rate in this week’s ties. Over 2.5 goals has landed in only 30% of their matches, the lowest figure we have recorded from any side.
Unusually for a European tie, no league adjustment is needed. Scotland and Austria carry identical UEFA coefficients of 15.300, so the two records compare directly — the same situation as Celtic against LASK.
Hearts vs Rapid Wien Betting Tips
1. Under 2.5 Goals. This has landed in 14 of Rapid Wien’s last 20 matches and 9 of Hearts’. Rapid score 0.89 a game away and Hearts concede 0.40 at home, so the goals have to come from somewhere neither side reliably supplies.
2. A Red Card to Be Shown. Hearts’ matches have produced 11 red cards across their last 20, a rate of 0.55 a game and the highest of any side we have covered. Referee Manfredas Lukjancukas shows 0.23 a game across 104 career matches.
3. Hearts to Win to Nil. Nine clean sheets in twenty, 0.40 conceded at home, against a side that has failed to score in six of its last twenty.
Hearts vs Rapid Wien Stats
| Market | Hearts | Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.65 | 1.45 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Home scored / conceded | 2.00 / 0.40 | 1.91 / 0.82 |
| Away scored / conceded | 1.30 / 1.50 | 0.89 / 1.33 |
| Clean sheets | 9 of 20 | 8 of 20 |
| Failed to score | 2 of 20 | 6 of 20 |
| Shots per game | 14.05 | 10.95 |
| Shots on target | 5.00 | 3.58 |
| Cards in match | 4.55 | 3.47 |
| Red cards in match | 0.55 | 0.21 |
Figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches.
Hearts vs Rapid Wien Key Stats
- 11 red cards in 20 matches for Hearts, a rate of 0.55 a game and the highest of any side we have covered
- 4 goals conceded in 10 home matches for Hearts, at 0.40 a game
- 6 of 20 — matches in which Rapid Wien have failed to score
- 6 of 20 — Rapid Wien matches to go over 2.5 goals, the lowest rate we have recorded
- 9 clean sheets in 20 for Hearts, against 8 for Rapid Wien
- 4.42 yellow cards a game for referee Manfredas Lukjancukas across 104 career matches
- 66.50 final third entries a game for Hearts, against 53.47 for Rapid despite Rapid having more of the ball
Hearts vs Rapid Wien Team News
Hearts are without six players, five of them defenders. Malachi Fagan-Walcott, Stephen Kingsley and Christian Borchgrevink are injured, Craig Halkett is out until September with an achilles problem, Ageu has a thigh injury and Stuart Findlay is suspended.
Rapid Wien are also missing six. Dominic Vincze, Claudy Mbuyi, Martin Ndzie and Andrija Radulović are injured, Yusuf Demir is suspended, and Daniel Nunoo carries a return date of 21 August — the day after this match.
Hearts vs Rapid Wien Corners and Cards
Corners are close and not worth a price. Hearts take 5.30 a game to Rapid’s 4.68, with first-half figures of 2.20 and 2.26.
Cards are the page’s angle. Hearts’ matches produce 4.55 across both sides to Rapid’s 3.47, and referee Lukjancukas averages 4.42 — the two measures agree closely, which makes over 3.5 cards more reliable here than on most fixtures. It reads 57% on the teams and 64% on the referee.
The red card figure is the outlier. Hearts have seen 11 across their last twenty matches. A red card market is normally priced as though it never happens, and on this evidence it happens in roughly two Hearts games in five.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
