Leicester won two of their last twenty league matches and drew nine. Ipswich won ten and scored sixteen in nine at Portman Road. Both sets of figures come from the Championship; the tie is now Premier League against League One, and the market has it 59.5% to 18.3%.
Ipswich vs Leicester City
J. Philogene-Bidace 1+ Shot on Target
8/10Three, 2, 1, 2, 1 and 1 in his last six – on target every time, at 2.22 per 90 across 445 minutes. The best rate on the page by a distance.
The sample is the caution. Those 445 minutes are spread across substitute appearances and short starts, and a rate built on 60-minute spells does not automatically transfer to a full match.
L. Thomas 1+ Foul Drawn
8/10Three, 2, 1, 1, 4 and 2 in his last six – fouled every time, at 1.48 per 90 across 1,703 minutes.
The largest single sample of any player here and the steadiest run with it. Ipswich commit 11.75 fouls a game, the higher of the two sides.
K. McAteer 1+ Foul
8/10One, 1, 1, 1, 1 and 2 fouls in his last six – at least one every time, at 1.65 per 90 across 601 minutes.
Ipswich commit 11.75 fouls a game as a side and take 2.35 cards a match of their own, the higher of the two here.
J. Taylor 1+ Tackle
8/10Two, 4, 1, 2, 4 and 1 in his last six – a tackle in all six, at 2.29 per 90 across 905 minutes.
He also commits 1.59 fouls per 90 and has four yellows, so the tackle volume comes with a card risk attached.
H. Choudhury 2+ Tackles
7/10Four, 2, 3, 3, 2 and 0 in his last six – two or more in five of them, at 3.52 per 90.
The sample is 588 minutes and much of it in short spells, so the rate is strong but the minutes are the question rather than the ability.
D. Mukasa 1+ Shot
6/10One, 4, 3, 0, 1 and 7 in his last six, at 2.75 per 90 across 851 minutes.
Twenty-six shots but only seven on target, so the volume is real and the accuracy is not. A shots line rather than a shots on target one.
Over 3.5 Cards
7/10Ipswich matches averaged 4.65 cards last season and Leicester’s 3.40, giving 4.03 between them.
Lewis Smith books 3.90 a game across 48 Championship matches in his last three seasons. His published career figure of 3.24 is dragged down by National League seasons recorded as zero.
Ipswich Clean Sheet
6/10Seven clean sheets in twenty and 0.78 conceded across nine home matches.
Leicester scored 0.89 a game away from home, the lowest figure on the page, and won two of twenty overall.
J. Clarke’s Fouls Drawn Average Flatters Him
2.49 per 90 is the best rate at Ipswich, but the run reads 0, 1, 1, 0, 1 and 0 – fouled in three of six, and never more than once. The average is carried by earlier matches and this is not a bet at that line.
A. Matusiwa Is the Largest Ipswich Sample and He Is Doubtful
Thirty-six tackles across 1,591 minutes is more than double any other Ipswich midfielder, but his return date is match day. Nothing on this page is built on him.
- 1Ipswich to Win10 of Ipswich’s last 20
- 2Over 1.5 Goals18 of Ipswich’s last 20, 16 of Leicester’s
- 3J. Philogene-Bidace 1+ Shot on Target6 of 6
- 4L. Thomas 1+ Foul Drawn6 of 6
Ipswich to Win
Ten wins in twenty with 16 scored in nine at Portman Road, at 1.78 a game.
Ipswich are a Premier League side now and Leicester a League One one, and the market has it 59.5 against 18.3.
Over 1.5 Goals
Ipswich went over in 18 of their last 20 and Leicester in 16.
Ipswich conceded 0.78 a game at home, so this leans on their scoring rather than a shootout.
J. Philogene-Bidace 1+ Shot on Target
Three, 2, 1, 2, 1 and 1 in his last six – on target every time, at 2.22 per 90.
The sample is 445 minutes, so the rate is strong but thin. He has started only a handful of those.
L. Thomas 1+ Foul Drawn
Three, 2, 1, 1, 4 and 2 in his last six, at 1.48 per 90 across 1,703 minutes.
The largest sample of any player on the page and the steadiest run with it.
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches. Both were Championship clubs last season.
Ipswich vs Leicester Key Stats and Insights
- 10 wins in 20 for Ipswich against two for Leicester, who drew nine of theirs.
- 18 of 20 Ipswich matches went over 1.5 goals, and they failed to score in only two.
- 16 goals in 9 home games at Portman Road, with 0.78 conceded a match.
