Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest betting tips, bet builder legs and predictions from our stats model, weighing recent form, player props and the latest odds to find the best bets.
3 selections, and the sequences behind them run ten matches rather than six. Andy Madley books 3.07 yellows a game.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Team Stats
Aston Villa
- W3-2at Club Brugge KV08 Sep
- D0-0at Hull City05 Sep
- L0-1Arsenal31 Aug
- L1-2at Paris Saint-Germain12 Aug
- W2-1at Manchester City24 May
- W3-0at SC Freiburg20 May
Nottingham Forest
- D0-0Tottenham Hotspur05 Sep
- D2-2at Liverpool29 Aug
- L0-1Leeds United22 Aug
- D1-1Bournemouth24 May
- L2-3at Manchester United17 May
- D1-1Newcastle United10 May
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Betting Tips
J. McGinn 3+ Shots — 4/1. John McGinn has had 3 or more shots in 4 of his last 10 for Aston Villa, at 1.65 per 90 across 1,473 minutes, and has started 5 of 5 this season.
E. Buendía 3+ Fouls Drawn — 2/1. Emiliano Buendía has been fouled three times or more in 5 of his last 10 for Aston Villa, at 2.65 per 90 across 1,257 minutes, and has started 5 of 5 this season.
D. Ndoye 2+ Fouls Drawn — 6/4. Dan Ndoye has been fouled twice or more in 5 of his last 10 for Nottingham Forest, at 2.89 per 90 across 467 minutes, and has started 3 of 3 this season.
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Potential Bet Builder Legs Based on Our Stats Model
| Selection | Odds | Our model | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McGinn 3+ Shots | 4/1 | 40% | 20% | +20 |
| E. Buendía 3+ Fouls Drawn | 2/1 | 50% | 33% | +17 |
| D. Ndoye 2+ Fouls Drawn | 6/4 | 50% | 40% | +10 |
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin — so an edge of two or three points is within that margin rather than a genuine disagreement. Odds correct at time of writing. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.
These are legs worth considering inside a bet builder, where several combine into a price worth taking. Every one is a market where our stats model gives the selection more chance of landing than the bookmaker’s odds imply.
Our model figure is the probability our own data gives the selection. The market figure is the probability implied by the price, which includes the bookmaker’s margin – so an edge of two or three points sits inside that margin rather than being a genuine disagreement.
The bet builder below is the one we have picked from these markets.
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
We are predicting 2-1 to Aston Villa. The market makes it 44% Villa, 28% the draw and 29% Forest.
Villa score 1.90 a game at home and Forest have conceded 13 in 10 away. Our model gives Villa 51% against the market’s 44%, so we are marginally keener on the home side than the price is.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.