Our Coventry vs Hull bet builder tips, predictions and best bets compare every record against the price. Matt Crooks has made three tackles in four of his last six and is 5/4.
Ellis Simms is 3/10 to hit the target with two in six. All four of our legs are Hull selections, and the reason is worth reading.
Coventry vs Hull City
Team figures cover each side’s last 20 league matches, all in the Championship. Prices are bet365 and were checked on 28 August.
Coventry vs Hull Key Stats and Insights
- 15 Coventry players are priced by bet365 who appear nowhere in our data, including two of the three shortest goalscorer prices on the card. Their squad has turned over almost entirely since these figures were made.
- 2.60 own cards a game for Hull against Coventry’s 1.35 — the widest own-card gap between two sides in our records.
- 8 clean sheets in 20 for Coventry, who conceded 0.9 a game both home and away.
- 33.40 clearances a game for Hull against Coventry’s 22.40, with 44.6% possession.
- 4 of 6 for Matt Crooks making three or more tackles, at 5/4 — that is 67% against an implied 44%.
- 2 of 6 for Ellis Simms hitting the target, priced at 3/10 — an implied 77% against a 33% record.
- 18 goals and 41 shots on target for Oli McBurnie across the full Championship season, against the 7 and 23 our twenty-match window shows.
- £99m spent by Coventry and £75m by Hull on players who appear nowhere in these figures — fifteen and eight respectively.
- 9 unavailable at Hull, including Joe Gelhardt, who appears in six of our seven player tables.
Coventry vs Hull Bet Builder Tips
M. Crooks 3+ Tackles — 4 of His Last 6, 5/4
Four, five, two, four, two and one in his last six, at 3.00 per 90 across 1,228 minutes. Four of six clearing three is 67% and the price implies 44% — the widest gap between record and market anywhere on this page.
Forty-one tackles is the highest total in either squad, and the shape of the fixture supports it. Hull make 18.05 tackles a game to Coventry’s 14.20 and clear the ball 33.40 times a match against 22.40. They hold 44.6% of the ball. A side built to defend gives its holding midfielder a great deal to do, and Coventry enter the final third 65.20 times a game.
What beats it is the one in six. That came at Charlton in a full ninety minutes, so it is a genuine floor rather than a short appearance — more on why the sequence matters more than the per-90 on our tackles and fouls prop bets page.
O. McBurnie 1+ Shot on Target — 5 of His Last 6, 4/7
Two, one, two, nought, five and one in his last six, at 1.20 per 90 across 1,724 minutes. Five of six is 83% against an implied 64%.
Twenty-three on target from 40 shots is the largest attacking sample in either squad by some margin, and the twenty-match window understates him: across the full Championship season he took 77 shots, hit 41 on target and scored 18 goals in 3,176 minutes. With Joe Gelhardt out — he appears in six of our seven Hull tables — McBurnie is the forward everything runs through.
The 2+ line is the longer version of the same view and pays 11/4 on a record of three in six, or 50% against an implied 27%. That is the bigger edge and it is a pointer above; this is the version that belongs in a build, because a leg with a firm floor does less damage to the other three. Our shots on target prop bets page sets out when to take which.
L. Millar 1+ Foul Drawn — 5 of His Last 6, 4/7
One, nought, two, one, two and two in his last six, at 1.54 per 90 across 1,231 minutes. Fouled in five of six is 83% and the price implies 64%.
He is also one of the few Hull attacking players with a full season of minutes who is fit. The squad list carries nine unavailable, and Millar has come through a leg problem that had him doubtful earlier in the month.
What beats it is Coventry’s discipline. They commit 9.75 fouls a game, the lower of the two figures and among the lowest in our data, and take only 1.35 cards. That is the honest argument against this leg and against the 2+ version at 11/4 — the player’s record is strong, the opposition’s habits are not helpful.
Hull City Over 3.5 Team Corners — 4.05 a Game, 5/6
Hull took 4.05 corners a match last season, which clears this line about 58% of the time. The price implies 55%. A slim edge rather than a strong one, and it is the fourth leg for that reason.
The case is in the shape rather than the volume. Hull enter the final third 62.50 times a game — almost as often as Coventry’s 65.20 — while holding 44.6% of the ball. That is a side arriving quickly, putting the ball into the box and giving it back, which produces corners without producing sustained pressure.
Coventry are the argument against. They kept eight clean sheets in twenty and conceded 0.9 a game both home and away, and a defence that comfortable does not concede many set pieces. Our corner predictions page has the match line at over 9.5, which on these two sides’ 9.10 combined we make a 43% shot against an implied 52% — the team line is the better of the two.
How the Four Fit Together
All four are Hull selections, which is unusual and worth explaining honestly. Both squads have been rebuilt — Coventry have spent around £99m on six players and Hull around £75m on eight, and none of them appears in these figures.
The difference is that three Hull players with full seasons behind them survived the window intact and are still priced: Crooks, Millar and McBurnie. Coventry’s equivalents did not. Romain Esse is in all seven of our Coventry tables and priced in none of the markets, and Haji Wright is out until November. So this is a bet on three specific records rather than on Hull as a side.
The concentration is a real risk. Crooks needs Hull defending, Millar and McBurnie need them attacking, and the corners leg needs them getting up the pitch without keeping the ball. Those are not the same match, which spreads it a little — but a comfortable Coventry win hurts three of the four. Our bet builder tips page explains why we would normally split across both sides.
The leg most likely to let it down is the corners, and it is Coventry’s eight clean sheets rather than Hull’s 4.05.
Coventry vs Hull Prediction
We are predicting 1-0 to Coventry. Our model gives them 52%, the draw 24% and Hull 24%, from expected goals of 1.72 and 1.09.
The market says 50.3%, 25.8% and 23.9% — agreement inside two points on every outcome. That is the closest our model and a price have come in a fortnight, and it is the first fixture in that time needing no adjustment at all. Both records are Championship figures, both clubs came up together, and nothing has changed division.
The soft spot is personnel rather than method. Coventry’s squad has turned over almost entirely and Haji Wright, their leading scorer with eight goals, is out until November. If anything our 52% is generous to the home side. Compare UK bookmakers before you place it.
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More Premier League and Betting Tips
- Tackles and fouls prop bets for every fixture we cover
- Shots on target prop bets this weekend
- Corner predictions across the round
- Premier League betting tips all season
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.