- 6.60 shots from outside the box a game for Leicester against 8.10 inside it — the narrowest ratio we have logged from any side, and a symptom of a team that could not get near goal.
- 3.90 cards a game for Lewis Smith across 48 Championship matches, against a published career figure of 3.24 that folds in National League seasons recorded as zero.
- 2.35 own cards a game for Ipswich, the higher of the two sides, alongside 11.75 fouls.
- 3 clean sheets in 20 for Leicester, against seven for Ipswich.
Ipswich vs Leicester Bet Builder Tips
Ipswich to Win — 10 of Ipswich’s Last 20
Ten wins in twenty, and the home record carries it: sixteen goals in nine at Portman Road at 1.78 a game, with 0.78 conceded. Leicester won two of their twenty and drew nine, scoring 0.89 a game away from home — the lowest figure on the page.
The gap is wider than those numbers suggest, because both records were made in the same division and the tie is not. Ipswich are a Premier League side now and Leicester a League One one. The market prices that at 59.5% to 18.3% and our model agrees inside a point, which is rare on a two-division tie.
What beats it is a Leicester side defending the way nine draws suggests they can. Those draws came from matches they did not lose rather than matches they controlled, and they kept only three clean sheets in twenty — but a goalless ninety minutes is live, and it is the outcome that costs you.
Over 1.5 Goals — 18 of Ipswich’s Last 20, 16 of Leicester’s
Eighteen of Ipswich’s twenty cleared 1.5 and they failed to score in only two. Thirty-five goals across the sample at 1.75 a game, with 2.65 big chances created and ten shots inside the box a match.
The leg leans on Ipswich rather than the fixture. Leicester scored 21 goals in their twenty and managed 0.89 a game on the road, so the second goal is far more likely to come from the home side than to arrive at both ends. Sixteen of Leicester’s own matches went over, but eleven of those were at home where they conceded 1.91 a game.
The risk is the shape of a cup tie rather than the record. If Ipswich lead inside twenty minutes and take the pace out of it, a 1-0 is exactly how those evenings finish. Their 0.78 conceded at home is the figure that makes that plausible, and it is why we have taken 1.5 rather than the over 2.5 goals line.
J. Philogene-Bidace 1+ Shot on Target — 6 of His Last 6
Three, two, one, two, one and one in his last six — on target every time, at 2.22 per 90 across 445 minutes. No other player in either squad has cleared one in all six.
The rate is real and the minutes are not. Those appearances ran 62, 67, 25, 70, 65 and 32 minutes. A player producing 2.22 per 90 from fifty-minute spells is delivering closer to 1.2 in the time he actually gets, and if he starts on the bench the leg can fail without him touching the ball. He is the reason this build is worth a price, and the reason it might not land. It is the same question we work through on every one of our shots on target tips.
What makes it worth having is the opposition. Leicester conceded 1.91 a game at home last season, kept three clean sheets in twenty and have lost twelve players this summer. Against a side entering the final third 63.60 times a match, one shot on target in an hour is a low bar.
L. Thomas 1+ Foul Drawn — 6 of His Last 6
Three, two, one, one, four and two in his last six — fouled every time, at 1.48 per 90 across 1,703 minutes. That is the largest single sample of any player on this page and the steadiest run with it.
Two things make it the safest of the four. The minutes are a full season of starts rather than a rate extrapolated from cameos, so what he has done is what he does. And the market it depends on is the opposition’s behaviour, not his own form — Ipswich commit 11.75 fouls a game and take 2.35 cards a match of their own, the higher figures on both counts.
The one argument against is the gap in class. A Leicester side pinned back for long spells has less of the ball to be fouled in possession of, and Thomas drawing four against Hull came in a match Leicester were competing in. Even so, his floor across six matches is one.
How the Four Fit Together
Two player legs and two team legs, and the two team legs are close to the same bet — if Ipswich win they have almost certainly cleared 1.5 goals between them, so the result and the goals line are buying one outcome twice. That shortens the price rather than spreading the risk, which is a normal way to build and something we set out in full on our bet builder tips page.
Philogene-Bidace is the leg that could kill it before kick-off. Luke Thomas is the one that would need the tie itself to go wrong.
Ipswich vs Leicester Prediction
We are predicting 2-0 to Ipswich. Our model gives Ipswich 59%, the draw 23% and Leicester 18%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 0.80. The market says 59.5%, 22.2% and 18.3% — agreement inside a point, which is rare on a two-division tie and worth more than either figure alone. Prices vary more than usual on cup ties, so it is worth comparing UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Carabao Cup and Betting Tips
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- Total goals tips across tonight’s ties
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.